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tombo82685

6/1-6/4 Heavy rain, flash flooding threat

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Nicest sunset I've seen in a long time, over Lake Ontario from Niagara-On-The-Lake. Just beautiful here. 

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18 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

Nicest sunset I've seen in a long time, over Lake Ontario from Niagara-On-The-Lake. Just beautiful here. 

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How long you up there? Hopefully long enough to take in all the sights. 

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1 hour ago, Parsley said:

Not a bad afternoon at all. Fair amount of sun. 

Shocking.  According to the GFS the next time the sun was suppose to shine and we have a precipitation free day is July 17, 4612.

Back to the topic, the storms moving through the lower susq and northern maryland are in no hurry.

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13 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Shocking.  According to the GFS the next time the sun was suppose to shine and we have a precipitation free day is July 17, 4612.

Back to the topic, the storms moving through the lower susq and northern maryland are in no hurry.

Hopefully it all stays south of here. HRRR says the bulk does just that. 

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Sudereyri, NW Iceland, 66 deg N, sunset 12:30AM sunrise 2:30AM

March weather - 40s.

 

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Dawn rainbow,  rare sight.  That and the HRRR make me more (or less) confident I may not need to go purchase a watercraft with excessive room for animals this weekend.  

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.04" overnight from one little pop-up shower. 

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Sudereyri, NW Iceland, 66 deg N, sunset 12:30AM sunrise 2:30AM

March weather - 40s.

 

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Awesome! Bucket list destination for me. Seem to be a lot of tiny villages around there. 

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2 hours ago, TTNwatcher said:

Dawn rainbow,  rare sight.  That and the HRRR make me more (or less) confident I may not need to go purchase a watercraft with excessive room for animals this weekend.  

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Just looking at the raw output of the convecting models it looks like they all nail Maryland with heavy rain.  Beyond that it looks like pot luck for our area with not much flooding potential north of about PHL's latitude and even at PHL's latitude I venture a guess that it is more misses than hits.  I am putting my money where my mouth is and I watered my vegetables this morning.  Of course I cut the grass yesterday,  just in case. :wacko:

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flood watch up for areas south of i78

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When the Aviation Weather Center is going sparse with their forecasts on convection, it is not going to be everywhere. 

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This weather absolutely sucks. Bring back the Memorial Day weather. 

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Annual  township/community day was cancelled today (late morning-early afternoon) here because of the weather. Win some and lose some I guess. :unsure:

Convective precip. is always a biotch to pinpoint. It's a tough call when alot of prep. has to go into outdoor events.

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20 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Annual  township/community day was cancelled today (late morning-early afternoon) here because of the weather. Win some and lose some I guess. :unsure:

Convective precip. is always a biotch to pinpoint. It's a tough call when alot of prep. has to go into outdoor events.

With convection you almost have to wait to the last possible minute.  Even if the forecast is right, the timing may be off.  But somewhere along the line it became a mortal sin to have it rain on someone unexpectedly and now all the models can forecast it to rain 28 out of the 24 hours of the day and that is ok.  But a pox on your model if a 30 minute surprise storm occurs.  No one has the common sense to know what to do in a scenario like that.   How much of the Northeast's outdoor activity economy was grinded to a halt because of model output like this?

 

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19 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

With convection you almost have to wait to the last possible minute.  Even if the forecast is right, the timing may be off.  But somewhere along the line it became a mortal sin to have it rain on someone unexpectedly and now all the models can forecast it to rain 28 out of the 24 hours of the day and that is ok.  But a pox on your model if a 30 minute surprise storm occurs.  No one has the common sense to know what to do in a scenario like that.   How much of the Northeast's outdoor activity economy was grinded to a halt because of model output like this?

 

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Yea and then the issue you have to ask when you’re 24hrs our is the model right showing that or on crack?

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Anybody else watching that storm center over the Appalachians and West Va.? It's just been sitting there percolating without moving north or east for about six hours. 
They be getting pasted on the ground.

 

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

With convection you almost have to wait to the last possible minute.  Even if the forecast is right, the timing may be off.  But somewhere along the line it became a mortal sin to have it rain on someone unexpectedly and now all the models can forecast it to rain 28 out of the 24 hours of the day and that is ok.  But a pox on your model if a 30 minute surprise storm occurs.  No one has the common sense to know what to do in a scenario like that.   How much of the Northeast's outdoor activity economy was grinded to a halt because of model output like this?

 

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Yup. 

I may have to offer the township my services for free....or maybe at the cost of a sewer bill. :)

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Gfs reminds me of the old 5 day forecasts (presented in map form by an on-air met) on the Weather Channel that used to tick my dad off so much. Why?, they would basically broad brush scatttered showers and thunderstorm all over the US map every day in the summer even when areal coverage within their swath would probably be under 20%. 

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I wondered whether a 6:00 AM rainbow was a rare sight when I saw it on I-95 heading to course. Nice pics!

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53 minutes ago, Harbourton said:

I wondered whether a 6:00 AM rainbow was a rare sight when I saw it on I-95 heading to course. Nice pics!

Thunder and now heavy rain.  Moving in from the east, so at least the day is consistent on being reversed....

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2 hours ago, Parsley said:

Gfs reminds me of the old 5 day forecasts (presented in map form by an on-air met) on the Weather Channel that used to tick my dad off so much. Why?, they would basically broad brush scatttered showers and thunderstorm all over the US map every day in the summer even when areal coverage within their swath would probably be under 20%. 

I remember those, they annoyed me too.

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20 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Missed it by this much...

 

thats good, you don't need any rain

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Curious to see what happens tonight and overnight. A good handful of these meso models are going to town from about Kop right back to lns area overnight with heavy rain look. Think it's in response to wind shift to onshore flow with a front. 

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