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Rainshadow

Meteorological Autumn Pattern Discussion, Desperately Seeking September

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Last time PHL had a September with an average temperature less than 70F was 2013..... 

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Are you implying that's a bit of a warm look? :hotsun:

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21 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Are you implying that's a bit of a warm look? :hotsun:

I see snow

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

Are you implying that's a bit of a warm look? :hotsun:

Just implying that a la la land time on a GFS run will do what a la la land GFS run does.  Tom is waiting for the GFS to switch to non stop cold in its la la land times, then we know the seasons have kicked over.

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I see snow

In that case I am canceling winter. Looks hot and dry 

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Looks like we end August and begin september in a torchy look. The high dews just don’t want to leave on the op GFS. 

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7 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

Looks like we end August and begin september in a torchy look. The high dews just don’t want to leave on the op GFS. 

The way la la land looks right now, you might have to wake me up when September ends.

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Thats an ugly looks for next week into Labor Day. Hope that changes

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Thats an ugly looks for next week into Labor Day. Hope that changes

Yup this is just the way I like September starting.  Can't wait to experience those Virginia 100s.  As I know you do, I feel the same way about hot weather in September as cold weather in March.

 

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Well the 8/21/00z GEFS starts September with a long wave trof right along the west coast and an elliptical heat ridge over KY & VA.   Til the end of its run (5th) both features retrograde with the heat ridge moving to the southern plains.  This would place us in northwest flow even though our heights are outlooked above normal ufn.  GEPS is actually worse with a flatter/slower retrogression.  

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Curious as to what the general weather pattern looks like the week after Labor Day (9/3-9/7) along the mid-Atlantic.  We will be in the Outer Banks that week, and I guess I can live with hot since we are at the beach but would really prefer it to at least cool off at night.

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12 hours ago, mshaffer526 said:

Curious as to what the general weather pattern looks like the week after Labor Day (9/3-9/7) along the mid-Atlantic.  We will be in the Outer Banks that week, and I guess I can live with hot since we are at the beach but would really prefer it to at least cool off at night.

Might depend on how the ridging over the CONUS behaves, and essentially, the pacific. . If it retrogrades enough, we can slide a trough in. 

 

If it anchors in over central CONUS, it’ll advect EML’s and warmer air over us... 

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20 hours ago, mshaffer526 said:

Curious as to what the general weather pattern looks like the week after Labor Day (9/3-9/7) along the mid-Atlantic.  We will be in the Outer Banks that week, and I guess I can live with hot since we are at the beach but would really prefer it to at least cool off at night.

I don't know.  The trend was better overnight for places farther north, but there is much more work ahead to do:

index.gif.2007beb6da78e15ae8bba3b046e3b410.gif

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As autumn arrives, the trend of some (who knows maybe complete) break in the heat is there on the GEFS in spite of the OP:

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On 8/18/2018 at 6:42 AM, Rainshadow said:

Last time PHL had a September with an average temperature less than 70F was 2013..... 

j.JPG.79245d0f9c18ac40b5ddd6093949686a.JPG

Okay if at first you don't succeed, try, try again later in fall.  Good luck with that. :facepalm:

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On 8/21/2018 at 7:26 AM, Rainshadow said:

Well the 8/21/00z GEFS starts September with a long wave trof right along the west coast and an elliptical heat ridge over KY & VA.   Til the end of its run (5th) both features retrograde with the heat ridge moving to the southern plains.  This would place us in northwest flow even though our heights are outlooked above normal ufn.  GEPS is actually worse with a flatter/slower retrogression.  

8/25/00z GEFS:

Met Autumn begins with a cucumber shaped H5 ridge from Arkansas southwest to Baja with above normal heights but nw flow over us and a northern Rockies Ridge.  The ridge moves northeast and strengthens peaking on Labor Day.  Pattern retrogression and repositioning of the long wave trof starts at beginning of month and the middle of Labor Day week same goes for the H5 ridge (Long wave trof now along the Pacific coast). Near normal heights breifly return to PHI CWA on Friday Sept 7th as we are in nw flow aloft.  Run ends with a Pacific Coast Trof, central conus ridge, nw flow over us.  Greatest above normal heights are in Canada, so there should be highs passing north of us.  Once we get into September the onshore flow around these highs may keep as cooler than the h5 flow would indicate, but not sure if we are there yet with that.

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to piggy back off Tony's long range Gefs update. Just looked at the eps long range for the first time in a while. They have the slight heat rebound after Labor day, but it doesn't seem as intense as gfs/gefs combo. After that though meean ridge splits and slides west into Rockies which allows a nice cool shot to come down in time for late next week into the following weekend. After that, flow gets zonal, so while not cool, it won't be a torch. Probably will average slightly.above normal with westerly flow as it looks now 

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I am going to try to narrow the gap between posts going deeper into autumn

 

8/25/00z GEFS:

Met Autumn begins with a cucumber shaped H5 ridge from Arkansas southwest to Baja with above normal heights but nw flow over us and a northern Rockies Ridge.  The ridge moves northeast and strengthens peaking on Labor Day.  Pattern retrogression and repositioning of the long wave trof starts at beginning of month and the middle of Labor Day week same goes for the H5 ridge (Long wave trof now along the Pacific coast). Near normal heights breifly return to PHI CWA on Friday Sept 7th as we are in nw flow aloft.  Run ends with a Pacific Coast Trof, central conus ridge, nw flow over us.  Greatest above normal heights are in Canada, so there should be highs passing north of us.  Once we get into September the onshore flow around these highs may keep as cooler than the h5 flow would indicate, but not sure if we are there yet with that.

 

8/28/00z GEFS:

Met Autumn begins with split ridges one off the NC coast, the other along the conus sw border with Mexico.  Dollar cost averaging effects or not, the ridges merge into one elongated one and drifts northward closer to us.  Maximum northeast extension of ridge is on Wednesday the 5th with 591dm (GEPS 588) getting to the NJ/NY line.  EPS Max looks like it occurs on Labor Day, 591dm gets beyond Mitch.  West Coast trof, but retrogression of ridge to the SW brings near normal 500mb heights back to us on Saturday the 8th with both the GEFS and EPS.  Pretty much the story til the end of its run on September 12th. We are in northwest (sometimes troffy) flow with the ridge over the southern Rockies.  GEPS even ends with below normal heights centered in Connecticut.  So once we get past the 5th or so, the pattern looks more Septemberish and not the third world toilet (Jewel Of The Nile quote) 90s reality/potential.

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06z OP GFS aside (so nice of the GEFs to dry hump it too), this is an encouraging trend:

 

 

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There is no end in sight to this heat/humidity ok the 6z GEFS outside a random day or 2.

 

At this rate, setemember will end up at +10 lol

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