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Rainshadow

If It Is Meteorlogical Summer, The GFS Must Forecast 100 Degree Days & Above 80 Degree Dew Points.

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To be fair, the previous version was worse, this is one area that the current version is better.  It still doesnt stop it though from running a "little hot" especially in la la land.

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I may have to take back my to be fair.  This is a special kind of stupid, even if it is not suppose to be taken literally and only as a pattern indicator.

Capture.JPG.899d702d3b9e77aba97e8397fec5d647.JPG

 

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18z on 6/1................ 100F on 6/14; 104F on 6/15 & 103F on 6/16.  86F Dew Point On 6/15.

 

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Honorable mention:

00z/June 12th six consecutive days of 90 plus with 97F on 6/25, 99F on 6/26 and 98F on 6/27.

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On 6/1/2018 at 11:04 PM, Rainshadow said:

18z on 6/1................ 100F on 6/14; 104F on 6/15 & 103F on 6/16.  86F Dew Point On 6/15.

 

Honorable mentions:

00z/June 12th six consecutive days of 90 plus with 97F on 6/25, 99F on 6/26 and 98F on 6/27.

12z/ June 15th 99F on 6/26.

00z/June 16th nine consecutive 90 plus days and ends with 99F on 7/1.

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12z June 16th, 14 of 16 days 90 or higher, last 12 days 90 or higher. 100F on 6/27 & 6/28, 99F on 6/26. Congrats.

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Verification in parentheses

 

 

18z on 6/1................ 100F (86F) on 6/14; 104F (80F) on 6/15 & 103F (84F) on 6/16.  86F (57F) Dew Point On 6/15.

12z on 6/16................14 of 16 days 90 or higher, last 12 days 90 or higher. 100F on 6/27 & 6/28, 99F on 6/26. Congrats.

 

Honorable mentions:

00z/June 12th six consecutive days of 90 plus with 97F on 6/25, 99F on 6/26 and 98F on 6/27.

12z/ June 15th 99F on 6/26.

00z/June 16th nine consecutive 90 plus days and ends with 99F on 7/1.

 

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Just like a bad haircut these la la land record breaking heat outcomes wont go away with the new GFS in a day.

 

fv3p_T2m_neus_44.png

fv3p_T2m_neus_48.png

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Verification in parentheses

 

 

18z on 6/1................ 100F (86F) on 6/14; 104F (80F) on 6/15 & 103F (84F) on 6/16.  86F (57F) Dew Point On 6/15.

12z on 6/16................14 of 16 days 90 or higher, last 12 days 90 or higher. 100F on 6/27 & 6/28, 99F on 6/26. Congrats.

18z on 6/21................101F on 7/2 & 99F on 7/3 last 6 days (7/1-7/6) 95F or higher.

 

Honorable mentions:

00z/June 12th six consecutive days of 90 plus with 97F on 6/25, 99F on 6/26 and 98F on 6/27.

12z/ June 15th 99F on 6/26.

00z/June 16th nine consecutive 90 plus days and ends with 99F on 7/1.

06z/June 21st 99F on 7/6.  Run ends with 8 consecutive days of 90 plus and also has 5 consecutive days of dew points of 79F or higher.  :wacko:

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Capture.JPG.b46a3098d38624a9b6d7cc14b2b8142a.JPG

Ok, that gives the NAM a run for it's $$ that showed the freezing rain for this morning here. Morning low was actually in the 50's. 

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19 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Ok, that gives the NAM a run for it's $$ that showed the freezing rain for this morning here. Morning low was actually in the 50's. 

I'd say you were joking, but given it is the NAM we are talking about where no forecast is impossible, I'd say you are serious. BTW Mitch congrats on that TOR for Wilkes-Barre, heightwise not a great place to be I assume, beam must have been 5kish off the ground? Plus from what I remember of that day, it didn't scream massive TOR potential.

 

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I'd say you were joking, but given it is the NAM we are talking about where no forecast is impossible, I'd say you are serious. BTW Mitch congrats on that TOR for Wilkes-Barre, heightwise not a great place to be I assume, beam must have been 5kish off the ground? Plus from what I remember of that day, it didn't scream massive TOR potential.

 

Potential was present over our area not a great signal but 1-2,000 J/KG CAPE plus 100 M/S2 or so of 0-1 Heilcity. About 30 mins prior we had another EF-2 in Bradford county. Yes, the radar scans were several thousand feet off the ground. I posted the NAM sounding pic in the other thread. Thanks! 

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Verification in parentheses

 

 

18z on 6/1................ 100F (86F) on 6/14; 104F (80F) on 6/15 & 103F (84F) on 6/16.  86F (57F) Dew Point On 6/15.

12z on 6/16................14 of 16 days 90 or higher, last 12 days 90 or higher. 100F on 6/27 & 6/28, 99F on 6/26. Congrats.

18z on 6/20................101F on 7/2 & 99F on 7/3; last 6 days (7/1-7/6) 95F or higher.

18z on 6/21................101F on 7/6 & 99F on 7/5; last 9 days 90F or higher with 6 consecutive days of 80+ dew points.

 

Honorable mentions:

00z/June 12th six consecutive days of 90 plus with 97F on 6/25, 99F on 6/26 and 98F on 6/27.

