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CAT IV Michael Heading For Florida & Beyond (More Rain For Us?)

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Michael ate its Wheaties overnight on modeling, Euro shaves nearly 50mb off its previous run, there goes the milk and bread at Wal-Mart

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TD-14 overnight. Likely to strengthen into a hurricane and could bring unneeded rain to our area next week.

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3 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Michael ate its Wheaties overnight on modeling, Euro shaves nearly 50mb off its previous run, there goes the milk and bread at Wal-Mart

Screenshot_20181007-041201.jpg

No gain in intensity skill forecasting is going to be made with Michael. 

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47 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

TD-14 overnight. Likely to strengthen into a hurricane and could bring unneeded rain to our area next week.

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The Euro track in particular would really add salt to the wounds to the Carolinas also.

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Euro only model that predicts a harder right turn once Michael makes landfall.   WPC QPF thoughts have not changed much from yesterday.

 

 

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Gfs vs euro as far as remnants go. As Tony said, euro makes the harder right and keeps us dry, whereas the gfs brings it overhead. 

 

Good news is that whatever happens, even if it does pass overhead, it’s moving quickly. That should limit flooding potential. 

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Also, while SST are high down in the GOM, OHC dodsnt guarantee rapid strengthening. 

 

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20 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Gfs vs euro as far as remnants go. As Tony said, euro makes the harder right and keeps us dry, whereas the gfs brings it overhead. 

 

Good news is that whatever happens, even if it does pass overhead, it’s moving quickly. That should limit flooding potential. 

The ensemble means and track densities are closer in the GEFS & EPS.  It looks like the OP(s) left for the GFS & right for the EC are exaggerating the track differences.  FWIW there has been a left of track bias so far.

 

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It seems that once the Euro gets locked onto a hurricane track, like yesterday, it becomes the model of choice. We don't need another soaking.

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GFS slowed and shifted south while euro sped up, so differences are narrowing.

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Looks like it could be just about a worst-case scenario for Panama City, Florida.

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As Michael approaches the Florida Panhandle, it may get a last minute boost from the GOMEX ssts. Low end Cat4 not out of the question.

 

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recon finding stronger surface winds of 75kts with Michael, so that bump up to 85mph winds with 8pm adv is legit. 

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Battling dry air intrusion, however, outflow improving especially NW quadrant, has sawtooth appearance or whatever that nicely ventilated look is called.  SW quadrant still pancaked a bit by persistent sheer.  Healthy ventilation might allow convection to stabilize around the core more readily today, especially if it shields off and mixes out the dry air, which it's trying hard to do.  Convection isn't fizzling out as quickly as yesterday 

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Signs of symmetry, let's see if it holds and builds around core or continues to pulse

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27 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Signs of symmetry, let's see if it holds and builds around core or continues to pulse

Yup, hopefully a pulse, but starting to get that tire look.

goes16_ir_14L_201810091028.jpg

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48 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Battling dry air intrusion, however, outflow improving especially NW quadrant, has sawtooth appearance or whatever that nicely ventilated look is called.  SW quadrant still pancaked a bit by persistent sheer.  Healthy ventilation might allow convection to stabilize around the core more readily today, especially if it shields off and mixes out the dry air, which it's trying hard to do.  Convection isn't fizzling out as quickly as yesterday 

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Great analysis. He kind of flatlined a bit overnight as far as strengthening. (Good thing vs waking up to a higher end cat 3).  Still, about 36 hours left over the open Gulf. Never a good thing. 

 

Let’s see where he goes from here:

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6z intensity models not too bullish on further strengthening, maybe low end cat 3 as a small probability. But hey, we’ve seen crazier things. 

 

Key is gonna be to see if the eye can warm and clear out. Until then, I’d expect minimal fluctuations in strength. 

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06 gfs ticked north in our area, large rainfall gradient SE of I95.

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Aircraft recon consistent with the improving satellite look.

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Should see bump up in winds at 8am adv. surface winds deopsonde showed 90kts which would make for a 95-100mph storm. Flight level winds at 105mph

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47 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

6z intensity models not too bullish on further strengthening, maybe low end cat 3 as a small probability. But hey, we’ve seen crazier things. 

 

Key is gonna be to see if the eye can warm and clear out. Until then, I’d expect minimal fluctuations in strength. 

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Euro looked like cat 4 almost with its wind field. Looks like pressure drops below 950 on it 

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