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tombo82685

Hurricane Florence a hit or a punt?

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I think this illustrates the Euro being too fast pretty well, it had the largest westward bias of any model. But otoh, as far as latitude went (along the black line would be the perfect lat), it was better than some.  The ukie and cmc and a southward track bias accumulatively.  This also includes every Florence forecast I believe.  The Navy models did very well as did the Canadian ggem.  Brian Lovern once said the ggem is not bad, once the tropical system is for real that is.

bia.png.b91ef1622ed040f623501396ef1325cd.png

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The EPS and the bias adjusted consensus forecasts that weight the EPS heavily performed well, hence the very good nhc forecasts.

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11 hours ago, Chubbs said:

The EPS and the bias adjusted consensus forecasts that weight the EPS heavily performed well, hence the very good nhc forecasts.

NHC did excellent with the track of Florence, far below their average error of 45, 75, 100, 140 & 180 miles for days 1-5.  They will be the first to tell you intensity (the qpf of hurricane forecasting) is more challenging.

I didn't have time to do the 8 am (just about landfall position) verification yesterday, but here it is:

NHC 8 am 9/14 position of Florence

At landfall near Wrightsville Beach:  34.1 / 77.9

24hr forecast...................................   34.2 / 77.8

48hr forecast...................................    33.8 / 77.4

72hr forecast...................................     34.2 / 77.1

96 hr forecast..................................     35.0 / 79.0

120hr forecast.................................     35.0 / 78.5

 

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On 9/13/2018 at 9:48 AM, colonel_kurtz said:

that's right, 3 day total during Floyd was 19.06"

all time daily record is 13.38" on 9/15/1999

all time monthly record is 23.41" from SEPT 1999

Wilmington has a healthy period of record, back to 1871

Event, monthly & annual rainfall records set at Wilmington, NC

Florence rainfall total at Wilmington is over 23" breaking the previous record total from Floyd

The monthly total is over 24" breaking the SEPT 1999 record

The annual total is over 86" breaking the all time record of 83.65" set in 1877, 

just SW of Wilmington Brunswick County has just been crushed, 7:00am CoCoRaHS total of 17.38" on Oak Island this morning

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1 hour ago, colonel_kurtz said:

Event, monthly & annual rainfall records set at Wilmington, NC

Florence rainfall total at Wilmington is over 23" breaking the previous record total from Floyd

The monthly total is over 24" breaking the SEPT 1999 record

The annual total is over 86" breaking the all time record of 83.65" set in 1877, 

just SW of Wilmington Brunswick County has just been crushed, 7:00am CoCoRaHS total of 17.38" on Oak Island this morning

 

NOUS42 KILM 161405
PNSILM
NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059-
170215-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WILMINGTON HAS BROKEN ITS ALL-TIME ANNUAL RAINFALL RECORD
AND IS EXPERIENCING ITS WETTEST WEATHER EVENT IN HISTORY...

As of 9:00 AM this morning, annual rainfall in Wilmington, North
Carolina totals 86.79 inches. This breaks the previous annual record
of 83.65 inches set during 1877.

Hurricane Florence has dropped 23.59 inches in Wilmington so far.
This breaks the record for the wettest single weather event in
the city`s history. The previous record was set during a
significant flood event in late September 2010 at 22.54 inches.
The previous record rainfall due to a named tropical system was
Hurricane Floyd at 19.06 inches in September 1999.

Since there are over three months remaining in the year, it is
possible the annual rainfall total will end up over 100 inches in
Wilmington.
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49 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

 


NOUS42 KILM 161405
PNSILM
NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059-
170215-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WILMINGTON HAS BROKEN ITS ALL-TIME ANNUAL RAINFALL RECORD
AND IS EXPERIENCING ITS WETTEST WEATHER EVENT IN HISTORY...

As of 9:00 AM this morning, annual rainfall in Wilmington, North
Carolina totals 86.79 inches. This breaks the previous annual record
of 83.65 inches set during 1877.

Hurricane Florence has dropped 23.59 inches in Wilmington so far.
This breaks the record for the wettest single weather event in
the city`s history. The previous record was set during a
significant flood event in late September 2010 at 22.54 inches.
The previous record rainfall due to a named tropical system was
Hurricane Floyd at 19.06 inches in September 1999.

Since there are over three months remaining in the year, it is
possible the annual rainfall total will end up over 100 inches in
Wilmington.

Quite a sad commentary/occurrence when one has to come up with new scaling...  (One week total through this morning)

d.JPG.a60afa7b8a53604775bfd465384eb634.JPG

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It looks like rivers are cresting or getting close in the Carolinas.  This was one of the worst crests I could find mousing over the gages.  This is right near Fort Bragg.

r.JPG.c98fccce423625e840e3e420b618abe8.JPG

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I noticed a few of the gauges showed the river not cresting until this weekend...any idea why there is such a large disparity? More feeder streams/rivers flooding that will take some time to get there?

cnws1_hg.png

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Hey guys I have a question that hopefully won’t be considered too ignorant ... At a minimum I need to use some unscientific language to explain my question...

In my years as a severe weather enthusiast and Plains storm chaser I have heard and read severe storm researcher Dr. Chuck Doswell say that a thunderstorm is a “process,” not some discrete object that moves around with defined edges etc. I am sure the same could be said about a tropical cyclone.

So when the remnants of a hurricane like Florence come into our area, clearly the form she takes is the result of a “process” that includes interaction with mid/upper level features, surface baroclinicity, etc.

But yesterday, and in similar situations when we get the remnants of tropical cyclones up this way, the air mass is clearly tropical in nature. So what is the right way to think about this - is the “process” that was Florence still continually tapping into tropical moisture and pulling it up this way? Or is she still “raining herself out”, i.e. still dumping the “original” moisture that was in the system? Are there literally some “original” parcels of tropical, high dewpoint / high PW air still “inside” the system and traveling with it from its days over the lower latitude ocean? Or has that air long been replaced/recycled by continuing processes since Florence’s landfall?

I hope this question makes some tiny bit of sense

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1 hour ago, JimCaruso said:

Hey guys I have a question that hopefully won’t be considered too ignorant ... emoji57.png At a minimum I need to use some unscientific language to explain my question...

In my years as a severe weather enthusiast and Plains storm chaser I have heard and read severe storm researcher Dr. Chuck Doswell say that a thunderstorm is a “process,” not some discrete object that moves around with defined edges etc. I am sure the same could be said about a tropical cyclone.

So when the remnants of a hurricane like Florence come into our area, clearly the form she takes is the result of a “process” that includes interaction with mid/upper level features, surface baroclinicity, etc.

But yesterday, and in similar situations when we get the remnants of tropical cyclones up this way, the air mass is clearly tropical in nature. So what is the right way to think about this - is the “process” that was Florence still continually tapping into tropical moisture and pulling it up this way? Or is she still “raining herself out”, i.e. still dumping the “original” moisture that was in the system? Are there literally some “original” parcels of tropical, high dewpoint / high PW air still “inside” the system and traveling with it from its days over the lower latitude ocean? Or has that air long been replaced/recycled by continuing processes since Florence’s landfall?

I hope this question makes some tiny bit of sense emoji848.pngemoji52.png

I would say it is predominately the former thought even though Florence was weaker than she once was up our way.  Here is a 7 day loop from WPC (it is probably going to be time sensitive and wont make much sense a week from now looking at this loop.  The process of extratropical transition was also going on at our latitude.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/namusloop_wbg_7day.html

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