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Rainshadow

Meteorological Summer Pattern Discussion; It Is August And It Is Humid

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One week or so later:

 

7/24 GEFS:

Next Great Lakes Trof brings near normal 500mb heights thru July 29th.  There is a slight retrogression of pattern beyond that with third approaching trof taking residence in the western Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley.  Thus WAR gets to bring above normal 500mb heights starting on July 30th and remaining thru August 5th. La La Land, (Aug 6-9) pattern then progresses east with heat ridge in SE rockies and Southern Plains and trof axis in eastern Great lakes.  Near normal heights for us.

 

8/1 GEFS:

Retrograding Bermuda Ridge keeps our area in above normal 500mb heights til August 7th.  Don't know if it weakens or just merges with southern Rockies ridge, but that process finishes about then.  Like previous post there is an outlooked Eastern Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley Trof with the heat ridge remaining in the Rockies.  Below normal 500mb heights :blink::o:blink: arrive on August 9th over us with said featured trof and we get back to normal heights by August 11th.   Near normal heights (hint of east coast trof, too washed out at this forecast point) with ridge position remaining in the Rockies til the end of its run on the 16th.  Back in the day once we got past mid August (other than I think 1953?) the number of 90 degree days start to dwindle, so if the GEFS is close and if what is left of climo is close next week might be the last truly hot stretch of this summer and maybe this year (Please not another stinkin hot September).   

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On 5/16/2018 at 8:00 AM, Rainshadow said:

I am expecting a yawn soon.  I suppose it could be outlooked (fwiw probably not much) worse.

CFS2 Monthly ridge axes either in Rockies or just to the lee of.  June looks warmest relative to normal while to me August looks coolest.

cfs-mon_01_z500aMean_month_us_1.png.af3d6927e263e0efaf8320c33fe088ac.png

 

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_multimonth_us_1.png.03a2201020ababb34657906964e4a82b.pngnmme_apcpna_multimonth_us_1.png.36982ba83c7849a6c68b0dfd18cbec4c.png

Call it what you want, but this is going to be a pretty good CFS2 qpf outlook for the summer.

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I want to give it another day to have a big enough gap between posting, but la la land gefs beyond 252 hours is not looking too cool. It loses the Rockies heat ridge and the ridge takes new residence over the Southeast. The GEPS is somewhat similar with the main players, but a bit more latitudonally suppressed with the main features.

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4 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

I want to give it another day to have a big enough gap between posting, but la la land gefs beyond 252 hours is not looking too cool. It loses the Rockies heat ridge and the ridge takes new residence over the Southeast. The GEPS is somewhat similar with the main players, but a bit more latitudonally suppressed with the main features.

The eps aren’t looking to great either. Can see the southeast banana ridge and then compressed flow across Canada. Wouldn’t say a hot look right now but it’s certainly not cool and most likely above avg and muggy

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8/1 GEFS:

Retrograding Bermuda Ridge keeps our area in above normal 500mb heights til August 7th.  Don't know if it weakens or just merges with southern Rockies ridge, but that process finishes about then.  Like previous post there is an outlooked Eastern Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley Trof with the heat ridge remaining in the Rockies.  Below normal 500mb heights :blink::o:blink: arrive on August 9th over us with said featured trof and we get back to normal heights by August 11th.   Near normal heights (hint of east coast trof, too washed out at this forecast point) with ridge position remaining in the Rockies til the end of its run on the 16th.  Back in the day once we got past mid August (other than I think 1953?) the number of 90 degree days start to dwindle, so if the GEFS is close and if what is left of climo is close next week might be the last truly hot stretch of this summer and maybe this year (Please not another stinkin hot September).   

Well so much for that. :(

8/5 GEFS:

Big time heat ridge develops over Rockies/West centered in Nevada with an Ohio Valley centered trof east that brings near normal 500mb heights back on the 8th. This trof edges east, but of greater importance a piece of that Nevada east ridge gets caught in westerly flow and breaks off heading into the northern plains and our way. Simultaneously another retrograding Bermuda ridge starts building toward the southeast coast. The criss-crossing of both features bring above normal heights back to our area from the 13th-18th and that looks 90doable again.  Come the 18th a southern Rockies ridge/Ohio Valley trof combo re-establish themselves with near normal heights returning then.  The 06z GEFS was not as strong with features and more zonal (still normal heights) and the current GEPS ends the same way.  So I'd say the work week of August 13th not looking pretty at this point.

