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chescopawxman

Winter 2018/2019 Professional Met Forecasts

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I will post Professional Meteorologists Winter Forecasts here for those interested.

To start off Weatherbell sent client forecasts last week and hit us professional subscribers with their forecast (not a probability forecast) today.  They see an early start and a cold and stormy winter for our local area. Temperature forecasts for the area are 3 degrees below normal temperatures with more than 133% of normal seasonal snow.

Paul

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On 8/8/2018 at 2:08 PM, chescopawxman said:

I will post Professional Meteorologists Winter Forecasts here for those interested.

To start off Weatherbell sent client forecasts last week and hit us professional subscribers with their forecast (not a probability forecast) today.  They see an early start and a cold and stormy winter for our local area. Temperature forecasts for the area are 3 degrees below normal temperatures with more than 133% of normal seasonal snow.

Paul

What a shocker, saw they have the deep south -5 for temps and even higher for above normal snow. Bold. 

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12 hours ago, Mitchg said:

What a shocker, saw they have the deep south -5 for temps and even higher for above normal snow. Bold. 

the location is pretty much textbook nino. Looks like they just regurgitated it

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On 9/5/2018 at 6:15 PM, tombo82685 said:

the location is pretty much textbook nino. Looks like they just regurgitated it

When was the last time the I95 corridor was not outlooked colder than normal for a winter?  I remember 2007-8, maybe Paul recalls some that were sooner.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

When was the last time the I95 corridor was not outlooked colder than normal for a winter?  I remember 2007-8, maybe Paul recalls some that were sooner.

Last yr I believe they weren’t. Not sure though

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23 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Last yr I believe they weren’t. Not sure though

Nope. Try another season (and not 2016-17 either).

"In terms of the past five winters for the nation as a whole, this should be a more widespread winter. I think there will be periods of shifting, as to where the worst of winter will be. The forecast balances out two dangers: (1) that the 1995-96 example tries to run the table and (2) if the MJO is amped-up and goes into the cold phases, it could get really ugly given there will be an opportunity to put snow down.

The other winters are when major warmups beat back the overall cold. My strategy from the get-go is to let you know this is not some ho-hum winter. A lot of forecasts issued after our first one back in summer seem to echo what we have been saying. That being said, I had my suspicions on the modeling having to shift eastward for the early winter, so I am jumping on that. I fear the threat of a mid-winter warm up. The analogs I showed you had the warm October, the cold trying to get into the East early, but also have a pull back. So the result is more cold farther to the east because of the early cold and then try to home in as we see some of the other things I just talked about. This winter has a lot of potential and certainly the way we get to the end is likely to be a heck of ride."

DJF18TDeptUS.png.bf6ac1c918df30e0e3e6943ae6228fec.png

2016-17:

The Verdict

A colder and snowier winter is on the way for the Great Lakes, Northeast, much of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, with warmth centered in the West. The warmth could also extend across the South. There is a danger of major cold from Thanksgiving to New Year's. As far as later in the winter, we will evaluate that as we get closer. Given the worry about December, it has been made the coldest month, with some backing off in January. February is bound by a greater uncertainty with how far out it is.

DJF17TDeptUS.png.9645352932739a45b62dc1c7f3855ebc.png

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11 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Nope. Try another season (and not 2016-17 either).

"In terms of the past five winters for the nation as a whole, this should be a more widespread winter. I think there will be periods of shifting, as to where the worst of winter will be. The forecast balances out two dangers: (1) that the 1995-96 example tries to run the table and (2) if the MJO is amped-up and goes into the cold phases, it could get really ugly given there will be an opportunity to put snow down.

The other winters are when major warmups beat back the overall cold. My strategy from the get-go is to let you know this is not some ho-hum winter. A lot of forecasts issued after our first one back in summer seem to echo what we have been saying. That being said, I had my suspicions on the modeling having to shift eastward for the early winter, so I am jumping on that. I fear the threat of a mid-winter warm up. The analogs I showed you had the warm October, the cold trying to get into the East early, but also have a pull back. So the result is more cold farther to the east because of the early cold and then try to home in as we see some of the other things I just talked about. This winter has a lot of potential and certainly the way we get to the end is likely to be a heck of ride."

DJF18TDeptUS.png.bf6ac1c918df30e0e3e6943ae6228fec.png

2016-17:

The Verdict

A colder and snowier winter is on the way for the Great Lakes, Northeast, much of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, with warmth centered in the West. The warmth could also extend across the South. There is a danger of major cold from Thanksgiving to New Year's. As far as later in the winter, we will evaluate that as we get closer. Given the worry about December, it has been made the coldest month, with some backing off in January. February is bound by a greater uncertainty with how far out it is.

DJF17TDeptUS.png.9645352932739a45b62dc1c7f3855ebc.png

This was last yrs forecast. I guess you file that under normal bias slightly colder 

D2581AF5-0FAC-4D40-B96E-9343C4FA947D.png

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11 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

This was last yrs forecast. I guess you file that under normal bias slightly colder 

D2581AF5-0FAC-4D40-B96E-9343C4FA947D.png

Oh ok.  I was going more by what Paul posted and as someone said no matter where it starts, he always trends colder.  This was the early December update:

The Verdict

The forecast is colder. The danger I think remains it is not cold enough and that like 2010-11, warmth never really takes hold. My strategy is to make the overall emphasis on the front cold and then let you know there is a high stakes mid to late winter period.

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Latest Weatherbell update this week for winter forecast stays the course with below normal temps and above average snowfall. Analog years used are the following with East Nantmeal snow totals -analog average projection is 58.2" of snow

2002-3 - 62.6"

2006-7 - 25.3"

2009-10 - 86.6"

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From Paul Dorian with Perspecta, Inc.

"It looks like a cold and snowy winter for much of the eastern half of the nation" See their outlook and video on the attached.

https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2018/10/11/2018-2019-winter-outlooklooks-like-a-cold-and-snowy-winter 

Meteorologist Paul Dorian with Perspecta, Inc.

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