12z/ June 15th 99F on 6/26.

00z/June 16th nine consecutive 90 plus days and ends with 99F on 7/1.

06z/June 21st 99F on 7/6.  Run ends with 8 consecutive days of 90 plus and also has 5 consecutive days of dew points of 79F or higher.  :wacko:

12z/June 21st 99F on 6/30 & 7/1.

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Verification in parentheses

 

 

18z on 6/1................ 100F (86F) on 6/14; 104F (80F) on 6/15 & 103F (84F) on 6/16.  86F (57F) Dew Point On 6/15.

12z on 6/16................14 of 16 days 90 or higher, last 12 days 90 or higher. 100F on 6/27 & 6/28, 99F on 6/26. Congrats.

18z on 6/20................101F on 7/2 & 99F on 7/3; last 6 days (7/1-7/6) 95F or higher.

18z on 6/21................101F on 7/6 & 99F on 7/5; last 9 days 90F or higher with 6 consecutive days of 80+ dew points.

 

Honorable mentions:

00z/June 12th six consecutive days of 90 plus with 97F on 6/25, 99F on 6/26 and 98F on 6/27.

12z/ June 15th 99F on 6/26.

00z/June 16th nine consecutive 90 plus days and ends with 99F on 7/1.

06z/June 21st 99F on 7/6.  Run ends with 8 consecutive days of 90 plus and also has 5 consecutive days of dew points of 79F or higher.  :wacko:

12z/June 21st 99F on 6/30 & 7/1.

00z/June 23rd 99F on 6/30 & 7/2.

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No doubt it is going to be getting hot, but then again (this is 2 pm in the afternoon, a couple of hours before the typiical max temp of the day)....

 

gfs_T2m_neus_31.png

gfs_T2m_neus_35.png

gfs_T2m_neus_39.png

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Verification in parentheses

 

 

18z on 6/1................ 100F (86F) on 6/14; 104F (80F) on 6/15 & 103F (84F) on 6/16.  86F (57F) Dew Point On 6/15.

12z on 6/16................14 of 16 days 90 or higher, last 12 days 90 or higher. 100F on 6/27 & 6/28, 99F on 6/26. Congrats.

18z on 6/20................101F on 7/2 & 99F on 7/3; last 6 days (7/1-7/6) 95F or higher.

18z on 6/21................101F on 7/6 & 99F on 7/5; last 9 days 90F or higher with 6 consecutive days of 80+ dew points.

00z on 6/24................102F on 7/1 (with 80+ dew point) and 99F on 7/2

06z on 6/24................

 

Honorable mentions:

00z/June 12th six consecutive days of 90 plus with 97F on 6/25, 99F on 6/26 and 98F on 6/27.

12z/ June 15th 99F on 6/26.

00z/June 16th nine consecutive 90 plus days and ends with 99F on 7/1.

06z/June 21st 99F on 7/6.  Run ends with 8 consecutive days of 90 plus and also has 5 consecutive days of dew points of 79F or higher.  :wacko:

12z/June 21st 99F on 6/30 & 7/1.

00z/June 23rd 99F on 6/30 & 7/2.

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17 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Lol 108

Meteorstar site has it as "only" 103, feeling better?

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Verification in parentheses

 

 

18z on 6/1................ 100F (86F) on 6/14; 104F (80F) on 6/15 & 103F (84F) on 6/16.  86F (57F) Dew Point On 6/15.

12z on 6/16................14 of 16 days 90 or higher, last 12 days 90 or higher. 100F on 6/27 & 6/28, 99F on 6/26. Congrats.

18z on 6/20................101F on 7/2 & 99F on 7/3; last 6 days (7/1-7/6) 95F or higher.

18z on 6/21................101F on 7/6 & 99F on 7/5; last 9 days 90F or higher with 6 consecutive days of 80+ dew points.

00z on 6/24................102F on 7/1 (with 80+ dew point) and 99F on 7/2

06z on 6/24................102F on 7/1, 103F on 7/2 (with dew points of 76 & 88 & 95% sky coverage) & 7/3.

 

Honorable mentions:

00z/June 12th six consecutive days of 90 plus with 97F on 6/25, 99F on 6/26 and 98F on 6/27.

12z/ June 15th 99F on 6/26.

00z/June 16th nine consecutive 90 plus days and ends with 99F on 7/1.

06z/June 21st 99F on 7/6.  Run ends with 8 consecutive days of 90 plus and also has 5 consecutive days of dew points of 79F or higher.  :wacko:

12z/June 21st 99F on 6/30 & 7/1.

00z/June 23rd 99F on 6/30 & 7/2.

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Meteorstar site has it as "only" 103, feeling better?

I’d rather 108, challenge all time record highs 

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I’d rather 108, challenge all time record highs 

On that run you'd break the all-time record high on two consecutive days.  Heck Paul might even reach 95.  This new GFS was suppose to be better with 2m temps, it almost looks like it got infected with whatever virus the previous GFS had.  There is no doubt it is going to be hot in my mind, but you have modeling solutions that always goes toward one end of the seasonal lunatic fringes and it is annoying (for me) to be constantly in bias correcting mode with this model in particular.

 

Capture.JPG.03c543b8b8823344c0119b826a319adb.JPG

 

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