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Rainshadow

FV3 Future GFS Implementation Date Still On Or About January 24, 2019

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A couple of comparison maps from night run.  If anyone has other links or info, please post.

fv3p_apcpn_us_62.png.4307bfb7089c22c4c1fa12ce99cf41a2.png

gfs_apcpn_us_51.png.cad48a11dda01895306079492027371c.png

fv3p_asnow_us_41.png.33135fff6b664f25444be8af9a700d02.png

 

gfs_asnow_us_35.png.571c91702b043abe17abed60ab0a1518.png

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oo yay, I can only imagine what this new version will be like. 

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23 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

oo yay, I can only imagine what this new version will be like. 

Conus-wide It does not look drier.

 

fv3p_apcpn_us_40.png

gfs_apcpn_us_40.png

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

210 consecutive forecast period hours with measurable rain. 

 

Lol was that the 18z run from yesterday? That one was over 200hrs too. I was gonna ask if you like that forecast?

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52 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Lol was that the 18z run from yesterday? That one was over 200hrs too. I was gonna ask if you like that forecast?

That was the 06z run.  It wont be the last one either.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Lol was that the 18z run from yesterday? That one was over 200hrs too. I was gonna ask if you like that forecast?

12z run down to only 162 hours....

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On 4/26/2018 at 9:57 AM, tombo82685 said:

oo yay, I can only imagine what this new version will be like. 

Snow on Memorial Day weekend after a double landfalling hurricane.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png.51e1310e996fc2ad5108e277bcab2869.png

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15 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Worth noting 

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Yeah the big upgrade is scheduled for 2020.  They are ditching the spectral model core for the FV3 core with this one.  By the way implementation date tentatively 12/11/18 just in time for winter. 

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We won't be missing gems like this.  I get the track accuracy superceding intensity fcsts, but one would think without perturbing the sea surface (and upwelling), one still couldn't get a tropical system this intense in May even in la la land forecast times.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_54.png.b73b932814a9996f43cfa33e2ab38ab7.png

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35 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

We won't be missing gems like this.  I get the track accuracy superceding intensity fcsts, but one would think without perturbing the sea surface (and upwelling), one still couldn't get a tropical system this intense in May even in la la land forecast times.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_54.png.b73b932814a9996f43cfa33e2ab38ab7.png

Looks like a PRE 

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like a PRE 

Well only 6 more months to go....

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This is more inaccurate than the current version of the GFS for today (7/1):  95 Actual High

fv3p_T2m_neus_3.png.c8299434f96c85721e06078fd9869cea.png

 

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The new GFS is going to win this 2pm contest today, it didn't turn my head during the heat wave (see above), but today's temp forecast by the GFS is yet another :facepalm:

It must really stink to live in the higher terrain of northwest Dutchess County New York.

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fv3p_T2m_neus_4.png

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10 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

The new GFS is going to win this 2pm contest today, it didn't turn my head during the heat wave (see above), but today's temp forecast by the GFS is yet another :facepalm:

It must really stink to live in the higher terrain of northwest Dutchess County New York.

gfs_T2m_neus_4.png.d18f40cf448fe1116ba7a2459dcdfcb9.png

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fv3p_T2m_neus_4.png

85F at 2 pm with a NE wind at 6 knots, 88F for a high.

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I guess one can say the next version of the GFS will be an "improvement".   Nothing like 20C + 850mb 15z temp for a max temp to break more laws of thermodynamics not to mention oh it raining 30 of the previous 36 hours will leave antecedent soil conditions, um very very dry.  Wind, what wind?

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gfs_T2m_neus_10.png.0fa48c5ee10b603c592e9fb7e7316f5f.pngfv3p_T2m_neus_10.png.250b52556e1521d790d52a1cb2af690d.png

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Was reading some evaluation notes this morning and is sometimes even (too much) more progressive than current GFS, but is scoring better with tropical systems.  

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I am so tired of the current GFS constantly forecasting measurable pcpn (63 straight hours on the 00z/23rd, just to best the 57 straight hours on the 22nd/18th), I will take the occasional more extreme solutions of the next version.  Beside, it will make for a more "interesting" 100 degree thread next summer.

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I am so tired of the current GFS constantly forecasting measurable pcpn (63 straight hours on the 00z/23rd, just to best the 57 straight hours on the 22nd/18th), I will take the occasional more extreme solutions of the next version.  Beside, it will make for a more "interesting" 100 degree thread next summer.

I have .04" so far this morning. That make you feel better? ;)

 

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