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Rainshadow

Genuine Heat Wave Starting Friday June 29th UFN Coming To A Theatre Near You

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Well there goes July in a hurry.  The GFS has wanted to end life as we know it on the I95 corridor for a while, but all of the other models have the 90s predicted and a 594+ heat ridge passing over us.  There were some modeling solutions about us getting backdoored on Monday July 2nd, but that is looking pretty tenuous at best.  I really don't see a clear break in it, other than the core of the heat ridge eventually moves offshore in the middle of next week and down the road that week a ridge developing in the Rockies brings northwest flow to us. Personally I think mid 90s are a lock and there will be a 98F in there somewhere, but would like to see some other models come closer to 100 before jumping on the Death Star GFS's record breaking wagon.

This is really not looking good at all for people who don't have a/c or don't have the financial means they believe to run their a/c.  Not great at all for people working/doing strenuous exercise outdoors as heat related illnesses don't have an age minimum.

Since this question is going to come up as long as the GFS keeps doing what it is doing and/or other models join. :( 100F climo:

PHL has reached 100 degrees 63 times since 1874. 

Last 100 degree day at PHL 7/18/2012

Last Back To Back 100 degree days at PHL 7/22-7/23/2011

Greatest Consecutive Number of Days 100 Degree Plus Highs at PHL: 3  both in early July of 1993 and 1966. 

Highest 100 degree day this century in PHL  103F on 7/22/2011

All Time Record High Temp at PHL 106F on 8/7/1918

 

The Blue line is the OP GFS, the black line is the ensemble mean.

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I approve of the gfs, the others suck

Then you must really approve of the next generation GFS.

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The reason the Euro remains more subdued (this is relative) is because it continues to pass the core of the heat farther to the north.  It also has a retrograding closed low that somewhat backs the flow more off the ocean.  The GFS/GEFS for its part wants nothing of it.  It is all relative as its in the 90s, just not as ugly as the GFS.

 

 

 

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23 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Well there goes July in a hurry.  The GFS has wanted to end life as we know it on the I95 corridor for a while, but all of the other models have the 90s predicted and a 594+ heat ridge passing over us.  There were some modeling solutions about us getting backdoored on Monday July 2nd, but that is looking pretty tenuous at best.  I really don't see a clear break in it, other than the core of the heat ridge eventually moves offshore in the middle of next week and down the road that week a ridge developing in the Rockies brings northwest flow to us. Personally I think mid 90s are a lock and there will be a 98F in there somewhere, but would like to see some other models come closer to 100 before jumping on the Death Star GFS's record breaking wagon.

This is really not looking good at all for people who don't have a/c or don't have the financial means they believe to run their a/c.  Not great at all for people working/doing strenuous exercise outdoors as heat related illnesses don't have an age minimum.

Since this question is going to come up as long as the GFS keeps doing what it is doing and/or other models join. :( 100F climo:

PHL has reached 100 degrees 63 times since 1874. 

Last 100 degree day at PHL 7/18/2012

Last Back To Back 100 degree days at PHL 7/22-7/23/2011

Greatest Consecutive Number of Days 100 Degree Plus Highs at PHL: 3  both in early July of 1993 and 1966. 

Highest 100 degree day this century in PHL  103F on 7/22/2011

All Time Record High Temp at PHL 106F on 8/7/1918

 

The Blue line is the OP GFS, the black line is the ensemble mean.

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I believe it was 93 that had insane heat index levels above 110 with big storms rolling through the last day of the heat wave

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3 hours ago, susqushawn said:

I believe it was 93 that had insane heat index levels above 110 with big storms rolling through the last day of the heat wave

July 1993 did have HI's that peaked around 110 but it was the duration of the intense heat, 8 consecutive days of mid 90's - low 100's that did the damage

July 1995 was only 2 consecutive days of intense heat unfortunately the intensity was historic, 7/15/95 - high 103 with DP's in the low 80's resulted in a heat index in upper 120's

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Latest gfs loses the 594+ dm ridging over the area. Pesky offshore low on the front end and a quicker retrograde means this upcoming heat blast is losin a bit of bite. 

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Op euro is a bit more stubborn with the ridging overhead and not as quick to retrograde it. 

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2 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

Op euro is a bit more stubborn with the ridging overhead and not as quick to retrograde it. 

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Charlie was talking about this yesterday. GFS was unrealistic with its lack of mixing and thus cooked everyone from the ground up. The afternoon 925s were responding as if they were practically on the surface with the way those unmixed surface temps were spiking during the afternoon.  Now a combination of both are bringing the GFS back to the fold.  Highest OP Euro max temp I have seen through all of this for PHL has been 95F.  The Euro isnt shy when it comes to 2m temps either, so basically the models are converging on mid-upper 90s as a max and then some timing differences as to when the "back door high" makes it "not as hot".

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13 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

July 1993 did have HI's that peaked around 110 but it was the duration of the intense heat, 8 consecutive days of mid 90's - low 100's that did the damage

July 1995 was only 2 consecutive days of intense heat unfortunately the intensity was historic, 7/15/95 - high 103 with DP's in the low 80's resulted in a heat index in upper 120's

The July 1993 heat wave paved the way for the excessive heat programs that the city of PHL initiated to never again go thru a summer with all of those heat related deaths. 

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On 6/25/2018 at 6:45 AM, Rainshadow said:

 

 

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OP GFS has come back in line with other models (both ICON & GGEM have a 98 as the tops now and I think the Euro was 93 this morning).   It is not even the hottest model for Sunday, tied for the top.  The EMC site and meteorstar site have similar max temp numbers, I dont know how pivotal and tropical arrive at their higher 2m temps.

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In spite of hearing on the network news that 150 million will be facing heat indices >90  (which is really earth shattering info for the 1st of July), it looks like heat wave cancel in the frozen tundra of NW Chesco.    At least this time around...

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What an ugly euro run, multiple days 94-98 from now to next weekend 

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Ouch. Hopefully the 12z gfs is right and thus ends middle of next week

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

What an ugly euro run, multiple days 94-98 from now to next weekend 

Yea, backing away from the weaker, more marine influence look. Gonna get nasty around here later this week into late next week. Yuck 

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Uglier local trend on the overnight run.  Heat ridge has sagged southwest right over PHL's latitude.  If it stays there, it would open the door to a 100 degree day for other places beside Berkeley Township in Ocean County.  Then because of its location, it doesn't exit stage right but slooooooowly retrogrades and less "cooling" effect from companion retrograding low to the south.

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If one were to add 11C to the 15UTC 925mb temp that is a 98 or 99 on Sunday and 100 or 101 on Monday.  Having the ridge right overhead there is no wind.  Usually our 100 degree days have some sort of west downsloping flow.

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According to the GFS there are no days below 90 degrees through July 14 with days challenging 100. We may have really screwed it up on the last hole the other day.

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15 hours ago, Harbourton said:

According to the GFS there are no days below 90 degrees through July 14 with days challenging 100. We may have really screwed it up on the last hole the other day.

The OP GFS "cooled" a bit from yesterday's forget 100, let's shoot for 105 runs. Adding 11C to the 15z 925s gives three straight days starting Sunday of highs around 97F at PHL fwtw.  Euro/EPS has never been on the 100 train.  I don't think they have had a member that has had Philly reach 100 on any run and do show more of a break than the GFS after the 4th.  Either way it is hot and dangerous for people who don't have air conditioning or will be working outdoors.

 

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