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tombo82685

Hurricane Florence a hit or a punt?

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all the models outside the gfs and Icon bring this into SC or GA. Gfs has been trending east with outer banks hit on 0z and 6z was a close brush, then punt. Can see the gfs over the last couple of runs has weakened the ridge to the north of Florence allowing for a subtle weakness for earlier recurve. 

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Here's the 0z eps. 2 distinct camps. One like the gfs with a brush then recurve or the other which goes into SC/GA

 

eps_florence.thumb.png.95125455fce012b125f5a47e82898cdf.png

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29 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Here's the 0z eps. 2 distinct camps. One like the gfs with a brush then recurve or the other which goes into SC/GA

 

eps_florence.thumb.png.95125455fce012b125f5a47e82898cdf.png

The trend is not the conus's friend:

cones168_ecmf_storm_atl_2018090800.png.7b1bbb290816a5013113a08e6896f770.png

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I see several of the models having it do a tight loop off shore. Not sure why that is, but could be a trend that it will slow down as it get closer, IF it goes up the coast, and IF it makes landfall.

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2 minutes ago, cbelke said:

I see several of the models having it do a tight loop off shore. Not sure why that is, but could be a trend that it will slow down as it get closer, IF it goes up the coast, and IF it makes landfall.

The loop is cause it gets caught slightly in a weakness to yank it east a bit. but then ridge builds in again blocking it,  causing it to head back west

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2 minutes ago, cbelke said:

I see several of the models having it do a tight loop off shore. Not sure why that is, but could be a trend that it will slow down as it get closer, IF it goes up the coast, and IF it makes landfall.

The GFS and Icon (I am not sure about it with tropical systems.  Then again one can say that about nearly every model) are the only OP models with some sort of encouragement at the moment.

index.gif.9cf59d48db6bb68b315e001ae902f222.gif

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I can't match time to time, but other than one Euro run, the emergence and progression of the 594dm WAR has blocked Florence's recurve. First image is Florence east of Newfoundland.  The GFS's positioning of the WAR is not that different, but allows for a scrape with the current run.

index.gif.a489747e4e24c3b3f7555a498a34201c.gif

index.gifx.gif

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Just looking at track densities, the GEFS and EPS are almost mirror images of each other with a scraping recurve vs let's reconfigure the Carolina coastline.  

 

 

ecmf_storm_atl_2018090800.png

gefs_storm_atl_2018090800.png

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Gfs continues close brush near hse then loops and out. Ggem came north to Myrtle beach right in line with 0z euro 

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ukmet is north from its 0z run. It's just off shore of myrtle beach at hr 144. So ggem and ukmet have come in slower and a bit further north. Slower speed allows for further north scenario or punt as it give time for high to move further east

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If we get any wind from this it will be tree trouble with the ground as wet as it is now and especially after the Sunday/ Monday rains.

 

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51 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

ukmet is north from its 0z run. It's just off shore of myrtle beach at hr 144. So ggem and ukmet have come in slower and a bit further north. Slower speed allows for further north scenario or punt as it give time for high to move further east

Maybe this is really more for us centric than the Carolinas, but it is easier for a tropical system to get trapped and lurched westward if there is some central conus/great lakes trof working in concert with any WAR.  I guess if the WAR is strong enough (Isabel example) and retrograding , it can do it on its own. But any tropical system once we are getting into the mid lats is fighting the coriolis force/any westerlies more and more to keep on going on any west of north movement.  I don't know the Florence answer, but just a point to ponder.  Here are some 500mb images from past tropical systems that have gone north or northwest:

Hazel:

5b940e5f60986_Hazel4.jpg.070555bc7e978731b9d367644a524365.jpg

Gloria:

092621.png.gif.60f8909412887d0ff219e0562c323a57.gif092712.png.gif.10848cec640f22888ae86e8d649d20ba.gif

Isabel:

091809.png.gif.29c7961a9279f84d4e80a09d9ef3e815.gif

Sandy:

102900.png.gif.1619cd6ca3565166a8827a6aeb28a7ed.gif

 

500mb Prediction for Florence:

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_7.png.0e62eda9b3bf859bb380722dd6faf448.png

 

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8 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

all the models outside the gfs and Icon bring this into SC or GA. Gfs has been trending east with outer banks hit on 0z and 6z was a close brush, then punt. Can see the gfs over the last couple of runs has weakened the ridge to the north of Florence allowing for a subtle weakness for earlier recurve. 

Agree GFS ensemble members are trending east. . Euro continues to show Myrtle Beach hit, but very small and possibly less than a major.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

image.png.22ecdc06e6f7fac7c0723ccd469aadaf.pngf156.gif

image.png

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12z OP model runs collectively had less of a WAR which has trended landfall farther north or not at all. The meandering stall would bring its own issues.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Maybe this is really more for us centric than the Carolinas, but it is easier for a tropical system to get trapped and lurched westward if there is some central conus/great lakes trof working in concert with any WAR.  I guess if the WAR is strong enough (Isabel example) and retrograding , it can do it on its own. But any tropical system once we are getting into the mid lats is fighting the coriolis force/any westerlies more and more to keep on going on any west of north movement.  I don't know the Florence answer, but just a point to ponder.  Here are some 500mb images from past tropical systems that have gone north or northwest:

Hazel:

5b940e5f60986_Hazel4.jpg.070555bc7e978731b9d367644a524365.jpg

Gloria:

 

Isabel:

 

Sandy:

 

 

500mb Prediction for Florence:

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_7.png.0e62eda9b3bf859bb380722dd6faf448.png

 

If you look at Hazels h5 chart you can clearly see track would be just east of apps. High just offshore and trough to the west creates lane. Gfs has that high further east allowing for more offshore as it goes around it. Euro here trended towards that to a degree. It’s High location was further offshore this run allowing for further north and east approach as it works around it. The trough out west doesn’t seem like much of a player. It seems like positioning of that ridge just offshore combined with Florence speed and intensity are what determines track 

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Big shift north on eps from 0z run. Many concentrating on NC hit or track like gfs. Some are further south as well. For today atleast, trend has been north. 

0z

eps_slp_lows_ma_27.png

12zeps_slp_lows_ma_25.png

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eps consensus is myrtle beach to hse for most likely landfall this run

DmmJT24VsAA_fcy.jpg

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Since Gigi has been missing out on rain, lets all pull for this eps member so his drought can be put to an end

eps_qpf_slp_28_east2_27.png

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19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Since Gigi has been missing out on rain, lets all pull for this eps member so his drought can be put to an end

 

You don't want to play golf next weekend do you? ;)

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2 minutes ago, cbelke said:

You don't want to play golf next weekend do you? ;)

gigi needing rain > golf

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1 hour ago, cbelke said:

You don't want to play golf next weekend do you? ;)

Well that map is thru  Friday evening. Should be ending soon. So Saturday would be gondola(s) only.

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Well that map is thru  Friday evening. Should be ending soon. So Saturday would be gondola(s) only.

it actually swings back into the coast and rains right through till sunday... 10"+ at vay on that member

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