Jump to content

*** PLEASE REGISTER AND JOIN OUR DISCUSSION!!! ***

THE STAFF WANT YOU TO JOIN US AT PHILLYWX!!!

Register as a member today, and become part of the Delaware Valley weather community!

Our pro and seasoned amateur meteorologists, and weather enthusiasts from around the PA and NJ area together form a great group discussion, and we're asking folks that read our site today to register as members and post along with us!

Don't be intimidated if you're not an expert, ask questions if you're curious or want to build your knowledge!

Whether it's adding to our local profiles by reporting observations (and maybe becoming a SkyWarn Spotter!), or contributing more on the model interpretation side, we'd like you to join us in a constructive and insightful dialogue around all things Philly Weather!


susqushawn

March 6th-7th Miller B, Let's Do It Again....

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

What, with me as admin you'd have a problem with 30 different thunderstorm threads each day? :unsure2: I thought it was really 18", or maybe Tom took a third off. I have to go check that map in the other thread.

Didn’t realize you were the Nick Foles of this place!  It’d be in good hands then.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

2 inches of qpf and shows 8 to 10 in philly at 10:1. Not as good as I had hoped on that kind of map

Just let it happen man.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eastern Lancaster County/MQS still hanging on to the SW end of the good stuff.  We'll see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Much colder gfs run too now. 925 and 850s below. Reason why snow maps will looks like poo is because of the garbage low levels, thats all snow folks from 295 on nw

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Much colder gfs run too now. 925 and 850s below. Reason why snow maps will looks like poo is because of the garbage low levels, thats all snow folks from 295 on nw

Here’s what Tom means btw: 

 

5258F90D-036D-4713-8C5E-B84260C96854.png.8b7c00283eb0377d4e593f537db91cfd.png

 

notice the dews (green) and temp (red) split at the bottom of this graph. That’s the boundary layer. This is during my qpf,  and it’s showing a dry boundary layer. THat is simply incorrect physics on the models behalf. Thts why the temp profiles are bogus in the GFS. It’s embarrassing. 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Much colder gfs run too now. 925 and 850s below. Reason why snow maps will looks like poo is because of the garbage low levels, thats all snow folks from 295 on nw

How far out would the bogus low level stuff affect their snow maps?  I see they still have 9 at MQS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

How far out would the bogus low level stuff affect their snow maps?  I see they still have 9 at MQS

If it's showing snow it's legit snow. In this storm, if your 850s and 925s are below 0 and you're precipitating decently you're snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to add to the GFS is how it keeps the low over South Jersey, which is also bad. I think the low will be more offshore.  So, if that is the case, hence bring the heavy snow a bit east.  The Verticals are really off the charts based on the NAM.  Plus this time of year, you need the real intense snowfall to get those amounts to verify. Which probably has been discussed here already.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/5/2018 at 7:03 PM, snowlurker said:

Wow Tom, more bold than I was expecting. I have to admit, though, that I don't know how to square above the indicated above-zero surface temps and the March sun angle with the idea of very heavy precip. I suppose you've looked at 925s and 850s in making your map.

Really really shocked NWS Philly has not put Northern Delaware and adjacent NJ River counties on WSW .... with all the data incoming on Short Range and Globals and 1 inch of snow already on ground with 1-4 predicted overnight before storm even gets cranking 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WeatherQ said:

Really really shocked NWS Philly has not put Northern Delaware and adjacent NJ River counties on WSW .... with all the data incoming on Short Range and Globals and 1 inch of snow already on ground with 1-4 predicted overnight before storm even gets cranking 

Its coming

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Absolutely.  I would expect a significant shift in snowfall totals too, highest along the I-95 corridor.  Nice event for everyone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

 

It wasn't really much of a shift west from the 00z run near ACY.   Sorry Mitch I misread your post first as the 06z run jerking west, not the track being too west.  But anyway, hi!

index.gif.9eb03847aca677aa95b29854b4b3befd.gif

 

 

For BGM the NAM went from 12(18Z 6th) to 2 (06Z 7th)the last two runs, but the models are getting better :facepalm::facepalm::facepalm:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

my updated map since everything has trended colder and shifted a little east

Untitled3.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I never checked this before now, but if PHL does get to 10" (or more) today, it is still within the GLAAM range (-1.0 or greater) where these have occurred in the past.

gfsgwo_1.png.d825aeccfdb26959fcfe4c0f4c7d54ad.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

00z NWS/model run snowfall maps.  If the WRF-NMM pulls this off again, I think I will never say another bad word about a member of the NMM family.

Capture.JPG.97fbfc685489e6234afc079f0aef7394.JPG

gem_asnow_neus_6.png

gfs_asnow_neus_7.png

hrdps_asnow_neus_36.png

icon_asnow_neus_13.png

nam3km_asnow_neus_28.png

namconus_asnow_neus_10.png

rgem_asnow_neus_36.png

StormTotalSnowWeb1.png

wrf-arw_asnow_neus_36.png

wrf-arw2_asnow_neus_36.png

wrf-nmm_asnow_neus_36.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...