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If It Is Meteorlogical Summer, The GFS Must Forecast 100 Degree Days & Above 80 Degree Dew Points.

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Verification in parentheses

 

18z on 6/1................ 100F (86F) on 6/14; 104F (80F) on 6/15 & 103F (84F) on 6/16.  86F (57F) Dew Point On 6/15.

12z on 6/16............... 100F (74F) on 6/27 , 99F (81F)  on 6/26 & 100F (88F)  on 6/28. 14 of 16 days 90 or higher, last 12 days 90 or higher. (Actual 5 days).

18z on 6/20................101F (97F) on 7/2 & 99F (98F) on 7/3; last 6 days (7/1-7/6) 95F or higher (Actual 4 days). 

18z on 6/21................ 99F (94F) on 7/5 & 101F (84F) on 7/6;

                                        Last 9 days (Actual 7 days) 90F or higher with 6 consecutive days of 80+ dew points (Actual none).

00z on 6/24................102F (95F) on 7/1 (with 80+ dew point, highest 75F) and 99F (97F) on 7/2

06z on 6/24................102F (95F) on 7/1, 103F (97F) on 7/2 (dew point of 88F, highest 75F) & 103F (98F) 7/3.

12z on 6/24................99F (95F) on 6/30 & 101F  (95F) on 7/1

18z on 6/24................101F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) on 7/2

00z on 6/25................102F (95F) on 7/1,  105F (97F) on 7/2, 102F (98F) on 7/3 & 102F (94F) 7/4.         DCA 108F (95F) on 7/2

06z on 6/25...............100F (95F) on 7/1 & 7/2 (97F)

12z on 6/25................100F (95F) on 7/1

18z on 6/25................100F (95F) on 7/1

00z on 6/28................103F (95F) on 7/1 & 99F (97F) on 7/2 

06z on 6/28................102F (95F) on 7/1 & 105F (97F) on 7/2

12z on 6/28................102F (95F) on 7/1 & 102F (97F) 7/2

18z on 6/28................100F (95F) on 7/1, 101F (97F) on 7/2, 100F (95F) on 7/5, 99F (84F) on 7/6, 99F (79F) on 7/7, 100F (88F) on 7/13

12z on 6/29................100F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) 7/2 

18z on 6/29................99F (95F) on 7/1, 100F (97F) on 7/2, 100F (88F) on 7/12, 99F (88F) on 7/13 & 100F (90F) on 7/14.

00z on 6/30................100F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) 7/2 & 99F (83F) on 7/15

06z on 6/30................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 102F (97F) on 7/2

12z on 6/30................99F (95F) on 7/1, 100F (97F) on 7/2 & 101F (98F) on 7/3

18z on 6/30...............100F (97F) on 7/2

00z on 7/1..................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 101F (97F) on 7/2

06z on 7/1.................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 101F (97F) on 7/2

12z on 7/1.................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) on 7/2

18z on 7/1.................100F (97F) on 7/2 & 99F (95F) on 7/16

00z on 7/2.................99F (97F) on 7/2, 99F (88F) on 7/13, 100F (90F) on 7/14 & 99F (83F) on 7/15

06z on 7/2.................99F (97F) on 7/2, 99F (90F) on 7/14, 100F (83F) on 7/15, 102F (95F) on 7/16

12z on 7/2.................100F (97F) on 7/2

00z on 7/3.................100F (98F) on 7/3.  

06z on 7/3.................101F (98F) on 7/3.  Also 102F (88F) on 7/13 (81 Dew Point), & 100F (90F) on 7/14 (83 Dew Point)

12z on 7/3.................101F (98F) on 7/3, 100F (88F) on 7/13 (80 Dew Point) & 102F (83F) on 7/15

00z on 7/4.................100F (95F) on 7/16 (80 Dew Point)

06z on 7/4.................100F (83F) on 7/15 with a 2PM dew point of 84F.

00z on 7/5.................100F (87F) on 7/18 (80 Dew Point), 99F (86F) on 7/19 & 100F (87F) on 7/20 (80 Dew Point).

