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Rainshadow

Meteorological Spring Pattern Discussion. Frapril Follows Smarch?

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I realize that this outlooked pattern change is crossing over seasons, if you are talking about something in March and March alone, please start using this thread.

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9 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

The first week of March on the CFS2 now vs a week ago

 

 

Stronger with the -nao, but also stronger with the -pna

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16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Stronger with the -nao, but also stronger with the -pna

Still doubt you would get a cutter with that block in place 

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7 minutes ago, Feb said:

Still doubt you would get a cutter with that block in place 

Not saying you would, more implying that the temps wouldn't be terribly cold. 

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It's been a while since we have had this robust of a -nao signal this time of year, so not to familiar with how temps would go. Looking at that map at face value It doesn't get me to excited when I see a straight zonal flow. 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

It's been a while since we have had this robust of a -nao signal this time of year, so not to familiar with how temps would go. Looking at that map at face value It doesn't get me to excited when I see a straight zonal flow. 

Like I mentioned last night, it looks like the pattern where when it's precipitating it can have a some solid - departures and offer wintry appeal. Outside of that during sunny days it looks close to normal

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42 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Like I mentioned last night, it looks like the pattern where when it's precipitating it can have a some solid - departures and offer wintry appeal. Outside of that during sunny days it looks close to normal

It's too bad the negative departures didn't start showing up sooner and going away sooner. Come the first week of March, batting practice will be hell on the hands during very chilly weather.

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Stronger with the -nao, but also stronger with the -pna

Candidate for a swfe I would think.  Just need to time it right with a cold shot

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7 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Like I mentioned last night, it looks like the pattern where when it's precipitating it can have a some solid - departures and offer wintry appeal. Outside of that during sunny days it looks close to normal

In March it can easily snow the day after the high reaches 50F; that temp is not the death knell it would be in either Dec or Jan.

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4 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

:bye:

Not funny. ;)

 

 

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I dunno, the blocky period showing up late in feb into march looks rather meh to me. Yea it's very blocky in Canada but the flow for cold air is garbage. Almost looks like the block hooks up with the se ridge to a degree. Obviously the WEKS, well go WEFS with it and the cold air. GEPS and eps are very close together on rather MEH look 

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Unless Tom ( isotherm ) can paint a brighter picture, this looks like ......

IMG_0607.JPG

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26 minutes ago, Feb said:

Unless Tom ( isotherm ) can paint a brighter picture, this looks like ......

IMG_0607.JPG

I’m taking below normal regime. You can still get a winter storm. Like Tony said, in March it’s common to go from 50 one day to snow the next. Plus, this is still outside 10 days, not really in lock down territory per say. 

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JMA weeklies turn around weeks 3 and 4 retrograding the pattern and getting rid of the SE ridge. 

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52 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I’m taking below normal regime. You can still get a winter storm. Like Tony said, in March it’s common to go from 50 one day to snow the next. Plus, this is still outside 10 days, not really in lock down territory per say. 

Oh got ya. With the blocking anything is possible. Even I would take a cut off type march 1958 type deal 

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31 minutes ago, Feb said:

Oh got ya. With the blocking anything is possible. Even I would take a cut off type march 1958 type deal 

Exactly, the block is still there so something can easily sneak under it. Would prefer the WEFS as it would give a better chance over the eps

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In March it can easily snow the day after the high reaches 50F; that temp is not the death knell it would be in either Dec or Jan.



Why is March any different in that regard, couldn't the same fluctuation happen just as easily in Jan/Feb?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Yea but that’s also going off the wefs which I’m not sure is right. We will see

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea but that’s also going off the wefs which I’m not sure is right. We will see

I am not sure it is right either. At minimum, looks like there will be a better chance of a slow moving storm due to the blocked Atlantic flow.

ecmwf_eps_nao_2018021512.png

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1 minute ago, Chubbs said:

I am not sure it is right either. At minimum, looks like there will be a better chance of a slow moving storm due to the blocked Atlantic flow.

ecmwf_eps_nao_2018021512.png

A blend between the two would probably work too

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