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Rainshadow

FV3 Future GFS Implementation Date Still On Or About January 24, 2019

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2 minutes ago, cbelke said:

I have .04" so far this morning. That make you feel better? ;)

 

When you post on Tuesday that it hasn't stopped raining since early Sunday morning, maybe. :dancing-smiley04:

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

I am so tired of the current GFS constantly forecasting measurable pcpn (63 straight hours on the 00z/23rd, just to best the 57 straight hours on the 22nd/18th), I will take the occasional more extreme solutions of the next version.  Beside, it will make for a more "interesting" 100 degree thread next summer.

Well that didn't take long.....

 

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On 9/23/2018 at 7:03 AM, Rainshadow said:

I am so tired of the current GFS constantly forecasting measurable pcpn (63 straight hours on the 00z/23rd, just to best the 57 straight hours on the 22nd/18th), I will take the occasional more extreme solutions of the next version.  Beside, it will make for a more "interesting" 100 degree thread next summer.

Even using three hour segments, it was 7 straight three hour segments (21) before it stopped raining at PHL, less if one goes by hours.  If the GFS was an LP (33 1/3 RPM), then maybe it'd be good with pcpn duration.

Meanwhile here are the highlights from this current GFS version trying to predict more than 24 hours of consecutive measurable rain for this year:

 

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On 9/23/2018 at 7:03 AM, Rainshadow said:

I am so tired of the current GFS constantly forecasting measurable pcpn (63 straight hours on the 00z/23rd, just to best the 57 straight hours on the 22nd/18th), I will take the occasional more extreme solutions of the next version.  Beside, it will make for a more "interesting" 100 degree thread next summer.

730 am - 9 am PHL .02" on the 24th (thru 9 pm on the 24th rest no measurable). 

 

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BTW I am pretty the next version is going to have a cold, progressive bias even from what I have seen so far, but I will take it over forecasting 90s in November.

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12 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Kick the can a day:

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Glad they are in agreement...    NOT!!!

 

 

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3 minutes ago, cbelke said:

 

 

Glad they are in agreement...    NOT!!!

 

 

On the plus side Tom Petty (RIP  :(  ), plays a mean electric guitar without it even being plugged in.  :happy-smiley01:

 

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There will be much la la land ❤️ this winter with this model.  A double landfalling hurricane.

 

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On 9/24/2018 at 7:33 AM, Rainshadow said:

Even using three hour segments, it was 7 straight three hour segments (21) before it stopped raining at PHL, less if one goes by hours.  If the GFS was an LP (33 1/3 RPM), then maybe it'd be good with pcpn duration.

Meanwhile here are the highlights from this current GFS version trying to predict more than 24 hours of consecutive measurable rain for this year:

 

OMG that video is so darn funny!

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On 10/24/2018 at 2:58 PM, cbelke said:

Nice write-up. Bottom-line: expect small improvements with this update, but the upgrade to the model core which will improve computing efficiency should lead to bigger improvements down the road.

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24 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Nice write-up. Bottom-line: expect small improvements with this update, but the upgrade to the model core which will improve computing efficiency should lead to bigger improvements down the road.

The improvements at 500mb have been nice so far.  The 00z run has been beating the Euro at Day 8 & 10 the last month.

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Didn't want to clog the pattern thread, but once again, OP GFS looks like the or second coldest of the bunch.  Congrats. New version not much warmer.

 

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Well now that the atmosphere is not "progressing" as freely, the new GFS skill scores are dropping toward the old GFS skill scores

 

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I went through the last slide show before the decision to implement the FV3GFS was made.  I chose some slides mainly about continuing or worse concerns. 

 

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