00z on 7/7.................99F (94F) on 7/17 and 100F (86F) on 7/19.

00z on 7/31...............99F on 8/10, 101F on 8/11, 100F on 8/13 & 99F on 8/14

06z on 7/31...............100F on 8/10, 102F on 8/11 & 99F on 8/12, plus 6 consecutive mornings of Mins >/=80F DOUBLING the previous all-time record.

 

Honorable mentions:

00z/June 12th six consecutive days of 90 plus with 97F (82F) on 6/25, 99F (81F) on 6/26 and 98F (74F)  on 6/27.

12z/ June 15th 99F (81F) on 6/26.

00z/June 16th nine consecutive 90 plus days and ends with 99F (95F) on 7/1.

06z/June 21st 99F (84F) on 7/6.  Run ends with 8 (7) consecutive days of 90 plus and also has 5 (0) consecutive days of dew points of 79F or higher.  :wacko:

12z/June 21st 99F on 6/30 (95F) & 7/1 (95F) .

00z/June 23rd 99F on 6/30 (95F) & 7/2 (97F)

00z/June 26th 99F (95F) on 7/1.

12z/June 26th 99F (95F) on 7/1.

00z/June 29th 99F on 7/1 (95F) , 7/2 (97F) & 7/5 (94F) .

06z/June 29th 99F on 7/1 (95F) & 7/2 (97F) .

12z/July 5th 99F (87F) on 7/20.

18z/July 5th 99F (83F) on 7/15.

06z/July 6th 99F (95F) on 7/16

18z/July 6th 99F (87F) on 7/22 with calm winds (at 18z) all the way up thru 850mb.

12z/July 9th 99F (87F) on 7/22

18z/July 29th  99F on 8/10

06z/August 4th 99F on 8/16

 

# Of Times GFS has forecast a high of 100F or greater this summer: 66

62 verified outcomes: 45 highs in the 90s, 15 highs in the 80s, 2 highs in the 70s.

# Of Times ECMWF has forecast a high of 100F or greater this summer: 0

Actual number of 100 degree days so far: 0

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Verification in parentheses

 

18z on 6/1................ 100F (86F) on 6/14; 104F (80F) on 6/15 & 103F (84F) on 6/16.  86F (57F) Dew Point On 6/15.

12z on 6/16............... 100F (74F) on 6/27 , 99F (81F)  on 6/26 & 100F (88F)  on 6/28. 14 of 16 days 90 or higher, last 12 days 90 or higher. (Actual 5 days).

18z on 6/20................101F (97F) on 7/2 & 99F (98F) on 7/3; last 6 days (7/1-7/6) 95F or higher (Actual 4 days). 

18z on 6/21................ 99F (94F) on 7/5 & 101F (84F) on 7/6;

                                        Last 9 days (Actual 7 days) 90F or higher with 6 consecutive days of 80+ dew points (Actual none).

00z on 6/24................102F (95F) on 7/1 (with 80+ dew point, highest 75F) and 99F (97F) on 7/2

06z on 6/24................102F (95F) on 7/1, 103F (97F) on 7/2 (dew point of 88F, highest 75F) & 103F (98F) 7/3.

12z on 6/24................99F (95F) on 6/30 & 101F  (95F) on 7/1

18z on 6/24................101F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) on 7/2

00z on 6/25................102F (95F) on 7/1,  105F (97F) on 7/2, 102F (98F) on 7/3 & 102F (94F) 7/4.         DCA 108F (95F) on 7/2

06z on 6/25...............100F (95F) on 7/1 & 7/2 (97F)

12z on 6/25................100F (95F) on 7/1

18z on 6/25................100F (95F) on 7/1

00z on 6/28................103F (95F) on 7/1 & 99F (97F) on 7/2 

06z on 6/28................102F (95F) on 7/1 & 105F (97F) on 7/2

12z on 6/28................102F (95F) on 7/1 & 102F (97F) 7/2

18z on 6/28................100F (95F) on 7/1, 101F (97F) on 7/2, 100F (95F) on 7/5, 99F (84F) on 7/6, 99F (79F) on 7/7, 100F (88F) on 7/13

12z on 6/29................100F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) 7/2 

18z on 6/29................99F (95F) on 7/1, 100F (97F) on 7/2, 100F (88F) on 7/12, 99F (88F) on 7/13 & 100F (90F) on 7/14.

