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Rainshadow

Meteorological Summer Pattern Discussion; It Is July And It Is Hot

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I am expecting a yawn soon.  I suppose it could be outlooked (fwiw probably not much) worse.

CFS2 Monthly ridge axes either in Rockies or just to the lee of.  June looks warmest relative to normal while to me August looks coolest.

cfs-mon_01_z500aMean_month_us_1.png.af3d6927e263e0efaf8320c33fe088ac.png

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cfs-mon_01_apcpna_multimonth_us_1.png.03a2201020ababb34657906964e4a82b.pngnmme_T2maMean_month_us_1.png.f43887a3fdcf389befca0215ea971e6a.pngnmme_apcpna_multimonth_us_1.png.36982ba83c7849a6c68b0dfd18cbec4c.png

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No yawn from me, thats a northwest flow. Just keep that ridge well west of here and normal to a little above normal precip

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Love when the gfs pumps upper 90s with rain and 94% cloud cover 

665807DC-99A7-47C6-95A5-819FC5FE0ED5.png

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Love when the gfs pumps upper 90s with rain and 94% cloud cover 

665807DC-99A7-47C6-95A5-819FC5FE0ED5.png

Also despite 8 straight 12hr periods of measurable rain.  That is some hot air mass.....

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Love when the gfs pumps upper 90s with rain and 94% cloud cover 

665807DC-99A7-47C6-95A5-819FC5FE0ED5.png

If it were winter, the op would have been the run with the 552dm height into the Poconos.

f348.gif.12f35f84cb1af9686132a38e247b4fc7.gif

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That was an ugly look on the euro. EPS support it too with cut off low being caught under red block. If true could be days and days of showers and onshore flow puke.  On the plus side of things big heat is no where to be found the next 15 days with below normal hgts becoming established later this week 

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18 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

That was an ugly look on the euro. EPS support it too with cut off low being caught under red block. If true could be days and days of showers and onshore flow puke.  On the plus side of things big heat is no where to be found the next 15 days with below normal hgts becoming established later this week 


Gardens cancel...

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18 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

That was an ugly look on the euro. EPS support it too with cut off low being caught under red block. If true could be days and days of showers and onshore flow puke.  On the plus side of things big heat is no where to be found the next 15 days with below normal hgts becoming established later this week 

can see it here as we have an upper level low caught under the higher hgts to the north

eps_z500a_exnamer_31.png

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Looks like a lot of blue anomalies around the globe, except for ENSO regions and the Sargasso Sea.  Overall not much change globally since last month - outslide the disappearance of the cold anomaly of the Pac NW and less cold intensity SW of South America - but I'm always curious of any potential influence on seasonal outlooks.

 

anomnight.5.28.2018.gif

 

anomnight.4.30.2018.gif

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On 5/28/2018 at 5:38 PM, tombo82685 said:

That was an ugly look on the euro. EPS support it too with cut off low being caught under rex block. If true could be days and days of showers and onshore flow puke.  On the plus side of things big heat is no where to be found the next 15 days with below normal hgts becoming established later this week 

This weekend's low caught under blocking highecmwf_z500aNorm_us_5.png

if that doesn't make you happy, the we have another 2 day later

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_8.png

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_10.png

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Maybe some 40s next week for lows?

Hopefully it will be a cold rain to go with those temps.

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4 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Hopefully it will be a cold rain to go with those temps.

Wonder what parsley thinks about this

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Wonder what parsley thinks about this

I’ll take 40s and 50s....if it’s sunny. ;)

I need the yard to dry out. It’s gross. 

 

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At this point I wonder if we'll even have a summer (at least like the ones I remember from the past)???

This wash, rinse, repeat of the western ridge/eastern trough is getting old rather quickly. Does or can the  pattern break down, or is summer just going to be miserable with a warm/hot day here and there followed by days of cool clouds and showers?

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31 minutes ago, Voyager said:

At this point I wonder if we'll even have a summer (at least like the ones I remember from the past)???

This wash, rinse, repeat of the western ridge/eastern trough is getting old rather quickly. Does or can the  pattern break down, or is summer just going to be miserable with a warm/hot day here and there followed by days of cool clouds and showers?

Cloudy yea it’s been miserable. Cool though, that it hasn’t. Philly is like 3+ degrees above normal. Barely had any below normal days this month. 

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2 hours ago, Voyager said:

At this point I wonder if we'll even have a summer (at least like the ones I remember from the past)???

This wash, rinse, repeat of the western ridge/eastern trough is getting old rather quickly. Does or can the  pattern break down, or is summer just going to be miserable with a warm/hot day here and there followed by days of cool clouds and showers?

All the official Mt. Holly stations are 4 - 6 degrees above average for the month. The nation as a whole is making a run a the warmest May on record. Eastern trough is not reflected in these anomalies, more a result of a few big highs over eastern Canada promoting a marine flow over our area.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

All the official Mt. Holly stations are 4 - 6 degrees above average for the month. The nation as a whole is making a run a the warmest May on record. Eastern trough is not reflected in these anomalies, more a result of a few big highs over eastern Canada promoting a marine flow over our area.

 

Yup, Phily has only had 7 of 30 days this month below normal. Heck the average high still isn't even 80 yet

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It might just be an anomaly in the Tamaqua/Hazleton area, but it just seems like it's been cooler. Can't argue with those stats, though.

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43 minutes ago, Voyager said:

It might just be an anomaly in the Tamaqua/Hazleton area, but it just seems like it's been cooler. Can't argue with those stats, though.

Well remember you’re further nw and higher in elev. so your avg temp right now is probably mid 70s maybe?

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7 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Yup, Phily has only had 7 of 30 days this month below normal. Heck the average high still isn't even 80 yet

Wonder if it has more to do with mins than maxes.

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28 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Wonder if it has more to do with mins than maxes.

Looks like 18 of those days highs were above normal. 

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15 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Wonder if it has more to do with mins than maxes.

In patterns like this (mild/wet) I always feel like that skews things 

Is there a place where highs and lows are recorded with each of there daily departures kept as well?

Example: 82/70 .... +3/+8 for the day

I'd also like access to daily norms. high/low in list form for each calendar day. Surely the great internet has that somewhere.

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I see the NWS dailies have that breakdown....

A good example of a cloudy/wet day skewing things + with mild nights. 

f.png

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Approaching Father's Day, the GFS has been going hog wild with temps near 100F and even over 100F because after all it is the GFS.  But does the teleconnections and MJO fit the general idea?

Well MJO phase 6 does support a heat ridge in the Gulf Coast states (pretty strong correlation), so if the MJO goes into it (Forget the GEFS outlook of it going backwards, some outlooks should be used as compost) and not dives into the COD, it is something to look at as to how strong the ridge is.  At least phase 7 is strongly correlated to Great Lakes cool, so sustainability should not be an issue other than drying us out and making it easier for repeat offenders.

The predicted teleconnections do show warmth across the board, so one can say the week of June 10th I would be on board for above normal temps, hopefully not as pie in the sky as some of those off sounding runs of the GFS.

4indices.png.1249d34ec2822cf0f97c532fdfb75bb2.png

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