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Rainshadow

Meteorological Summer Pattern Discussion; It Is July And It Is Hot

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1 hour ago, Feb said:

Grass is brown and going dormant. Not sure I ever saw it look this bad so early in the summer. 

I know this is out there and would be similar to winter of a favorable pattern that may not just produce because it is la la land, but the week 2 outlook on both the GEFS and EPS does look wetter and cooler with a big old trof for July over the Great Lakes.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

I know this is out there and would be similar to winter of a favorable pattern that may not just produce because it is la la land, but the week 2 outlook on both the GEFS and EPS does look wetter and cooler with a big old trof for July over the Great Lakes.

Hopefully they are correct. 

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The wetter pattern look continues and we are within la la land now.  What gives it legs is it is suppose to start on the weekend. I suppose as to what could go dry, the Bermuda Ridge could be stronger and deflect the wetter weather farther west, but this does look wetter and humid (but not as hot).

 

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ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_8.png

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The transition to a wetter pattern continues starting Sunday both the Euro & GFS have measurable pcpn forecast every day to the end of their respective runs.

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7/8:

GEFS brings near normal heights back from the 10th thru the 12th (vs above nml heights).  12th-19th flow is more zonal (hotter) before further out in la la land time the Rockies ridge starts to re-establish itself for the rest of the run.

 

7/13:

GEFS brings the heat ridge to California and the southern Rockies with near normal heights returning after the CFP on the 18th.  Shorter wavelengths then retrograde the Bermuda Ridge westward and above normal heights return starting on the weekend of the 21st.  This is the first time (ok la la land) because of the trof positioning that the pattern looks wetter (also would be pretty humid).  Then from the 24th-28th:unsure: the Bermuda ridge edges eastward and eastern conus troffing remains.  There are even some below normal heights over the Great Lakes.  :o

 

7/17 (Today):

GEFS (and EPS) continues the wet turn with a re-enforcing shot coming across the top of the heat ridge:  First we have below normal heights for this Wednesday & Thursday. Then the negative tilt (wet) anomalously strong trof approaches this weekend (7/21-7/22). The Bermuda Ridge stops it as it weakens early next week.  Then the next Great Lakes trof intensifies during the second half of the week.  Granted this feature is currently in the Pacific.   While the week of 7/29 sees the overall features dampen in a GEFS resolution, the heat ridges remain in place over the Rockies and western Atlantic.  This looks wet (and humid).   

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