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On 6/2/2018 at 10:21 AM, Rainshadow said:

Here are my summer analogs.  1975 is my favorite of the four, had a very similar April & May.  They all were either the second year of a la nina or coming off a moderate la nina with enso trending away from it.  I also included the averages from the beginning to end of the series to get a better climo perspective.  So from that I'd say a near current normal summer, which would be a breath of fresh air.  Pcpnwise, well there was Agnes in 1972 and something tropical I am guessing in August 1911, so take them with a grain of salt. 

s.JPG.326632588d445bce12b506e424bd4220.JPG

Creative accounting on my part for June & July verification

June should have been -1.0F below current average, actual was -0.6F

July should have been +0.1F above current average, actual was +0.8F

August should be +0.5F (or 77.1F) above current average, actual is............................

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8/5 GEFS:

Big time heat ridge develops over Rockies/West centered in Nevada with an Ohio Valley centered trof east that brings near normal 500mb heights back on the 8th. This trof edges east, but of greater importance a piece of that Nevada east ridge gets caught in westerly flow and breaks off heading into the northern plains and our way. Simultaneously another retrograding Bermuda ridge starts building toward the southeast coast. The criss-crossing of both features bring above normal heights back to our area from the 13th-18th and that looks 90doable again.  Come the 18th a southern Rockies ridge/Ohio Valley trof combo re-establish themselves with near normal heights returning then.  The 06z GEFS was not as strong with features and more zonal (still normal heights) and the current GEPS ends the same way.  So I'd say the work week of August 13th not looking pretty at this point.

 

8/10 GEFS:

Good news for next week.  The Nevada heat ridge piece passes north of us as a Rex Block closed low passes over us.  The TTidbits site is having comms issue, so e-wall version of GEFS (which has higher anomaly standards) pretty much keeps a western conus ridge/eastern noam trof combo going for most of its run.  Southwest heat ridge > Bermuda ridge off southeast coast. The flow looks more zonal toward the end of the run, but that's probably members canceling each other out. 

 

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31 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I spy another mini heatwave possible wed-fri

Hoping for a stronger ridge to keep the rain away on my days off. I'm drowning. 

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1 hour ago, Mitchg said:

Hoping for a stronger ridge to keep the rain away on my days off. I'm drowning. 

We all are outside of Tony

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15 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I spy another mini heatwave possible wed-fri

Dews in the low 70s won't help any.

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14 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

We all are outside of Tony

GEFs building SE ridge, might not be the last mini heat wave.  Although pattern looks drier (as in pcpn, who knows about dews).

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8/10 GEFS:

Good news for next week.  The Nevada heat ridge piece passes north of us as a Rex Block closed low passes over us.  The TTidbits site is having comms issue, so e-wall version of GEFS (which has higher anomaly standards) pretty much keeps a western conus ridge/eastern noam trof combo going for most of its run.  Southwest heat ridge > Bermuda ridge off southeast coast. The flow looks more zonal toward the end of the run, but that's probably members canceling each other out. 

8/13 GEFS:

The next week is now this week and while the closed low is saving the first part of this week, another run at 90s could start as soon as Wednesday before the next weakening trof arrives on Saturday.  From there next week to the end of the current 00z GEFs run (8/28) is dominated by a zonal conus flow with above normal heights over us and New England. The Bermuda ridge noses into the southeastern states and there is no heat ridge per se out west. If anything troffiness off the west coast. The GEFs is a bit more bullish about the Bermuda Ridge than the EPS or GEPS.  Regardless the outlook of this pattern is drier in terms of pcpn as the main trof (if there is one) position is over the Mississippi valley. We have to keep the westerlies over us to make a warm scenario from getting uglier.

06z GFS just testing out its cool season cold bias apparatus.  More to follow in the months ahead (that is until the next version replaces it).

