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Rainshadow

Before The Torchy Week, Send In The Snow On President's Day Weekend

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Well we got to Laddm's 20 page criteria, so it must have been a decent snow.  Anyway, I went back and looked at 72hr model progs for 7 am Sunday morning, vs the actual low position. The models fell into two camps, the Euro/NAM/ICON (near perfect spot by the ICON) ramped up the low pretty well, maybe slightly too much and then the GFS/GEM well, you know.  But the secondary max "north and west" was assisted by the jet.  Depicted was the predicted location of the 250mb jet by the 18z/14th GFS.  This was the run that gave Philly .01" w/e.  The jet location (especially farther out in time) is a better indication of what could potentially happen than the surface prediction.

namussfc2018021812.gif.f6d006d1b30a0579b0ba632753f4f7d3.gif

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png.14f53f21d4bd0a64fc491f8d5c910778.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png.1fa706dcf3b5869b52ae9c02bb2f18be.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png.e25ea065f80893f425261bbd20501835.png

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png.6656d4786db7cbf0d2fbc5a260f6e3d0.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_4.png.eafc2f384b4670f4410609351addf448.png

gfs_uv250_us_14.png.44e21a73f9d602cced858f3815390ca2.png

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It was close!!!..... for me its the 20 pg plow rule. Possibly a better record then any model/algorithm  for my area. Im looking forward to the '62ish blocking pattern idea. Timing is key cold air will be there given all the snow cover over the country and canada. My b-day march 14 would be traditional and looks do'able. 
                                               

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