00z on 6/30................100F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) 7/2 & 99F (83F) on 7/15

06z on 6/30................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 102F (97F) on 7/2

12z on 6/30................99F (95F) on 7/1, 100F (97F) on 7/2 & 101F (98F) on 7/3

18z on 6/30...............100F (97F) on 7/2

00z on 7/1..................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 101F (97F) on 7/2

06z on 7/1.................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 101F (97F) on 7/2

12z on 7/1.................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) on 7/2

18z on 7/1.................100F (97F) on 7/2 & 99F (95F) on 7/16

00z on 7/2.................99F (97F) on 7/2, 99F (88F) on 7/13, 100F (90F) on 7/14 & 99F (83F) on 7/15

06z on 7/2.................99F (97F) on 7/2, 99F (90F) on 7/14, 100F (83F) on 7/15, 102F (95F) on 7/16

12z on 7/2.................100F (97F) on 7/2

00z on 7/3.................100F (98F) on 7/3.  

06z on 7/3.................101F (98F) on 7/3.  Also 102F (88F) on 7/13 (81 (66F)  Dew Point), & 100F (90F) on 7/14 (83 (61F) Dew Point)

12z on 7/3.................101F (98F) on 7/3, 100F (88F) on 7/13 (80 (66F)  Dew Point) & 102F (83F) on 7/15

00z on 7/4.................100F (95F) on 7/16 (80 (73F)  Dew Point)

06z on 7/4.................100F (83F) on 7/15 with a 2PM dew point of 84F (70F)  .

00z on 7/5.................100F (87F) on 7/18 (80 (72F, mid 50s in aftn)  Dew Point), 99F (86F) on 7/19 & 100F (87F) on 7/20 (80 (66F) Dew Point).

00z on 7/7.................99F (94F) on 7/17 and 100F (86F) on 7/19.

00z on 7/31...............99F on 8/10, 101F on 8/11, 100F on 8/13 & 99F on 8/14

06z on 7/31...............100F on 8/10, 102F on 8/11 & 99F on 8/12, plus 6 consecutive mornings of Mins >/=80F DOUBLING the previous all-time record.

 

Honorable mentions:

00z/June 12th six consecutive days of 90 plus with 97F (82F) on 6/25, 99F (81F) on 6/26 and 98F (74F)  on 6/27.

12z/ June 15th 99F (81F) on 6/26.

00z/June 16th nine consecutive 90 plus days and ends with 99F (95F) on 7/1.

06z/June 21st 99F (84F) on 7/6.  Run ends with 8 (7) consecutive days of 90 plus and also has 5 (0) consecutive days of dew points of 79F or higher.  :wacko:

12z/June 21st 99F on 6/30 (95F) & 7/1 (95F) .

00z/June 23rd 99F on 6/30 (95F) & 7/2 (97F)

00z/June 26th 99F (95F) on 7/1.

12z/June 26th 99F (95F) on 7/1.

00z/June 29th 99F on 7/1 (95F) , 7/2 (97F) & 7/5 (94F) .

06z/June 29th 99F on 7/1 (95F) & 7/2 (97F) .

12z/July 5th 99F (87F) on 7/20.

18z/July 5th 99F (83F) on 7/15.

06z/July 6th 99F (95F) on 7/16

18z/July 6th 99F (87F) on 7/22 with calm winds (at 18z) all the way up thru 850mb.

