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Qtown Snow

December 9th-10th Winter Storm Threat

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Only saw through 96hrs on fv3, but after hr 96 looks a bit better. Def some better PVA working in and confluence easing up a bit. Still don't think it will be enough whenever precip maps come out

 

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fv3 def looks better than the gfs at h5. Here is a comparison. Can see confluence out a bit better and better flow bending back to the coast

fv3p_z500_vort_us_20.gif

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Can see where the gfs has that canadian vort it's much stronger than the fv3 

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Just now, phillysports11 said:

Inching closee to us?

It’s trying to. Patience is a virtue in these situations (which I don’t think anybody here, myself included, has).

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3 minutes ago, phillysports11 said:

Inching closee to us?

Comes down to confluence and phasing of southern and northern vorts over plains. 

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3 minutes ago, cg41386 said:

It’s trying to. Patience is a virtue in these situations (which I don’t think anybody here, myself included, has).

This 

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I won’t be around for euro, so someone else will have to handle pbp. Good luck, hope for good trends. 🤞🏻 

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23 minutes ago, Feb said:

Nice 

End result is the same. The key is the confluence. Even with a sharper looking trough, that nw flow kills the precip shield. 

 

GFS & GEFS really locking in. 

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16 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

End result is the same. The key is the confluence. Even with a sharper looking trough, that nw flow kills the precip shield. 

 

GFS & GEFS really locking in. 

Lol gfs and GEFS locking in??? Sorry but no 

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If you call this locking in your definition of it is different then mine 

CCE5084A-373E-444F-AA08-0112F4D52679.gif

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5 minutes ago, Feb said:

Lol gfs and GEFS locking in??? Sorry but no 

Not saying it’s right or wrong, but this isn’t too shabby for 100+ hours out. 

FA4BF082-14D9-4667-ADE4-BB23B575BEA2.gif

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Just now, irishbri74 said:

Not saying it’s right or wrong, but this isn’t too shabby for 100+ hours out. 

FA4BF082-14D9-4667-ADE4-BB23B575BEA2.gif

That’s awful 

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Just now, Feb said:

That’s awful 

Feb, in a way it has been locked in to a southern solution, of course we can expect the GFS to bounce around run to run, but so has every other model...who cares, lets move on to the 12z EURO

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Just now, Heisenberg said:

Feb, in a way it has been locked in to a southern solution, of course we can expect the GFS to bounce around run to run, but so has every other model...who cares, lets move on to the 12z EURO

My first question is why care about it? It’s history in a month. 

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Through 96, heights are the same on the EC, less phasing on the backside trough (couldnjust be a timing thing). Confluence a touch stronger here.

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1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

EURO is south, but also way slower when comparing to GEM 

Slower than GFS, FV3 also

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5 minutes ago, Feb said:

My first question is why care about it? It’s history in a month. 

I’m sure you’d feel different if it showed a hit...

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