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tombo82685

The 90s are back and better than ever

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Could possibly see a heat wave sunday-tuesday. Think Sunday may fall short but Monday looks like a lock to me. Tuesday could too. EPS mean for both days are 90, and they usually run a couple degrees to cool. Euro last night was 95-100 tuesday. Also looks like high dews to go along with it too being around 70. Not going to feel good at all. 

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Could possibly see a heat wave sunday-tuesday. Think Sunday may fall short but Monday looks like a lock to me. Tuesday could too. EPS mean for both days are 90, and they usually run a couple degrees to cool. Euro last night was 95-100 tuesday. Also looks like high dews to go along with it too being around 70. Not going to feel good at all. 

Euro no stranger to cooking the summer books either.  The GFS though used to be so off the summer thermal wall it made the Euro look like a thermal Einstein.  Does it have ABE reaching 100F each day, or has that bias been corrected?  Yeah Monday looks like a (mid 90s?) lock with potential for Sunday ( a late in the day 90?) and Tuesday (frontal timing).

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41 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Euro no stranger to cooking the summer books either.  The GFS though used to be so off the summer thermal wall it made the Euro look like a thermal Einstein.  Does it have ABE reaching 100F each day, or has that bias been corrected?  Yeah Monday looks like a (mid 90s?) lock with potential for Sunday ( a late in the day 90?) and Tuesday (frontal timing).

it had 97 in philly on Tuesday and 89-90 Monday

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

it had 97 in philly on Tuesday and 89-90 Monday

I don't get that.  Monday is the clear(er) shot at 90+.  Tuesday the frontal boundary is predicted to be too close (even its version) to live high on the 90s.

 

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Monday does seem like the more "promising" day for 90+...I wonder if it will correct itself.  

Honestly, in terms of weather so far this meteorological summer, the days that have actually been nice have been really nice.  

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57 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

Monday does seem like the more "promising" day for 90+...I wonder if it will correct itself.  

Honestly, in terms of weather so far this meteorological summer, the days that have actually been nice have been really nice.  

Only one 90 degree day so far at Philly, can't really complain about that.

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Monday the Ec even shows 92 for an 18Z 2M temp at BGM :smiley_emoticons_hot:

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1 hour ago, Mitchg said:

Monday the Ec even shows 92 for an 18Z 2M temp at BGM :smiley_emoticons_hot:

Monday is gonna suck, hands down. All the High dews to go with it 

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3 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

one day i'll like being at work

 

2018-06-13_21-39-37.jpg.4d8d3694f47786da745f4652b2a06717.jpg

 

Thanks for the map. I'll be at Bob's Lake in Ontario next week looks like it will be around 70 on monday afternoon.

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I'm playing an outdoor gig at Whole Foods of Devon next Thursday for their weekly "Party on the Patio" and I fully expect it to be 100 degrees.

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99 degrees here in Pasadena, CA today - dry heat though.     They said we're having higher humidity due to the remants of the hurricane off coast.    Dewpoints skyrocketed

into the lower 40's - 15% humidity.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

euro later with front on Tuesday, congrats on 90s possibly that day too

Not saying it is so, but Tuesday could be one of those 90 degree days with lowering dew points post cold frontal but not post enough.  Either way not yet sold on Tuesday being the hottest of the three days.

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I think you can lock Monday in as the hottest day, IMO.  Possible mid-90s temps with dews in the low to mid 70s?  Winning...

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gfs going 96 tuesday for philly too now, enjoy. Though, might fall short of Monday, looks like a little more cloud cover

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20 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

gfs going 96 tuesday for philly too now, enjoy. Though, might fall short of Monday, looks like a little more cloud cover

IMO fwiw (not much) PHL gets to 90 on Sunday as dews are still low, looks like the nam brings a sea breeze front thru to "cool" things off in the evening faster than what will not occur on Monday.  Monday is still the hottest candidate to me.  Tuesday I hope it isn't one of those thunderstorms jump over the area as they re develop farther south.  Either way it doesn't look like it would be cloudy enough or "cool off" fast enough to prevent another 90.  There's your three 90s in a row, although my personal definition of a heat wave (there is no formal definition as I know you know) in this new age are three in a row in the > / = mid 90s (93 or higher).

