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Rainshadow

2018-19 Cold Season Model QPF/Snow Modeling Performance/Verification. Jan 20th-21st Event. SREF Wins The QPF & WEFS Comes In Last. NAM/GFS Come In Last With Snowfall. Euro Wins Forecasting Nothing.

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The nothing event early on January 3rd was won by the Op EC (its first win since Nov 25th).  Four of its six evaluated forecasts were correctly zero.  At the other end of the spectrum in spite of initially correctly forecasting nothing on December 31st, it was wet enough from there on in to out WEFS the WEFS.  Congrats two evaluated 2019 events so far and two last place finishes for the NAM.

NEW2018-9qpf.xlsx

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On 1/2/2019 at 6:08 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

1/2 12z: 1.1 

1/3 0z: .7

1/3 12z: .48

eps

1/2 12z: .95

1/3 0z: .8

1/3 12z: .6

Thank the WEFS for this,  with the 00z/5th this morning we can conclude this current event (PHL 0.43" so far) and start the next one ending Tuesday the 8th morning.

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On 1/2/2019 at 6:08 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

1/2 12z: 1.1 

1/3 0z: .7

1/3 12z: .48

1/4 0z: .6

1/4 12z: .85

1/5 0z: .62

eps

1/2 12z: .95

1/3 0z: .8

1/3 12z: .6

1/4 0z: .7

1/4 12z: 1

1/5 0z: .52

0.57" event total for PHL. 

 

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euro

1/5 0z:  .12

1/5 12z .15

1/6 0z: .11

1/6 12z: .18

1/7 0z: .17

1/7 12z: .23

eps

1/5 0z: .13

1/5 12z  .17

1/6 0z: .13

1/5 0z:  .12

1/5 12z .15

1/6 0z: .11

1/6 12z: .16

1/7 0z: .16

1/7 12z: .19

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

euro

1/5 0z:  .12

1/5 12z .15

1/6 0z: .11

eps

1/5 0z: .13

1/5 12z  .17

1/6 0z: .13

Is this just through 12z Tuesday or through anything through Wednesday?

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Well, well , well the WEFS on a bit of a hot streak, winning two of the last four events.  The OP EC was very NAMish with this event, wet, then dry, then wet.  Large variations are not good for accuracy.

NEW2018-9qpf.xlsx

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43 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Is this just through 12z Tuesday or through anything through Wednesday?

12z wed

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53 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

12z wed

Ok thanks, wanted to do the same for the others.

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Break up the WEFS!  Two events in a row it came in first place and three of the last five.  Insanity didnt totally rule as the NAM ended in last place, again.  The convective nature didnt hurt the WEFS during the CFP. 

NEW2018-9qpf.xlsx

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On 1/6/2019 at 1:00 PM, tombo82685 said:

12z wed

Sorry for not posting this sooner, but we can start the weekend system comparison with the 12z on the 10th.

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euro

1/10 12z: .1 snow 1"

1/11 0z: .12 snow 1.2

1/11 12z: .18 snow 1.8"

1/12 0z: .12 snow 1.2

1/12 12z: .12 snow 1.2

1/13 0z: .27 snow 2.7

eps

1/10 12z: .22 snow 1.9

1/11 0z: .16 snow 1.6

1/11 12z: .2 snow 2

1/12 0z: .15 snow 1.5

1/12 12z: .27 snow 2.7

1/13 0z: .22 snow 2.2

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On 1/11/2019 at 8:47 AM, tombo82685 said:

euro

1/10 12z: .1 snow 1"

1/11 0z: .12 snow 1.2

1/11 12z: .18 snow 1.8"

eps

1/10 12z: .22 snow 1.9

1/11 0z: .16 snow 1.6

1/11 12z: .2 snow 2

Let's go thru the 00z run this evening with this. 

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On 1/11/2019 at 8:47 AM, tombo82685 said:

euro

1/10 12z: .1 snow 1"

1/11 0z: .12 snow 1.2

1/11 12z: .18 snow 1.8"

1/12 0z: .12 snow 1.2

1/12 12z: .12 snow 1.2

eps

1/10 12z: .22 snow 1.9

1/11 0z: .16 snow 1.6

1/11 12z: .2 snow 2

1/12 0z: .15 snow 1.5

1/12 12z: .27 snow 2.7

This is how the NAM pulls out a defeat from the jaws of victory:

1/10/12z: 1.5"

1/11/00z: 1.3"

1/11/12z: 1.3"

1/12/00z: 1.3"

1/12/12z: 7.5"

1/13/00z: 1.7"

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

This is how the NAM pulls out a defeat from the jaws of victory:

1/10/12z: 1.5"

1/11/00z: 1.3"

1/11/12z: 1.3"

1/12/00z: 1.3"

1/12/12z: 7.5"

1/13/00z: 1.7"

That’s why I haven’t been banned yet either 

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29 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That’s why I haven’t been banned yet either 

Since you can still post, can you add the 00z/13th run for the EC & EPS?

