Jump to content

Sign in to follow this  
Chubbs

Winter Outlook 2018-19 Discussion. October/November Temp Combo Ruling The Local Roost, Eurasia Snow Coverage Please Step Aside

Recommended Posts

On 10/17/2018 at 5:42 PM, Mitchg said:

Do  not have any real gripes yet about how things look heading into winter. We have a winter outlook for partner groups etc. It shows a so so december but goes cold and snowy for most of the winter. Big time blocking. East coast storm track. 

Happily, that sounds more optimistic than this.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The NOAA outlook uses primarily US based models which are really warm now. All the other seasonal models are quite a bit colder with a nice Jan/Feb. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, NEchestercountydude said:

I didn't think that NOAA's forecast was that bad. they're usually pretty conservative, and rightly so.

it's just a regurgitation of typical weak to mod el nino temps

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, snowlurker said:

So....when are Tony and Tom going to go golfing to make all snow weenies' dreams come true for 2018-2019?

November 8th at the earliest.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

I don't know.  Based on these maps from 10/18, we're way above normal with snow cover in Canada and Siberia ain't that far from normal.  And with 13 days left in the month could easily end up AN. That's if you even think it matters.

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2018&ui_day=291&ui_set=2

 

For PHL it has merit (I don't know if it is statistically significant) for snowfall, but none for temperature.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Speaking of IRI,  the CPC 3.4 Nino averaged +0.1C for JAS.  Weekly CPC site is not climatologically adjusted, gave me +0.3C.  

The latest consensus outlook for the winter season warmed about 0.2C from last month and is now in the low end of a moderate el nino.

Anyway using the same lead time as the upcoming winter there were three dynamical models which pegged the JAS period, one of them the CFS2.

Assuming past performance is an indication of future trends (ha), two of them have a low end moderate nino for this winter and the third has an enso neutral positive. :unsure:

Same lead time as winter outlook:

Capture.JPGxxx.JPG.26ed3d2c94f81aefc469403b65a558ea.JPG

Current outlook:

Capture.JPGx.JPG.ab1c6d593c732a90fad0f67dbcc2ff02.JPG

I'll take the average of those three and go with a weak nino.

Speaking of the CFS2 it does get swayed with what the MJO has done for me lately.  Now that it is on the other side of the globe, its winter outlook for nino is cooler.

nino34Sea.gif.f6d701d77cf36cf1c5acee825412fdee.gif

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

For PHL it has merit (I don't know if it is statistically significant) for snowfall, but none for temperature.

I recall Cohen saying that it was the "rate of increase" of snow cover over the month that was important.  Of course, I can't remember if that was just him trying to cover his arse in a prior year when raw snow cover failed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

I recall Cohen saying that it was the "rate of increase" of snow cover over the month that was important.  Of course, I can't remember if that was just him trying to cover his arse in a prior year when raw snow cover failed.

I have heard rate also.  Regardless I don't recall the last time he did not go colder/snowier than average in the Northeast.  He crashed/burned ignoring the strong nino in 2015-6.

I know you have been in that snow hole but using the Rutgers data the last 6 Octobers have all averaged above normal in Eurasia and four of those winters in PHL have been warmer and snowier than normal. 

Banter: I know the Beltway gets all the press, but for me I95 southbound in Virginia is worse than the Beltway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I have heard rate also.  Regardless I don't recall the last time he did not go colder/snowier than average in the Northeast.  He crashed/burned ignoring the strong nino in 2015-6.

I know you have been in that snow hole but using the Rutgers data the last 6 Octobers have all averaged above normal in Eurasia and four of those winters in PHL have been warmer and snowier than normal. 

Banter: I know the Beltway gets all the press, but for me I95 southbound in Virginia is worse than the Beltway.

Here is the preliminary Cohen outlook from his most recent blog, subject to change as Siberia snow and other indicators evolve. Like you think it would be interesting if Siberia snow ends up giving  a warm forecast.

tfcstdjf19_model.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Here is the preliminary Cohen outlook from his most recent blog, subject to change as Siberia snow and other indicators evolve. Like you think it would be interesting if Siberia snow ends up giving  a warm forecast.

tfcstdjf19_model.png

First time I recall an above normal outlook?

After we stop laughing that this is a GFS snow forecast and I can't evaluate rate of increase, but it does look like there is a chance that this month averages below normal in Eurasia and in particular Siberia.  According to the Canadian anomaly map, where we are at the end of the month with this GFS projection is close to where we should be today:

 

 

Capture.JPGx.JPG

plot_anom_sdep.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That’s it, winter is over. What’s next year look like 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

That’s it, winter is over. What’s next year look like 

I think Feb hacked your account.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I think Feb hacked your account.

Just tell Feb when, he's ready to call this winter DOA

6a00d83451bbfa69e2010536e7358f970c.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×