12z/July 9th 99F (87F) on 7/22

18z/July 29th  99F on 8/10

06z/August 4th 99F on 8/16

06z/August 6th 99F on 8/17

 

# Of Times GFS has forecast a high of 100F or greater this summer: 66

62 verified outcomes: 45 highs in the 90s, 15 highs in the 80s, 2 highs in the 70s.

# Of Times ECMWF has forecast a high of 100F or greater this summer: 0

Actual number of 100 degree days so far: 0

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I know another 100F forecast is coming, so making the current list up-to-date

 

Verification in parentheses

 

18z on 6/1................ 100F (86F) on 6/14; 104F (80F) on 6/15 & 103F (84F) on 6/16.  86F (57F) Dew Point On 6/15.

12z on 6/16............... 100F (74F) on 6/27 , 99F (81F)  on 6/26 & 100F (88F)  on 6/28. 14 of 16 days 90 or higher, last 12 days 90 or higher. (Actual 5 days).

18z on 6/20................101F (97F) on 7/2 & 99F (98F) on 7/3; last 6 days (7/1-7/6) 95F or higher (Actual 4 days). 

18z on 6/21................ 99F (94F) on 7/5 & 101F (84F) on 7/6;

                                        Last 9 days (Actual 7 days) 90F or higher with 6 consecutive days of 80+ dew points (Actual none).

00z on 6/24................102F (95F) on 7/1 (with 80+ dew point, highest 75F) and 99F (97F) on 7/2

06z on 6/24................102F (95F) on 7/1, 103F (97F) on 7/2 (dew point of 88F, highest 75F) & 103F (98F) 7/3.

12z on 6/24................99F (95F) on 6/30 & 101F  (95F) on 7/1

18z on 6/24................101F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) on 7/2

00z on 6/25................102F (95F) on 7/1,  105F (97F) on 7/2, 102F (98F) on 7/3 & 102F (94F) 7/4.         DCA 108F (95F) on 7/2

06z on 6/25...............100F (95F) on 7/1 & 7/2 (97F)

12z on 6/25................100F (95F) on 7/1

18z on 6/25................100F (95F) on 7/1

00z on 6/28................103F (95F) on 7/1 & 99F (97F) on 7/2 

06z on 6/28................102F (95F) on 7/1 & 105F (97F) on 7/2

12z on 6/28................102F (95F) on 7/1 & 102F (97F) 7/2

18z on 6/28................100F (95F) on 7/1, 101F (97F) on 7/2, 100F (95F) on 7/5, 99F (84F) on 7/6, 99F (79F) on 7/7, 100F (88F) on 7/13

12z on 6/29................100F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) 7/2 

18z on 6/29................99F (95F) on 7/1, 100F (97F) on 7/2, 100F (88F) on 7/12, 99F (88F) on 7/13 & 100F (90F) on 7/14.

00z on 6/30................100F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) 7/2 & 99F (83F) on 7/15

06z on 6/30................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 102F (97F) on 7/2

12z on 6/30................99F (95F) on 7/1, 100F (97F) on 7/2 & 101F (98F) on 7/3

18z on 6/30...............100F (97F) on 7/2

00z on 7/1..................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 101F (97F) on 7/2

06z on 7/1.................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 101F (97F) on 7/2

12z on 7/1.................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) on 7/2

18z on 7/1.................100F (97F) on 7/2 & 99F (95F) on 7/16

00z on 7/2.................99F (97F) on 7/2, 99F (88F) on 7/13, 100F (90F) on 7/14 & 99F (83F) on 7/15

06z on 7/2.................99F (97F) on 7/2, 99F (90F) on 7/14, 100F (83F) on 7/15, 102F (95F) on 7/16

12z on 7/2.................100F (97F) on 7/2

00z on 7/3.................100F (98F) on 7/3.  

06z on 7/3.................101F (98F) on 7/3.  Also 102F (88F) on 7/13 (81 (66F)  Dew Point), & 100F (90F) on 7/14 (83 (61F) Dew Point)

12z on 7/3.................101F (98F) on 7/3, 100F (88F) on 7/13 (80 (66F)  Dew Point) & 102F (83F) on 7/15

00z on 7/4.................100F (95F) on 7/16 (80 (73F)  Dew Point)

06z on 7/4.................100F (83F) on 7/15 with a 2PM dew point of 84F (70F)  .

