Jump to content

Qtown Snow

December 9th-10th Winter Storm Threat

Recommended Posts

Hi I am Andy.  I deserve some award for recognizing this threat existed on October 21st.  ;)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 EPS are starting to show to potential periods to watch for. First one is around the 5th which looks to be an anafrontal type wave along the boundary coming east. Think that one has a better chance of wet rather than white. Se ridge is going to put up a fight so it may take a little time to get the cold to the coast, but could set up a third wave after the 5th. They also have the period between the 8th and 10th as potential, this one seems better as the cold air will already be in place. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

 EPS are starting to show to potential periods to watch for. First one is around the 5th which looks to be an anafrontal type wave along the boundary coming east. Think that one has a better chance of wet rather than white. Se ridge is going to put up a fight so it may take a little time to get the cold to the coast, but could set up a third wave after the 5th. They also have the period between the 8th and 10th as potential, this one seems better as the cold air will already be in place. 

Gefs have the 8th-10th as a primary west with coastal transfer too far north in NE, similar to most recent storm.   Same on EPS or do some of the members show the primary below us?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Gefs have the 8th-10th as a primary west with coastal transfer too far north in NE, similar to most recent storm.   Same on EPS or do some of the members show the primary below us?

looks more like a coastal

eps_slp_lows_ma_49.png

eps_slp_lows_ma_51.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Storm 1, no chance.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_23.png.2723b5e993c84d93dd35eb8c473fe10d.png

Storm 2, limited chance.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_33.png.194ef0081c52cc6cc91ccbbff36fccce.png

Storm 3, best chance, but alas, hr 300

1531447029_gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_51(1).png.70dcd7218bb41a5befa7e1cbe8b69092.png

Then some version of :smiley-flamethrower:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

Gefs have the 8th-10th as a primary west with coastal transfer too far north in NE, similar to most recent storm.   Same on EPS or do some of the members show the primary below us?

 

1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

looks more like a coastal

That period doesn't look bad actually with STJ and polar jet combining along the east coast. Could get something at beginning or end of cold snap.  06 fv3 below. Will take a while to sort out the details.

fv3p_z500a_namer_fh240-324.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gfs showing the potential for that dec 8th wave

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Gfs showing the potential for that dec 8th wave

GEFS not bad either. Consistent with last nights runs. Could be a better threat for I95, MA and even the SE, if the convergence and STJ pan out.

f240.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro/eps with a milder day 10 solution per TT,  more rain threats

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Euro/eps with a milder day 10 solution per TT,  more rain threats

Eps have a milder day 10 solution?

EDA6DDB7-58A3-450A-A7C4-BF2EEFDB34EB.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Feb said:

Eps have a milder day 10 solution?

Yeah, its not as mild as the euro, but it is milder than ytday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

Yeah, its not as mild as the euro, but it is milder than ytday.

yea, the energy that comes onshore the west coast pumps a ridge out ahead of it as it traverses eastward. It gets flattened out pretty good as it does so, but def a milder look from last night. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the eps I would say there are three periods of interest before the pattern goes down the toilet. first would be 5-6th time frame for a possible follow up wave if the front gets hung up around the coast. Second would be around the 8th for a possible storm coming out of the south that could have a primary to the west then coastal take over. Third would be around the 11th with the changing of the pattern as the warmer air starts to come east and attacks the cold. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definite potential 12/8 with this look.   Closed low ejecting out of SW, transient confluence in place for high pressure, +PNA, cold wedge.  Comes down to timing of any phase, confluence is mobile so CAD could erode etc and the details will continue to bounce around.  Nice to see potential

gfs_z500_vort_us_41.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice trends last night. Here are the changes for the euro a week out. A couple of obs: 1) plenty of changes in wave spacing/location in E NA and WC ridging so still quite uncertain, 2) Big 50/50 popped on last nights run, 3) Much stronger with wave for Dec 8 system nearing Ca.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh168_trend.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

00z 10-day GEFS, strong signal for a GOM system. Likely to be a snowstorm for somebody in the east. 

f240.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Would say on the eps, the dec 8-10th period has a better signal. The dec 5 threat did bump up a little last night but not as strong as the dec 8-10th period. 

5/6theps_slp_lows_ma_30.png.b3fbb0bd4e10af48005abb8f91f3b323.png

8/9

eps_slp_lows_ma_46.png.025aec57314b28d6492add4f5e10fd95.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You guys will prob laugh at this, but the dec 8-10th period reminds me of feb 5 2010 with the way the GFS has energy coming out of the Southwest into a wall of HP & CAD. Driving or I’d post the image similarities i see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Heisenberg said:

You guys will prob laugh at this, but the dec 8-10th period reminds me of feb 5 2010 with the way the GFS has energy coming out of the Southwest into a wall of HP & CAD. Driving or I’d post the image similarities i see.

it def has the best shot of the two right now. The airmass is much better in front of it compared to the dec 5th one which is more timing and proximity of the front

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very potent southern stream system on D8 gfs. Curious to see how this ends up

gfs_z500_vort_us_34.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, way out there, but that Dec 8-10 system has all the ingredients. Great jet configuration, you got the the 300mb jet screaming out of the southwest with one racing across the NE which locks in the cold HP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Yeah, way out there, but that Dec 8-10 system has all the ingredients. Great jet configuration, you got the the 300mb jet screaming out of the southwest with one racing across the NE which locks in the cold HP

Yes way out there, but pretty steady in gfs and other guidance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

euro day 10, looks like an interior snowstorm, faster than gfs,

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×