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Rainshadow

Tropical Storm/Hurricane? Chris

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Beside Beryl, most of the models have a low developing and getting stuck for awhile underneath the CONUS ridge.  

 

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I love tropical systems but this time I’m a little concerned because I am leaving on a cruise from NYC to the Caribbean on Wednesday July 11. GFS shows a tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane right in our path. Euro shows it OTS and weaker but could still make for some rough seas.

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13 minutes ago, JimCaruso said:

I love tropical systems but this time I’m a little concerned because I am leaving on a cruise from NYC to the Caribbean on Wednesday July 11. GFS shows a tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane right in our path. Euro shows it OTS and weaker but could still make for some rough seas.

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GFS overforecasts intensity in order to improve on track.  It does not take into account the churning and upwelling that goes along with tropical systems so it leaves the bath water undisturbed along it.

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A few ensembles do have an east coast hit on both the GEFS and EPS with the most likely spot being Cape Cod. A Predecessor rainfall event would be a bigger concern with the front coming down mid-week. Odds for either I would say fairly low being still 5 days away. 

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What is happening on these 12z Euro forecasts? Is the tropical low really moving all the way from SE of Hatteras on 12z on the 10th to off the coast of Maine on 12z on the 11th? Or is that a different system? And then what is that low off Hatteras on the 13th, is that the one from the 10th or a new one?


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15 hours ago, JimCaruso said:


What is happening on these 12z Euro forecasts? Is the tropical low really moving all the way from SE of Hatteras on 12z on the 10th to off the coast of Maine on 12z on the 11th? Or is that a different system? And then what is that low off Hatteras on the 13th, is that the one from the 10th or a new one?


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Looks like a second system. "Three" now shoots off to the northeast on all the models. So much for sacrificing intensity for track with the GFS if the new "Three" track holds.   Tried to see if this was actually a remnant of Beryl that refires on the GFS.  It is tough to say.  Then the 06z has nothing beyond "Three".

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Euro position doesn’t look great for my cruise departing from Manhattan late afternoon on the 11th. NHC discussion notes that forecast on all models has shifted south and west but for continuity NHC track remains on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope and faster.

 

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Chris projection remains seaward and we should get some "cooling" in its wake at the end of the week.

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46 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Chris projection remains seaward and we should get some "cooling" in its wake at the end of the week.

 

You're welcome! :)  

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

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That has litterally been the weather the last 7 days here and maybe the next 7. I can only spend so much time on projects at work lol. 

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7 hours ago, Mitchg said:

That has litterally been the weather the last 7 days here and maybe the next 7. I can only spend so much time on projects at work lol. 

I’d say the entire summer so far has been this

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10 hours ago, Mitchg said:

That has litterally been the weather the last 7 days here and maybe the next 7. I can only spend so much time on projects at work lol. 

I heard Mount Holly is going to be down 5 people again come September 1st, you could volunteer to go back.;):o:blink:;)

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4 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

I heard Mount Holly is going to be down 5 people again come September 1st, you could volunteer to go back.;):o:blink:;)

Yes, the 2 year vacant MIC, 2 lead forecasters, OPL and a entry level with Lance leaving for Tallahassee. However, the MIC along with the entry level and a lead forecaster have been advertised. Maybe Joe can get two picks off the lead vacancy. OPL will never be filled. 

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5 hours ago, Mitchg said:

Yes, the 2 year vacant MIC, 2 lead forecasters, OPL and a entry level with Lance leaving for Tallahassee. However, the MIC along with the entry level and a lead forecaster have been advertised. Maybe Joe can get two picks off the lead vacancy. OPL will never be filled. 

Your slot was filled? Pretty soon I will know no one there except for Joe because they will keep rebidding the  MIC position.

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On 7/10/2018 at 6:45 PM, Rainshadow said:

Your slot was filled? Pretty soon I will know no one there except for Joe because they will keep rebidding the  MIC position.

Yup, Mine along with Kristin. MIC panel once again was very thin from what I heard, so a third time advertising it wouldn't be a shocker. 

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