Jump to content

Sign in to follow this  
tombo82685

Another taste of the 90s, and you will like it.

Recommended Posts

Sunday is gaining some traction for another possible 90+ day. A storm system ejecting out of the west will push a ridge into the east with another Bermuda type high with southwest flow. This airmass, though it looks brief, a day or two looks to be warmer interms of 850s. I believe last 90 shot had 850s around 15c, while this one as of now looks like 17/18c which would easily get low 90s if we remain sunny. 

ecmwf_t2max_philadelphia_29.png

ecmwf_t850_philadelphia_29.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If this pattern of short, occasional thrusts into the 90s continues through the summer, I'd be okay with a predominant pattern of mild with middling dewpoints.  Be nice to get some steady rain on occasion though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Sunday is gaining some traction for another possible 90+ day. A storm system ejecting out of the west will push a ridge into the east with another Bermuda type high with southwest flow. This airmass, though it looks brief, a day or two looks to be warmer interms of 850s. I believe last 90 shot had 850s around 15c, while this one as of now looks like 17/18c which would easily get low 90s if we remain sunny. 

ecmwf_t2max_philadelphia_29.png

ecmwf_t850_philadelphia_29.png

Yup we had lower 850s with the last 90F.  On the plus side the trees are leafing.  On the negative side, unless something above and beyond happens Thursday/Friday with dissipating front it will be even drier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just stop salivating over it, Tom.  You sound like you were looking at:

baskin-robbins-warm-cookie-sundae.jpg.a7d7457d4ed6dbabf0486542ac4e4176.jpg

 

Wow, might even make the mid 90s with those thermals.  Ouch.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

euro this run popping 18-19c 850s, yet only gets a raw 2m temp of 89. Yea I'll take the over on that. Then you have the gfs which keeps that front south of us with some rain chances on Sunday with highs in the 75-80 range

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro went the gfs route overnight with some rain and storms sunday afternoon, no 90s this run. EPS also backed temps down on their 2m raw, and increased rain chances. If that front can come in, could be good shot of rain/storms. If that front stays north get ready for the 90s

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

went the gfs route overnight with some rain and storms sunday afternoon, no 90s this run. EPS also backed temps down on their 2m raw, and increased rain chances. If that front can come in, could be good shot of rain/storms. If that front stays north get ready for the 90s

You could always root for the ICON for Mother's Day:    (I think the Ukie would be close to this also).

icon_T2m_neus_48.png.0974d11554da5c90bd77941975720ffe.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

You could always root for the ICON for Mother's Day:    (I think the Ukie would be close to this also).

icon_T2m_neus_48.png.0974d11554da5c90bd77941975720ffe.png

Mmmm what a thing of beauty that would be

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Mmmm what a thing of beauty that would be

Would make for a very interesting drive along the NJ Turnpike that day.....

Thursday's tstms:  I don't consider it a possible outcome until GFS MOS starts churning likely or higher pops.  I still haven't dried out from the 30 hours of consecutive measurable rain the GFS promised me for last weekend. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Would make for a very interesting drive along the NJ Turnpike that day.....

Thursday's tstms:  I don't consider it a possible outcome until GFS MOS starts churning likely or higher pops.  I still haven't dried out from the 30 hours of consecutive measurable rain the GFS promised me for last weekend. 

Yup, I snagged a whole .25" out of that 30 hours...   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another run of the euro and eps where the heat stays south of the region, though look like some rain instore on Sunday if correct. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunday has continued to trend wetter for Mother's day on euro and eps. Though, now Saturday h as a decent shot of 90 or so now. 850s def would support it on the euro.  GFS is about the same too but looks a little faster with the front. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Sunday has continued to trend wetter for Mother's day on euro and eps. Though, now Saturday h as a decent shot of 90 or so now. 850s def would support it on the euro.  GFS is about the same too but looks a little faster with the front. 

Slight change on the ICON from yesterday for Mother's Day.

 

icon_T2m_neus_40.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Too early to nail down the timing of any rain for the weekend?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Too early to nail down the timing of any rain for the weekend?

Other than it won't rain 36 out of 51 hours between 2 am Saturday and 5 am Monday as the G(W)FS has. It depends upon the progression of the frontal boundary. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Other than it won't rain 36 out of 51 hours between 2 am Saturday and 5 am Monday as the G(W)FS has. It depends upon the progression of the frontal boundary. 

So it IS too early to nail it down.  

Yeah, seeing lots of variations amongst the models. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, cbelke said:

So it IS too early to nail it down.  

Yeah, seeing lots of variations amongst the models. 

Yeah it matters where the front stalls.  I suppose there is the ubiquitous chance with the cfp on (it may reach 90F) Saturday and then it depends on where the front stalls as to how wet Sunday is.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The eps have about .55 on the mean right now qpf, with 2m temp of 68 on Sunday, we take. Saturday 2M temp is 83, which will probably be in reality 87ish

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunday on the op EC went the other quick for you all, looks like the 90 threat went to 50 and rain. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mitchg said:

Sunday on the op EC went the other quick for you all, looks like the 90 threat went to 50 and rain. 

Yea Sunday went down but Saturday could do 85-90

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro still showing 85-90 for Saturday. Sunday looks cool with some early and late in the day rain 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/8/2018 at 7:46 AM, Rainshadow said:

You could always root for the ICON for Mother's Day:    (I think the Ukie would be close to this also).

icon_T2m_neus_48.png.0974d11554da5c90bd77941975720ffe.png

I would root for the ICON all summer. It's been quite a while since I've seen a wall to wall hot summer. It seems like when I was a young man we'd have 2-3 week warm/hot stretches punctuated by brief cooler weather, and now lately it seems to be just the opposite...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Voyager said:

I would root for the ICON all summer. It's been quite a while since I've seen a wall to wall hot summer. It seems like when I was a young man we'd have 2-3 week warm/hot stretches punctuated by brief cooler weather, and now lately it seems to be just the opposite...

It did seem that there were longer lasting hot spells in the past than we have had recently.  But the summers overall are trending warmer, so not sure if that is more of a minimum temperature contribution because of higher dew points or the cooler spells are not as cool as they once were.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

It did seem that there were longer lasting hot spells in the past than we have had recently.  But the summers overall are trending warmer, so not sure if that is more of a minimum temperature contribution because of higher dew points or the cooler spells are not as cool as they once were.

 

I don't know, but I seem to remember as a teenager, we'd get low to mid 90's true heat waves, that (at least to me) seemed to last a week of more. Perhaps it's because back then I lived in Bethlehem and it was a bit warmer than Tamaqua, but since I moved back from Arizona, it seems as if we can only muster one or two days over 90 before it cools off. Also the swings seem greater (low 90's to mid 70's as opposed to low/mid 90's to low 80's).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×