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tombo82685

5/16 Another Run @ 90F This Time With Possibly Severe Storms

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Gotta watch out for Tuesday, could see slight or enhanced again. Assuming we get the warmth this go around strong instability, decent shear, and another good EML for hail and damaging winds threat Tuesday afternoon into evening. 

25A24D69-8323-47E7-9362-382B7E3211CF.png

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Gotta watch out for Tuesday, could see slight or enhanced again. Assuming we get the warmth this go around strong instability, decent shear, and another good EML for hail and damaging winds threat Tuesday afternoon into evening. 

25A24D69-8323-47E7-9362-382B7E3211CF.png

Solid EML in play here. 

 

 

1499DD4E-6DAA-410C-8B93-0C352424FB00.png

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7 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Gotta watch out for Tuesday, could see slight or enhanced again. Assuming we get the warmth this go around strong instability, decent shear, and another good EML for hail and damaging winds threat Tuesday afternoon into evening. 

25A24D69-8323-47E7-9362-382B7E3211CF.png

Tombo death knell 

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

Tombo death knell 

Lol, yesterday verified, just was a little further south than originally thought

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Off the nam, but that is a sickass EML being shown on it. If thats correct and we get the warming shown, this is a hail and damaging wind setup. nam_2018051318_051_40.04--75.45.png

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SPC day 3 already has us in marginal risk. I expect that to go go slight and probably enhanced again if these parameters are even close. 

PHI_swody3.png

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

SPC day 3 already has us in marginal risk. I expect that to go go slight and probably enhanced again if these parameters are even close. 

PHI_swody3.png

18 &0z show a really solid EML advecting in overhead. >8°C is impressive, even for the Great Plains standards. 

 

If anything isolated pops, and goes super cellular, could see some big hail reports. 

 

95B88770-C6DF-4D2E-9691-AFD8F2FAC771.png

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day2otlk_0600.gif.030bc07ddbbe26e61c0f6981da8f02c4.gif

 ...Upper Ohio Valley/northern Mid Atlantic Coast states...
   Ahead of the southward advancing cold front, models suggest that
   relatively steep lapse rates, associated with a remnant plume of
   elevated mixed layer air, may contribute to moderate CAPE on the
   order of 1000-2000+ J/kg with insolation by Tuesday afternoon. 
   Highest moisture content and greatest instability may become focused
   within lee surface troughing across northern Virginia and central
   Maryland.  This destabilization, coupled with favorable vertical
   shear beneath 30-50 kt mid-level flow on the southern fringe of the
   strong westerlies, may contribute to an environment conducive to
   organized thunderstorm development accompanied by a risk for severe
   hail and wind.  It appears that this may be aided by an area of
   forcing for ascent associated with a low-amplitude short wave
   impulse which is forecast to migrate across and east of the
   Alleghenies Tuesday afternoon.  Convection may evolve into a
   consolidating thunderstorm cluster before developing southeastward
   into the stronger instability through early Tuesday evening.

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Looks like predicted bulk shear better north of PHL, but this is the SREF prob of >2000J ML Cape, matches slight risk area pretty well.

SREF_prob_mlcape_2000__f036.gif.412378952e1e81239222d2ecee57fb5f.gif

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13 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Lol, yesterday verified, just was a little further south than originally thought

Given how crappy the air mass was on Saturday morning and where SPC STP guidance was, that south/southwest dip not surprising.  We look like we are in better sector shape this go round.

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2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Given how crappy the air mass was on Saturday morning and where SPC STP guidance was, that south/southwest dip not surprising.  We look like we are in better sector shape this go round.

Yea, the instability numbers look solid. Combine that with good mid level lapse rates, hail and damaging winds will be an issue. Wouldn't surprise me if this gets bumped up to enhanced. Pretty good setup around here whenever you have a robust EML which is being shown.

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Thats a pretty sick sounding off the NAM for these parts. Thats some solid shear too. The EHI is pretty darn high too. Could see some supercells out ahead of main line tomorrow. nam_2018051406_039_40.04--75.32.png

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42 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Thats a pretty sick sounding off the NAM for these parts. Thats some solid shear too. The EHI is pretty darn high too. Could see some supercells out ahead of main line tomorrow. nam_2018051406_039_40.04--75.32.png

I'd say so. 

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh32-40.gif

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Thats a pretty sick sounding off the NAM for these parts. Thats some solid shear too. The EHI is pretty darn high too. Could see some supercells out ahead of main line tomorrow. nam_2018051406_039_40.04--75.32.png

One can put a man on the moon, but we still can't get a legit predicted dew point.  Threat looks legit, just wish it can be put into proper perspective as this is "enhanced" beyond reality. Anyway a DCAPE of 1000J with a bogusly high dew point is nothing to sneeze at either as that value would be only higher unless the eml is wrong.  Have to see if KY convection today overturns the air mass. Shear is predicted to be better north of PHL and better cape down this way.  Legit true first shot at severe this season.

 

SREF_CB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f036.gif

SREF_prob_H7_to_H5_LapseRate_7__f033.gif

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They have an enhanced risk down in DC today

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slight risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow

DdKcH-IX0AAOkZf.jpg:large

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HRRR trying to develop a MCS to hit southern PA then down possibly into DE

hrrr_ref_pennsylvania_8.png

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27 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

HRRR trying to develop a MCS to hit southern PA then down possibly into DE

hrrr_ref_pennsylvania_8.png

Possible Derecho? 

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27 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

HRRR trying to develop a MCS to hit southern PA then down possibly into DE

hrrr_ref_pennsylvania_8.png

Just saw that. Think that we only see elevated convection. The sounding was lacking cape (300j). This is for tonight* that MCS/ possible Derecho should drop SE towards Baltimore/southern DE. 

Maybe garden variety light show overnight? 3k NAM shows that look as well. 

 

 

 

656C03A7-56CA-43F3-AEE5-B1F2BC61321E.png

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2 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Possible Derecho? 

Yea, it’s reflected in the SPC outlook. Big wind proba of 45%, with a chance of a mod risk. 

This threat should remain SE of the metro region, closer to Baltimore/SDE and points south. Our chnce is tomorrow.

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28 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Yea, it’s reflected in the SPC outlook. Big wind proba of 45%, with a chance of a mod risk. 

This threat should remain SE of the metro region, closer to Baltimore/SDE and points south. Our chnce is tomorrow.

Yeah the real heat and humidity today is southwest of DC.  This should make more of a hard turn to the right than the models have.

Untitled.png.990b233e3833caeea0b1b6ac6f8782e4.png

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These ladies and gentlemen are pretty good with these outlooks.  We used to use them as a consistency/collaboration check for timing of thunderstorms in the tafs.

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Capture.JPGxxxxsa.JPG.2cc4f1a7f3d73162fcacc106616e20a2.JPG

Capture.JPGz.JPG.955963f5f113973ded056d761bd43a5a.JPG

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Today looking more interesting here. We've already had a couple of strong storms from elevated instability this week.

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