00z on 7/5.................100F (87F) on 7/18 (80 (72F, mid 50s in aftn)  Dew Point), 99F (86F) on 7/19 & 100F (87F) on 7/20 (80 (66F) Dew Point).

00z on 7/7.................99F (94F) on 7/17 and 100F (86F) on 7/19.

00z on 7/31...............99F (91F) on 8/10, 101F (85F) on 8/11, 100F (84F) on 8/13 & 99F (83F) on 8/14

06z on 7/31...............100F (91F) on 8/10, 102F (85F) on 8/11 & 99F (86F)   on 8/12

                                      Plus 6 consecutive mornings of Mins >/=80F DOUBLING the previous all-time record.  Highest min: 72F

 

 

Honorable mentions:

00z/June 12th six consecutive days of 90 plus with 97F (82F) on 6/25, 99F (81F) on 6/26 and 98F (74F)  on 6/27.

12z/ June 15th 99F (81F) on 6/26.

00z/June 16th nine consecutive 90 plus days and ends with 99F (95F) on 7/1.

06z/June 21st 99F (84F) on 7/6.  Run ends with 8 (7) consecutive days of 90 plus and also has 5 (0) consecutive days of dew points of 79F or higher.  :wacko:

12z/June 21st 99F on 6/30 (95F) & 7/1 (95F) .

00z/June 23rd 99F on 6/30 (95F) & 7/2 (97F)

00z/June 26th 99F (95F) on 7/1.

12z/June 26th 99F (95F) on 7/1.

00z/June 29th 99F on 7/1 (95F) , 7/2 (97F) & 7/5 (94F) .

06z/June 29th 99F on 7/1 (95F) & 7/2 (97F) .

12z/July 5th 99F (87F) on 7/20.

18z/July 5th 99F (83F) on 7/15.

06z/July 6th 99F (95F) on 7/16

18z/July 6th 99F (87F) on 7/22 with calm winds (at 18z) all the way up thru 850mb.

12z/July 9th 99F (87F) on 7/22

18z/July 29th  99F (91F) on 8/10

06z/August 4th 99F (89F) on 8/16

06z/August 6th 99F (93F) on 8/17

 

# Of Times GFS has forecast a high of 100F or greater this summer: 66

66 verified outcomes: 46 highs in the 90s, 18 highs in the 80s, 2 highs in the 70s.

# Of Times ECMWF has forecast a high of 100F or greater this summer: 0

Actual number of 100 degree days so far: 0

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This is how you bust a within 24hr forecast by 5 degrees and one can see the contamination after 15z at 925mb.

f.JPG.fdc58046241af37ab731c7ee4483bcba.JPG

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I know another 100F forecast is coming, so making the current list up-to-date

Thank-you GFS for not letting me down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Verification in parentheses

 

18z on 6/1................ 100F (86F) on 6/14; 104F (80F) on 6/15 & 103F (84F) on 6/16.  86F (57F) Dew Point On 6/15.

12z on 6/16............... 100F (74F) on 6/27 , 99F (81F)  on 6/26 & 100F (88F)  on 6/28. 14 of 16 days 90 or higher, last 12 days 90 or higher. (Actual 5 days).

18z on 6/20................101F (97F) on 7/2 & 99F (98F) on 7/3; last 6 days (7/1-7/6) 95F or higher (Actual 4 days). 

18z on 6/21................ 99F (94F) on 7/5 & 101F (84F) on 7/6;

                                        Last 9 days (Actual 7 days) 90F or higher with 6 consecutive days of 80+ dew points (Actual none).

00z on 6/24................102F (95F) on 7/1 (with 80+ dew point, highest 75F) and 99F (97F) on 7/2

06z on 6/24................102F (95F) on 7/1, 103F (97F) on 7/2 (dew point of 88F, highest 75F) & 103F (98F) 7/3.