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png.0d517e5a8414ae76869b8484d14dcc1b.png

 

 

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JCohen's blog had a chart which compared summer model forecasts to observations. Forecasting warm everywhere like NMME wasn't a bad forecast but missed the highs and lows. The european models (MMA) did a good job of identifying the cool areas but missed some warm areas, while AER did a good job of locating some of the hot spots like Scandinavia but missed the cool areas.

summerforecast.png

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On 8/15/2018 at 9:25 AM, Chubbs said:

JCohen's blog had a chart which compared summer model forecasts to observations. Forecasting warm everywhere like NMME wasn't a bad forecast but missed the highs and lows. The european models (MMA) did a good job of identifying the cool areas but missed some warm areas, while AER did a good job of locating some of the hot spots like Scandinavia but missed the cool areas.

summerforecast.png

They (AER) did a much better job with the Indian sub-continent too.

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8/13 GEFS:

The next week is now this week and while the closed low is saving the first part of this week, another run at 90s could start as soon as Wednesday before the next weakening trof arrives on Saturday.  From there next week to the end of the current 00z GEFs run (8/28) is dominated by a zonal conus flow with above normal heights over us and New England. The Bermuda ridge noses into the southeastern states and there is no heat ridge per se out west. If anything troffiness off the west coast. The GEFs is a bit more bullish about the Bermuda Ridge than the EPS or GEPS.  Regardless the outlook of this pattern is drier in terms of pcpn as the main trof (if there is one) position is over the Mississippi valley. We have to keep the westerlies over us to make a warm scenario from getting uglier.

 

8/18 GEFS:

Great Lakes centered trof starts the new week with below normal 500mb heights arriving on the 22nd for two whole days!  The retrograding Bermuda Ridge arrives on the 24th with above normal heights (Rockies heat ridge suppressed to AZ/NM) returning.  Pretty much the story for the rest of August, the ridge retrogrades and weakens a bit but sets up a home across the Southeast States and no pleasant end to August/start of September if this is close.  GEPS is similar.

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can add the eps in with the rest. Starts to look ugly after next weekend. 

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8/18 GEFS:

Great Lakes centered trof starts the new week with below normal 500mb heights arriving on the 22nd for two whole days!  The retrograding Bermuda Ridge arrives on the 24th with above normal heights (Rockies heat ridge suppressed to AZ/NM) returning.  Pretty much the story for the rest of August, the ridge retrogrades and weakens a bit but sets up a home across the Southeast States and no pleasant end to August/start of September if this is close.  GEPS is similar.

 

8/21 GEFS:

Well we go from below normal to above normal 500 mb heights in a day on August 24th and we never look back.  A weakening trof passes thru our area on the weekend and in its wake a heat ridge statrts cooking the Southern Plains and Texas.  That cooking eventually gets transported here next week as a western NOAM trof, eastern conus ridge becomes the norm for the rest of the month. Enjoy.  As September starts, the pattern is outlooked to retrograde.

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On 8/21/2018 at 7:33 AM, Rainshadow said:

8/18 GEFS:

Great Lakes centered trof starts the new week with below normal 500mb heights arriving on the 22nd for two whole days!  The retrograding Bermuda Ridge arrives on the 24th with above normal heights (Rockies heat ridge suppressed to AZ/NM) returning.  Pretty much the story for the rest of August, the ridge retrogrades and weakens a bit but sets up a home across the Southeast States and no pleasant end to August/start of September if this is close.  GEPS is similar.

 

8/21 GEFS:

Well we go from below normal to above normal 500 mb heights in a day on August 24th and we never look back.  A weakening trof passes thru our area on the weekend and in its wake a heat ridge statrts cooking the Southern Plains and Texas.  That cooking eventually gets transported here next week as a western NOAM trof, eastern conus ridge becomes the norm for the rest of the month. Enjoy.  As September starts, the pattern is outlooked to retrograde.

Since we are now within 7 days of September I am going to continue this PBP in the Met Autumn thread: 

 

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1 minute ago, Qtown Snow said:

I think it's time to put this to rest

 

Tap On Unpin Post_crop_506x334.png

As in shoot it in the head? That summer was absolutely miserable.

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On 8/6/2018 at 11:18 AM, Rainshadow said:

Creative accounting on my part for verification

June should have been -1.0F below current average, actual was -0.6F

July should have been +0.1F above current average, actual was +0.8F

August should be +0.5F (or 77.1F) above current average, actual was +2.4F

Pcpn part sadly worked. Like Feb, the last month of the season made a good summer outlook mediocre.

 

 

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