 

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Since you can still post, can you add the 00z/13th run for the EC & EPS?

 

Will do when I get home 

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On 1/11/2019 at 8:47 AM, tombo82685 said:

euro

1/10 12z: .1 snow 1"

1/11 0z: .12 snow 1.2

1/11 12z: .18 snow 1.8"

1/12 0z: .12 snow 1.2

1/12 12z: .12 snow 1.2

1/13 0z: .27 snow 2.7

eps

1/10 12z: .22 snow 1.9

1/11 0z: .16 snow 1.6

1/11 12z: .2 snow 2

1/12 0z: .15 snow 1.5

1/12 12z: .27 snow 2.7

1/13 0z: .22 snow 2.2

I have to make sure closed low precip doesnt reach PHL.  1.4" / .12", the OP Euro might win on both fronts.  The SREF is the biggest loser.  Once the arw physics family go ballistic within the SREF one is better off looking at the 12z run of the LFM from February 19, 1979 for more insight on qpf/snow.

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Break up the Operational EC.  As far as PHL itself was concerned, I dont think it could have done much better.  It had three perfect pcpn amount forecasts and won both the rain & snow side.  On the other end of the spectrum was the SREF which was cruising along in competition with the EC until the arw physics members decided that 30 cups of coffee before each model run was not enough.  The moment this happens, a space heater is more useful on Venus.  All but one is an arw:   The top one is 21" and this was the day run on Saturday, not some fantasy run time.

1.JPG.b2eb44e12cf04d8eb74a238714fb739b.JPG

The EC has now won both snow events so far this season.  The one bad NAM sounding run cost it first place on the snow side of the house.

NEW2018-9qpf.xlsx

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On 1/13/2019 at 2:46 PM, tombo82685 said:

Will do when I get home 

We can start Thursday night/Friday morning event with the 00z run this morning.

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euro

1/15 0z: .2 snow .4

1/15 12z: .17  snow .6

1/16 0z: .08 snow .8

1/16 12z: .08 snow .7

1/17 0z:  .06 snow .6

1/17 12z:  .08 snow .8

eps

1/15 0z: .2 snow 1

1/15 12z: .17 snow .9

1/16 0z: .11 snow 1.1

1/16 12z:  .08 snow .7

1/17 0z: .07 snow .7

1/17 12z: .07 snow .7

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On 1/15/2019 at 9:20 AM, tombo82685 said:

euro

1/15 0z: .2 snow .4

1/15 12z: .17  snow .6

1/16 0z: .08 snow .8

1/16 12z: .08 snow .7

1/17 0z:  .06 snow .6

eps

1/15 0z: .2 snow 1

1/15 12z: .17 snow .9

1/16 0z: .11 snow 1.1

1/16 12z:  .08 snow .7

1/17 0z: .07 snow .7

I think we can stop with the 12z run today, we will have six sounding model runs and it is practically starting right after 7 pm.

We can start the weekend system with the 12z run today.

 

 

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euro

1/17 12z: 1.52

1/18 0z: 1.73

1/18 12z: 1.3

1/19 0z: 1.5

1/19 12z: 1.5

eps

1/17 12z: 1.52 snow .5

1/18 0z: 1.6 snow .3

1/18 12z: 1.2 snow .2

1/19 0z: 1.2 snow .1

1/19 12z: 1.3

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PHL had 0.9" snow and .06" w/e for this morning's event (1/18).  Going to keep in the EC family on this one.  I believe either the EC or EPS has won every snow event so far for PHL.

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1/18 verification.  Well I forgot the GFS was changing the snow to rain and even though its qpf was wetter than wet (last place finish), its snowfall forecast was not as off as it was right for the wrong reason as it was changing the snow to rain.

The OP EC won the qpf side of the contest.  Snowfall ended up being a tie between the GEFS & EPS for first place and everybody's favorite too snowy NAM coming in last.  There have been only 3 snow event so far, so in fairness this is the first time the NAM has come in last wrt snowfall forecast.

NEW2018-9qpf.xlsx

 

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

PHL had 0.9" snow and .06" w/e for this morning's event (1/18).  Going to keep in the EC family on this one.  I believe either the EC or EPS has won every snow event so far for PHL.

Did they change it? I’m seeing 1” at philly intl

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