12z on 6/24................99F (95F) on 6/30 & 101F  (95F) on 7/1

18z on 6/24................101F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) on 7/2

00z on 6/25................102F (95F) on 7/1,  105F (97F) on 7/2, 102F (98F) on 7/3 & 102F (94F) 7/4.         DCA 108F (95F) on 7/2

06z on 6/25...............100F (95F) on 7/1 & 7/2 (97F)

12z on 6/25................100F (95F) on 7/1

18z on 6/25................100F (95F) on 7/1

00z on 6/28................103F (95F) on 7/1 & 99F (97F) on 7/2 

06z on 6/28................102F (95F) on 7/1 & 105F (97F) on 7/2

12z on 6/28................102F (95F) on 7/1 & 102F (97F) 7/2

18z on 6/28................100F (95F) on 7/1, 101F (97F) on 7/2, 100F (95F) on 7/5, 99F (84F) on 7/6, 99F (79F) on 7/7, 100F (88F) on 7/13

12z on 6/29................100F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) 7/2 

18z on 6/29................99F (95F) on 7/1, 100F (97F) on 7/2, 100F (88F) on 7/12, 99F (88F) on 7/13 & 100F (90F) on 7/14.

00z on 6/30................100F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) 7/2 & 99F (83F) on 7/15

06z on 6/30................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 102F (97F) on 7/2

12z on 6/30................99F (95F) on 7/1, 100F (97F) on 7/2 & 101F (98F) on 7/3

18z on 6/30...............100F (97F) on 7/2

00z on 7/1..................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 101F (97F) on 7/2

06z on 7/1.................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 101F (97F) on 7/2

12z on 7/1.................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) on 7/2

18z on 7/1.................100F (97F) on 7/2 & 99F (95F) on 7/16

00z on 7/2.................99F (97F) on 7/2, 99F (88F) on 7/13, 100F (90F) on 7/14 & 99F (83F) on 7/15

06z on 7/2.................99F (97F) on 7/2, 99F (90F) on 7/14, 100F (83F) on 7/15, 102F (95F) on 7/16

12z on 7/2.................100F (97F) on 7/2

00z on 7/3.................100F (98F) on 7/3.  

06z on 7/3.................101F (98F) on 7/3.  Also 102F (88F) on 7/13 (81 (66F)  Dew Point), & 100F (90F) on 7/14 (83 (61F) Dew Point)

12z on 7/3.................101F (98F) on 7/3, 100F (88F) on 7/13 (80 (66F)  Dew Point) & 102F (83F) on 7/15

00z on 7/4.................100F (95F) on 7/16 (80 (73F)  Dew Point)

06z on 7/4.................100F (83F) on 7/15 with a 2PM dew point of 84F (70F)  .

00z on 7/5.................100F (87F) on 7/18 (80 (72F, mid 50s in aftn)  Dew Point), 99F (86F) on 7/19 & 100F (87F) on 7/20 (80 (66F) Dew Point).

00z on 7/7.................99F (94F) on 7/17 and 100F (86F) on 7/19.

00z on 7/31...............99F (91F) on 8/10, 101F (85F) on 8/11, 100F (84F) on 8/13 & 99F (83F) on 8/14

06z on 7/31...............100F (91F) on 8/10, 102F (85F) on 8/11 & 99F (86F)   on 8/12

                                      Plus 6 consecutive mornings of Mins >/=80F DOUBLING the previous all-time record.  Highest min: 72F

18z on 8/31...............100F on 9/5  (with a 23C 15z 925MB temp).

 

Honorable mentions:

00z/June 12th six consecutive days of 90 plus with 97F (82F) on 6/25, 99F (81F) on 6/26 and 98F (74F)  on 6/27.

12z/ June 15th 99F (81F) on 6/26.

00z/June 16th nine consecutive 90 plus days and ends with 99F (95F) on 7/1.

