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Qtown Snow

Potential storm threats fall 2018

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

There goes the vacation and another weekend.

PNA spike and some trailing energy out ahead, even some I guess it's tropical energy skirting the coast, either way, that is yet another respectable look.   Give this to me Jan 1 and I'll get no sleep.  

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh150_trend.gif

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So this is what I'm watching for Friday-Sunday period. Models over the last day or so are getting bullish on another trough that swings through the area with a reinforcing shot of cold air. This trough will be lead with a piece of energy (northern stream). To the south we have our southern low leftover as the trough from Tuesday's system splits and leaves this piece of energy behind. Also the reason why the cold shot this coming week was shortened. So in order to get a storm to hit us, we need the norther piece of energy to dig further south and phase in with the southern low down in the southeast.  Basically we need to see this trough get stronger and sharpen. There will be ridging out ahead of both these disturbances same as we see with Tuesday's system.  So we will have a warm er airmass on southerly flow out ahead which will make it harder for frozen precip south of the pocs. The flow is starting to become progressive, so this isn't a cutter IMO as the ridge out west is coming east, so things will be moving a long. This is a coastal or whiff scenario in terms of bigger system. We could also just get the northern stream energy which would bring some lighter precip in and maybe form a miller B type storm that blows up past us. In order to get wintry precip outside of the poconos you really need to get the cold air in from the northern stream low first then allow enough ridging to the east to slow the boundary just offshore to give a baroclinic divergence for cyclogenesis to form. You could also bank on the just the northern stream energy swinging through and get a rain to snow scenario as well. 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_7.png

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27 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

So this is what I'm watching for Friday-Sunday period. Models over the last day or so are getting bullish on another trough that swings through the area with a reinforcing shot of cold air. This trough will be lead with a piece of energy (northern stream). To the south we have our southern low leftover as the trough from Tuesday's system splits and leaves this piece of energy behind. Also the reason why the cold shot this coming week was shortened. So in order to get a storm to hit us, we need the norther piece of energy to dig further south and phase in with the southern low down in the southeast.  Basically we need to see this trough get stronger and sharpen. There will be ridging out ahead of both these disturbances same as we see with Tuesday's system.  So we will have a warm er airmass on southerly flow out ahead which will make it harder for frozen precip south of the pocs. The flow is starting to become progressive, so this isn't a cutter IMO as the ridge out west is coming east, so things will be moving a long. This is a coastal or whiff scenario in terms of bigger system. We could also just get the northern stream energy which would bring some lighter precip in and maybe form a miller B type storm that blows up past us. In order to get wintry precip outside of the poconos you really need to get the cold air in from the northern stream low first then allow enough ridging to the east to slow the boundary just offshore to give a baroclinic divergence for cyclogenesis to form. You could also bank on the just the northern stream energy swinging through and get a rain to snow scenario as well. 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_7.png

Very nice writeup, concise and realistic.  Thanks again for your tireless snowflake tracking! 

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well the euro jumped on a piece of the southern energy and brings that up for a cold rain for Gigi next friday. The northern stream low is starting to dig to the west in the plains. This allows hgt rises in the east allowing for the southern stream energy to come north, but with no cold air. Much deeper trough in the plains as the ridge out west is stronger. There is still a good amount of energy sitting in the gulf coast area. Would expect that northern energy to phase in with that to produce a storm too with the looks of it a couple days later. 

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The southern low that brings a cold rain Friday stalls just offshore as the WAR keeps it pinned in. The northern stream energy then catches up but the cold is delayed due to the main h5 vort being up in the lakes so you have southerly flow a loft. Once that catches up to the low offshore it becomes a glorified miller b and crushes the mtns in northern new england. 

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On 11/8/2018 at 2:24 PM, tombo82685 said:

Euro with 3-6” middle of next week over to sleet. Dc 6-12. Leaves southern energy behind while northern stream supplies cold with storm on tuesday

 

On 11/8/2018 at 2:37 PM, tombo82685 said:

Really wacko solution doubt it has any support in eps

 

On 11/8/2018 at 10:23 PM, susqushawn said:

This Board in nearly in mid-season form.   Cutting our teeth on phantom D7 winter threats.  It's a thing of beauty.   :abomsnow:

Year for wacky solutions?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh102_trend.gif

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2 other chances I'm watching. I would watch this northern stream vort associated with the trough that swings through this weekend. If the mountains don't carve it up could possibly lead to a period of snow showers/lgt snow if it takes a track under us. That would be Sunday/monday morninggfs_z500_vort_us_25.png

 

I'd also watch this vort which is associated with the trough that swings through this weekend. A piece of energy gets left back in the Rockies and looks to eject out early to mid next week. Looks like the air could possible cold enough for some wintry fun if the -enao builds in gfs_z500_vort_us_28.pnga bit better holding the confluence in place. 

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On 11/8/2018 at 5:14 PM, tombo82685 said:

Except, don’t use bud light. That wouldn’t be a treasure that would be a punishment 

You’re right. Use Coors.

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Long shot, but this coffee cup once closed low ejecting under the ridge currently has no room to move up the coast, and no northern stream energy to phase with.   NW flow over NE shuts the door, and PNA spike too far east.  That said, mid range has been highly variable in our current pattern, -NAO block, depicted by a fancy top hat, is in a good position, so I'll tag the potential, then watch this drift innoculously out to sea in 10 days.

20181114_062130.png

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6 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Long shot, but this coffee cup once closed low ejecting under the ridge currently has no room to move up the coast, and no northern stream energy to phase with.   NW flow over NE shuts the door, and PNA spike too far east.  That said, mid range has been highly variable in our current pattern, -NAO block, depicted by a fancy top hat, is in a good position, so I'll tag the potential, then watch this drift innoculously out to sea in 10 days.

20181114_062130.png

ok cool there's this storm...now, all we need, a ton more cold air

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

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13 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Long shot, but this coffee cup once closed low ejecting under the ridge currently has no room to move up the coast, and no northern stream energy to phase with.   NW flow over NE shuts the door, and PNA spike too far east.  That said, mid range has been highly variable in our current pattern, -NAO block, depicted by a fancy top hat, is in a good position, so I'll tag the potential, then watch this drift innoculously out to sea in 10 days.

 

Good write up Shawn, def has a storm look to it. Only thing is once we get into later next week we start to feel a little pac flow in response to the trough crashing in to the west coast. The ridge over the rockies/plains coming east is associated with that airmass. So while a storm could develop cold air may be lacking. We will see. 

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