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Chubbs

The Vernal Equinox Coastal Storm

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13 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

nice little bump on euro. Looks like gfs qpf wise, but a little south. DC through de and south jersey get hit good with 3-6"

Pretty good 12z suite (and Villanova win). Potential is there if we can hold the blocking.

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Just now, Chubbs said:

Pretty good 12z suite. Potential is there if we can hold the blocking.

Yep, but you really need to get into solid rates due to timing. Basically .5 qpf would equal like an inch or two of snow due to that. 

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Yep, but you really need to get into solid rates due to timing. Basically .5 qpf would equal like an inch or two of snow due to that. 

Best case it comes in hard and fast before daybreak.

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3 hours ago, Chubbs said:

A little suppression 3-4 days out can be a good sign for a mid-atlantic snow.

Absolutely, you all are in a really good spot at this point. Need buffer for the northward  correction. 

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1 minute ago, Mitchg said:

Absolutely, you all are in a really good spot at this point. Need buffer for the northward  correction. 

Just need to fix the timing honestly. If we can get bulk of qpf before 12z that would be great

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Big jump nw on eps for wave 1 and 2. Mean for both of them at phl was around .3, this run now at .6

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Hey Tom, I keep getting this message popping up that says something about being an Amazon.com winner; any idea what’s up with that? It looks like spam

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11 minutes ago, SouthJerseyJeff said:

Hey Tom, I keep getting this message popping up that says something about being an Amazon.com winner; any idea what’s up with that? It looks like spam

Yea, I was getting it a lot too. There is a way to fix it on your phone. Just go into google and type in amazon ad pop up on iphone. It gives steps to get rid of it. Think it's a spam bug on the phone because I have inquired about it to ip board and they couldn't find an issue outside that it might be the ads we have on here. It only does it though through phone. 

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26 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea, I was getting it a lot too. There is a way to fix it on your phone. Just go into google and type in amazon ad pop up on iphone. It gives steps to get rid of it. Think it's a spam bug on the phone because I have inquired about it to ip board and they couldn't find an issue outside that it might be the ads we have on here. It only does it though through phone. 

I appreciate the feedback.  I will try doing that on my phone.  Sorry about the OT comment.

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10 minutes ago, Baseball0618 said:

NAM still namming 

been shifting south every run today. Should start to come back to reality once inside 36hrs of this. 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

been shifting south every run today. Should start to come back to reality once inside 36hrs of this. 

Yep.  I’m really apathetic at this point.  20 hours of light snow to maybe score 2 or 3 on grassy surfaces just doesn’t get the juices flowing for me. 

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8 minutes ago, Baseball0618 said:

Yep.  I’m really apathetic at this point.  20 hours of light snow to maybe score 2 or 3 on grassy surfaces just doesn’t get the juices flowing for me. 

Ok well then hopefully this trends further north so that you get rain and it snows here. 

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17 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Ok well then hopefully this trends further north so that you get rain and it snows here. 

Works for me.  

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1 minute ago, susqushawn said:

0z NAM is approved, don't care if it's a bit south, it's a HAWT look at h5

yup,  stronger with the round 2 wave. Interesting to see what the globals have to say tonight. Increasing # of GEFS with nice round 2 storms in the past couple of cycles.

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Better ridge, 1st wave a bit north, 2nd wave just has me jazzed up a bit more,  and once Euro NAMs us by 12z tomorrow, Ill be full weenie mode...caveat being it's St Paddys Day and I'm Irish

nam3km_z500_vort_us_fh54_trend.gif

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Tony mentioned it earlier but I think the gfs or euro ensembles were indicating that the weaker wave 1 was, surprisingly, the stronger wave 2 ends up being. I really dont have much hope with wave 2. IMO areas in VA have a much better chance with that part of the event. I still think wave 1 is our best shot, but Im concerned on precip timing & intensity. I actually think sleet could be a factor as well. Personally Id rather have sleet than white rain. Now if somehow the 00z suite goes all bonkers with 500mb Ill be the first to start the bus with round 2

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