06z/June 21st 99F (84F) on 7/6.  Run ends with 8 (7) consecutive days of 90 plus and also has 5 (0) consecutive days of dew points of 79F or higher.  :wacko:

12z/June 21st 99F on 6/30 (95F) & 7/1 (95F) .

00z/June 23rd 99F on 6/30 (95F) & 7/2 (97F)

00z/June 26th 99F (95F) on 7/1.

12z/June 26th 99F (95F) on 7/1.

00z/June 29th 99F on 7/1 (95F) , 7/2 (97F) & 7/5 (94F) .

06z/June 29th 99F on 7/1 (95F) & 7/2 (97F) .

12z/July 5th 99F (87F) on 7/20.

18z/July 5th 99F (83F) on 7/15.

06z/July 6th 99F (95F) on 7/16

18z/July 6th 99F (87F) on 7/22 with calm winds (at 18z) all the way up thru 850mb.

12z/July 9th 99F (87F) on 7/22

18z/July 29th  99F (91F) on 8/10

06z/August 4th 99F (89F) on 8/16

06z/August 6th 99F (93F) on 8/17

 

# Of Times GFS has forecast a high of 100F or greater in 2018: 67

66 verified outcomes: 46 highs in the 90s, 18 highs in the 80s, 2 highs in the 70s.

# Of Times ECMWF has forecast a high of 100F or greater this year: 0

Actual number of 100 degree days so far: 0

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FINAL. 

The next gen gfs is going to have more 100s forecast than this current version next year in shorter term times if this experimental year is any indication.

 

18z on 6/1................ 100F (86F) on 6/14; 104F (80F) on 6/15 & 103F (84F) on 6/16.  86F (57F) Dew Point On 6/15.

12z on 6/16............... 100F (74F) on 6/27 , 99F (81F)  on 6/26 & 100F (88F)  on 6/28. 14 of 16 days 90 or higher, last 12 days 90 or higher. (Actual 5 days).

18z on 6/20................101F (97F) on 7/2 & 99F (98F) on 7/3; last 6 days (7/1-7/6) 95F or higher (Actual 4 days). 

18z on 6/21................ 99F (94F) on 7/5 & 101F (84F) on 7/6;

                                        Last 9 days (Actual 7 days) 90F or higher with 6 consecutive days of 80+ dew points (Actual none).

00z on 6/24................102F (95F) on 7/1 (with 80+ dew point, highest 75F) and 99F (97F) on 7/2

06z on 6/24................102F (95F) on 7/1, 103F (97F) on 7/2 (dew point of 88F, highest 75F) & 103F (98F) 7/3.

12z on 6/24................99F (95F) on 6/30 & 101F  (95F) on 7/1

18z on 6/24................101F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) on 7/2

00z on 6/25................102F (95F) on 7/1,  105F (97F) on 7/2, 102F (98F) on 7/3 & 102F (94F) 7/4.         DCA 108F (95F) on 7/2

06z on 6/25...............100F (95F) on 7/1 & 7/2 (97F)

12z on 6/25................100F (95F) on 7/1

18z on 6/25................100F (95F) on 7/1

00z on 6/28................103F (95F) on 7/1 & 99F (97F) on 7/2 

06z on 6/28................102F (95F) on 7/1 & 105F (97F) on 7/2

12z on 6/28................102F (95F) on 7/1 & 102F (97F) 7/2

18z on 6/28................100F (95F) on 7/1, 101F (97F) on 7/2, 100F (95F) on 7/5, 99F (84F) on 7/6, 99F (79F) on 7/7, 100F (88F) on 7/13

12z on 6/29................100F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) 7/2 

18z on 6/29................99F (95F) on 7/1, 100F (97F) on 7/2, 100F (88F) on 7/12, 99F (88F) on 7/13 & 100F (90F) on 7/14.

