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Rainshadow

Meteorological Summer Pattern Discussion; First Post On Page 2, My Summer Analogs.

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Here are my summer analogs.  1975 is my favorite of the four, had a very similar April & May.  They all were either the second year of a la nina or coming off a moderate la nina with enso trending away from it.  I also included the averages from the beginning to end of the series to get a better climo perspective.  So from that I'd say a near current normal summer, which would be a breath of fresh air.  Pcpnwise, well there was Agnes in 1972 and something tropical I am guessing in August 1911, so take them with a grain of salt. 

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Back to back nice summers would be great 

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On 6/2/2018 at 10:21 AM, Rainshadow said:

Here are my summer analogs.  1975 is my favorite of the four, had a very similar April & May.  They all were either the second year of a la nina or coming off a moderate la nina with enso trending away from it.  I also included the averages from the beginning to end of the series to get a better climo perspective.  So from that I'd say a near current normal summer, which would be a breath of fresh air.  Pcpnwise, well there was Agnes in 1972 and something tropical I am guessing in August 1911, so take them with a grain of salt. 

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All those years line up nicely with low sun spot solar cycles. I am expecting this year to be wettest on record for our region. We will continue to have transitional season (spring/fall) type weather throughout the summer...... if you can even call it summer!?

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58 minutes ago, Laddm said:

All those years line up nicely with low sun spot solar cycles. I am expecting this year to be wettest on record for our region. We will continue to have transitional season (spring/fall) type weather throughout the summer...... if you can even call it summer!?

What I bolded in your quote is what I'm afraid of. 

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12 hours ago, Voyager said:

What I bolded in your quote is what I'm afraid of. 

Thats what I'm praying for

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8 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Thats what I'm praying for

Higher chances at KBGM. ;)

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On ‎6‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 10:21 AM, Rainshadow said:

Here are my summer analogs.  1975 is my favorite of the four, had a very similar April & May.  They all were either the second year of a la nina or coming off a moderate la nina with enso trending away from it.  I also included the averages from the beginning to end of the series to get a better climo perspective.  So from that I'd say a near current normal summer, which would be a breath of fresh air.  Pcpnwise, well there was Agnes in 1972 and something tropical I am guessing in August 1911, so take them with a grain of salt. 

The July average this decade is over 80 degrees, something in the 77-78 degree range would be greatly appreciated

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11 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Thats what I'm praying for

Without all this freakin' rain though. Its been brutal cutting:crazy:....Looks like the pattern is relaxing over the next 10 days. No heat in site!!

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12 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

The July average this decade is over 80 degrees, something in the 77-78 degree range would be greatly appreciated

Yes it would. It has been brutal when near normal would feel great.

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We will have to see if this look holds, but thats a 90+ signal look right there to me if that trough gets far enough off shore. Can see the southwest flow as the ridge rolls over top of us. 

eps_z500a_exnamer_33.png

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Still seeing that heat signal on eps. Though that trough/ cutnoff low look has gotten a little closer mucking things up a bit in the mean. Could see a scenario where New England or upper Great Lakes are warmer than the southeast of that closed low drops south. Heat ridge would fold over top of it 

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^ we take.... another fig crushing cold winter with abundant snow

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Not for nothing but the Bermuda high has not shown itself and with the means  in the midrange outlook the Euro and GFS have a positive PNA look. Not conducive for a heat wave.

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still looking like we could see 90s in that sunday-tuesday period at some point. As a piece of that heat ridge comes east before a front slides through

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23 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

^ we take.... another fig crushing cold winter with abundant snow

I don't have much confidence in guidance parsecting the type of el nino or la nina for that fact and the tendency in the spring for the guidance to go el nino happy (just like last winter was suppose to be).  But it is ironic that the guidance link within Charlie's post looks nothing like modoki.

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

still looking like we could see 90s in that sunday-tuesday period at some point. As a piece of that heat ridge comes east before a front slides through

The idea of the opposite crashed and chilled this week.  So FWIW the predicted teleconnections are not showing sustainability to the heat.  Then again normal would feel warm at this point.

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The ENSO modeling update for Mid June is holding its own for an el nino for next winter. The dynamical model peak has increased from +0.8C in April to +1.0C this month.  The four models that handled last winter the best (attached graph if you see otherwise) are all in nino territory except for the Aussie's. But if one corrects current conditions, even that model would bring weak el nino conditions.  My nino skepticism is waning.  Latest weekly 3.4 was up to +0.2C.

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As for the summer,  the teleconnections look warm for the last week of June, but so far either the outlooks have been wrong, or the heat has underperformed, so whichever reason, here is hoping for another underperformance:

4indices.png.7560c4e773f3e3cb5222271edb2ef2a2.png

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5 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

As for the summer,  the teleconnections look warm for the last week of June, but so far either the outlooks have been wrong, or the heat has underperformed, so whichever reason, here is hoping for another underperformance:

4indices.png.7560c4e773f3e3cb5222271edb2ef2a2.png

Could that be a by product of shorter wavelengths in summer? In winter time correlation with those indices would be warm. In summer though with shorter wave lengths better chance of of thingsnlooking different. For instance a -nao in winternusually means colder than normal. Though, I’m summer we have had heat waves with them 

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