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Rainshadow

6/10-6/11 Heavy Rain Observations

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About every model I have looked at has some sort of convergence producing a heavy line of storms that just sits, then slowly drops south. Most of the models seem to want to put it from the tpk on north. Euro was tpk into northern DE. 

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jeez, radar rainfall estimates are pretty far off in terms of being to low. 

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19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

About every model I have looked at has some sort of convergence producing a heavy line of storms that just sits, then slowly drops south. Most of the models seem to want to put it from the tpk on north. Euro was tpk into northern DE. 

Looks like it wants to set up shop overhead. 

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7 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Looks like it wants to set up shop overhead. 

yup, posted about that on twitter about 20 mins ago. Can see some sort of convergence going on. 

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11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

yup, posted about that on twitter about 20 mins ago. Can see some sort of convergence going on. 

Joy :mellow:

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44 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

yup, posted about that on twitter about 20 mins ago. Can see some sort of convergence going on. 

Looks like fgen forcing.  The models are still not handling convection well farther to the southwest, so the general convergence along this boundary may not be as clean as they think. 

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I like days like this... I can sit on the porch and listen to the rain all afternoon and evening, rather than waiting until 6:30pm when it’s finally cool enough to go outside on a hot summer day. And I love going to sleep / waking up with the rain outside a wide-open window.

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Looks like fgen forcing.  The models are still not handling convection well farther to the southwest, so the general convergence along this boundary may not be as clean as they think. 

If I had to pick which 12z or 18z model run suites is closest, I'd say the 18z rgem.

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0.34" thru 7:30pm

of course today was our Phillies game & right on que rain started in the bottom of the 1st innning

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Looks like fgen forcing.  The models are still not handling convection well farther to the southwest, so the general convergence along this boundary may not be as clean as they think. 

lines up pretty well with 850mb frontogenesis

8fnt_sf.gif

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atleast we know the hrrr has its ducks lined up right with the heaviest total over VAY

hrrr_t_precip_nj_19.png

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7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

lines up pretty well with 850mb frontogenesis

8fnt_sf.gif

Too bad I'm missing it. I know I'm missing the cooler weather up there.

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NIce cool 58.0 in NW Chesco with moderate rain, .64" so far.

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56, with .83 so far, on my way to well over an inch

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1.42” as of 9pm in Sinking Spring, Berks.

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