00z on 6/30................100F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) 7/2 & 99F (83F) on 7/15

06z on 6/30................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 102F (97F) on 7/2

12z on 6/30................99F (95F) on 7/1, 100F (97F) on 7/2 & 101F (98F) on 7/3

18z on 6/30...............100F (97F) on 7/2

00z on 7/1..................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 101F (97F) on 7/2

06z on 7/1.................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 101F (97F) on 7/2

12z on 7/1.................99F (95F) on 7/1 & 100F (97F) on 7/2

18z on 7/1.................100F (97F) on 7/2 & 99F (95F) on 7/16

00z on 7/2.................99F (97F) on 7/2, 99F (88F) on 7/13, 100F (90F) on 7/14 & 99F (83F) on 7/15

06z on 7/2.................99F (97F) on 7/2, 99F (90F) on 7/14, 100F (83F) on 7/15, 102F (95F) on 7/16

12z on 7/2.................100F (97F) on 7/2

00z on 7/3.................100F (98F) on 7/3.  

06z on 7/3.................101F (98F) on 7/3.  Also 102F (88F) on 7/13 (81 (66F)  Dew Point), & 100F (90F) on 7/14 (83 (61F) Dew Point)

12z on 7/3.................101F (98F) on 7/3, 100F (88F) on 7/13 (80 (66F)  Dew Point) & 102F (83F) on 7/15

00z on 7/4.................100F (95F) on 7/16 (80 (73F)  Dew Point)

06z on 7/4.................100F (83F) on 7/15 with a 2PM dew point of 84F (70F)  .

00z on 7/5.................100F (87F) on 7/18 (80 (72F, mid 50s in aftn)  Dew Point), 99F (86F) on 7/19 & 100F (87F) on 7/20 (80 (66F) Dew Point).

00z on 7/7.................99F (94F) on 7/17 and 100F (86F) on 7/19.

00z on 7/31...............99F (91F) on 8/10, 101F (85F) on 8/11, 100F (84F) on 8/13 & 99F (83F) on 8/14

06z on 7/31...............100F (91F) on 8/10, 102F (85F) on 8/11 & 99F (86F)   on 8/12

                                      Plus 6 consecutive mornings of Mins >/=80F DOUBLING the previous all-time record.  Highest min: 72F

18z on 8/31...............100F  (95F) on 9/5 

 

Honorable mentions:

00z/June 12th six consecutive days of 90 plus with 97F (82F) on 6/25, 99F (81F) on 6/26 and 98F (74F)  on 6/27.

12z/ June 15th 99F (81F) on 6/26.

00z/June 16th nine consecutive 90 plus days and ends with 99F (95F) on 7/1.

06z/June 21st 99F (84F) on 7/6.  Run ends with 8 (7) consecutive days of 90 plus and also has 5 (0) consecutive days of dew points of 79F or higher.  :wacko:

12z/June 21st 99F on 6/30 (95F) & 7/1 (95F) .

00z/June 23rd 99F on 6/30 (95F) & 7/2 (97F)

00z/June 26th 99F (95F) on 7/1.

12z/June 26th 99F (95F) on 7/1.

00z/June 29th 99F on 7/1 (95F) , 7/2 (97F) & 7/5 (94F) .

06z/June 29th 99F on 7/1 (95F) & 7/2 (97F) .

12z/July 5th 99F (87F) on 7/20.

18z/July 5th 99F (83F) on 7/15.

06z/July 6th 99F (95F) on 7/16

18z/July 6th 99F (87F) on 7/22 with calm winds (at 18z) all the way up thru 850mb.

12z/July 9th 99F (87F) on 7/22

18z/July 29th  99F (91F) on 8/10

06z/August 4th 99F (89F) on 8/16

06z/August 6th 99F (93F) on 8/17

00z/September 1st 99F (95F) on 9/5

06z/September 1st 99F (95F) on 9/5

 

# Of Times GFS has forecast a high of 100F or greater in 2018: 67

67 verified outcomes: 47 highs in the 90s, 18 highs in the 80s, 2 highs in the 70s.

# Of Times ECMWF has forecast a high of 100F or greater this year: 0

Actual number of 100 degree days so far in 2018 in PHL: 0

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