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

IMO fwiw (not much) PHL gets to 90 on Sunday as dews are still low, looks like the nam brings a sea breeze front thru to "cool" things off in the evening faster than what will not occur on Monday.  Monday is still the hottest candidate to me.  Tuesday I hope it isn't one of those thunderstorms jump over the area as they re develop farther south.  Either way it doesn't look like it would be cloudy enough or "cool off" fast enough to prevent another 90.  There's your three 90s in a row, although my personal definition of a heat wave (there is no formal definition as I know you know) in this new age are three in a row in the > / = mid 90s (93 or higher).

This whole counting waves thing that the media feasts on all summer is asinine.    With the 1981-2010 average now in the upper 80's for half the summer, 90 degrees is not all that noteworthy.   Even the 96-97 hype for Monday is over the top.

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7 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

IMO fwiw (not much) PHL gets to 90 on Sunday as dews are still low, looks like the nam brings a sea breeze front thru to "cool" things off in the evening faster than what will not occur on Monday.  Monday is still the hottest candidate to me.  Tuesday I hope it isn't one of those thunderstorms jump over the area as they re develop farther south.  Either way it doesn't look like it would be cloudy enough or "cool off" fast enough to prevent another 90.  There's your three 90s in a row, although my personal definition of a heat wave (there is no formal definition as I know you know) in this new age are three in a row in the > / = mid 90s (93 or higher).

Yea I think they get to 90 tomorrow as well. Not sure on Tuesday now. Tuesday looks like one of those days where best action is south of the city due to timing of front. Oddly enough eps and euro have been trending downward in terms of raw 2m temps. Eps highest 2m mean now for Philly is 88. I’ll take the over but at one point it was 93. The euro had a couple runs of 94-97 for raw 2m temps but now only can muster a 90 Monday. I’d still probably take 94/95 for Monday. One thing that hasn’t changed unfortunately is the crap dews Monday, boooooo

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46 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea I think they get to 90 tomorrow as well. Not sure on Tuesday now. Tuesday looks like one of those days where best action is south of the city due to timing of front. Oddly enough eps and euro have been trending downward in terms of raw 2m temps. Eps highest 2m mean now for Philly is 88. I’ll take the over but at one point it was 93. The euro had a couple runs of 94-97 for raw 2m temps but now only can muster a 90 Monday. I’d still probably take 94/95 for Monday. One thing that hasn’t changed unfortunately is the crap dews Monday, boooooo

Yes, the dew points are ugly.

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On 6/16/2018 at 5:51 PM, tombo82685 said:

Yea I think they get to 90 tomorrow as well. Not sure on Tuesday now. Tuesday looks like one of those days where best action is south of the city due to timing of front. Oddly enough eps and euro have been trending downward in terms of raw 2m temps. Eps highest 2m mean now for Philly is 88. I’ll take the over but at one point it was 93. The euro had a couple runs of 94-97 for raw 2m temps but now only can muster a 90 Monday. I’d still probably take 94/95 for Monday. One thing that hasn’t changed unfortunately is the crap dews Monday, boooooo

The predicted dew points fwiw did come down from where they once were for today.  This is how one gets the convective jump and how it doesnt take long to get dry in summer.

 

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day2otlk_0600.gif

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On 6/16/2018 at 5:51 PM, tombo82685 said:

Yea I think they get to 90 tomorrow as well. Not sure on Tuesday now. Tuesday looks like one of those days where best action is south of the city due to timing of front. Oddly enough eps and euro have been trending downward in terms of raw 2m temps. Eps highest 2m mean now for Philly is 88. I’ll take the over but at one point it was 93. The euro had a couple runs of 94-97 for raw 2m temps but now only can muster a 90 Monday. I’d still probably take 94/95 for Monday. One thing that hasn’t changed unfortunately is the crap dews Monday, boooooo

There seems to be a 72hr to 84hr switch on the Euro for both pcpn and temp where it "gets it".  Beyond that the op can have runs that are as bad if not worse than the GFS.  The 97F and 96F for Tuesday has now been replaced by an 86F.  That looks a bit low, but reality looks like it is going to be closer to the current than those former hot ones.

 

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A pair of 10+ rules would give PHL a high of 91F-94F for today (Monday).  That looks about right, probably would go with 93F myself.  Tom pays me the same no matter how much I am off.:smiley_emoticons_hot:

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