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Rainshadow

Genuine Heat Wave Starting Friday June 29th UFN Coming To A Theatre Near You

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11 hours ago, Mitchg said:

The Gigi 10am plus 10 rule has it just short of that. Though today was basically a plus two of yesturday here given a 1C increase at 925. Saw 95 for PHI yesturday. 

Yesterday's cirrus might have cost a degree or so.  Today I was inside with no red onions so have not followed as closely.  Problem is GFS  overzealousness in the let's recognize urban areas contaminates the thermal profile from the ground up, so a slow but steady decrease in 925s every day. Have resorted to using 15z, possibly 18z fcst 925/850mb before the contamination spreads upward. 

Anyway I started the thread on June 25th and expected the PHL top to be 98F.  Today's high was 97F and looks like it should be the top, so to be 1F off a week out, I'll take it; if only I was good with stocks.

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On 6/25/2018 at 6:45 AM, Rainshadow said:

Well there goes July in a hurry.  The GFS has wanted to end life as we know it on the I95 corridor for a while, but all of the other models have the 90s predicted and a 594+ heat ridge passing over us.  There were some modeling solutions about us getting backdoored on Monday July 2nd, but that is looking pretty tenuous at best.  I really don't see a clear break in it, other than the core of the heat ridge eventually moves offshore in the middle of next week and down the road that week a ridge developing in the Rockies brings northwest flow to us. Personally I think mid 90s are a lock and there will be a 98F in there somewhere, but would like to see some other models come closer to 100 before jumping on the Death Star GFS's record breaking wagon.

This is really not looking good at all for people who don't have a/c or don't have the financial means they believe to run their a/c.  Not great at all for people working/doing strenuous exercise outdoors as heat related illnesses don't have an age minimum.

Since this question is going to come up as long as the GFS keeps doing what it is doing and/or other models join. :( 100F climo:

PHL has reached 100 degrees 63 times since 1874. 

Last 100 degree day at PHL 7/18/2012

Last Back To Back 100 degree days at PHL 7/22-7/23/2011

Greatest Consecutive Number of Days 100 Degree Plus Highs at PHL: 3  both in early July of 1993 and 1966. 

Highest 100 degree day this century in PHL  103F on 7/22/2011

All Time Record High Temp at PHL 106F on 8/7/1918

 

The Blue line is the OP GFS, the black line is the ensemble mean.

 

 

If only I could this close to playing an F chord correctly.  :( 

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