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Rainshadow

Before The Torchy Week, Send In The Snow On President's Day Weekend

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Well the models pretty much agree that precipitation is going to fall on President's Day Weekend in the Mount Holly CWA.  Why not, it wouldn't be a weekend without precip.  From there they are all over the place as to where and what type of precip will fall.  BTW I will not make another verbal post until May 1st if it snows at a 552 thickness as the Canadian is showing on TTidbits.   Ukmet looks warmest and wettest, gfs & euro coldest and snowiest. GGEM has to go back to ptype school. Icon looks like a model compromise.

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif.b12a32de6a7bd0bb0f6f6a3590cc5144.gif

 

 

Capture.JPG

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_20.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_20.png

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_38.png

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Mitch, I think you posted before about this potential.  Regardless of outcome, nice catch at seeing there was a chance.

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I expect this now to fall apart as a thread has been made, kiss of death

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I'm worried this was not suppressed enough in the extended period. Already looks like mixing issues with it as the QPF is trending north. EPS continue to improve though with a 1.5 mean now. 

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5 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I expect this now to fall apart as a thread has been made, kiss of death

Well at least Jrodd didn't start it.  ;)

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1 minute ago, Feb said:

12z ggem

gfs is partly cloudy, ukie somewhere between gem and gfs

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Well atleast we lost the warmer solutions for now. The high position is pretty solid in my eyes

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6 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

gfs is partly cloudy, ukie somewhere between gem and gfs

Ukie looks pretty close to the gfs

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4 minutes ago, Seanvolz98 said:

Pretty wild if we go 60s, snow, 60s

Timing ftw

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German model looks like the ggem, just less snow but no changeover like it had at 6z

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Ukie looks pretty close to the gfs

Better timing  than gfs with high on the east coast at 96 instead of midwest, so I could see an inch or two near DC, just a guess.

ukie21312.gif

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GEFS are still pretty amped up despite the op run, mean ticked up on snowfall too

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39 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

GEFS are still pretty amped up despite the op run, mean ticked up on snowfall too

Little bit of everything in here from whiffs, to all snow, all rain and snow to rain looks. Def more precipitous members than earlier runs. 

7E69F309-D025-45EE-A0FF-356393BFB1AA.png

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54 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

GEFS are still pretty amped up despite the op run, mean ticked up on snowfall too

 I do like my sun rising in the east. 

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Euro looks like the ggem. It certainly doesn't look the GFS 

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9 minutes ago, november2003 said:

Wake me up when the GFS shows this.

image.png.3b91bcc8689dcf06d1cde6a4ef701a76.png

That was quite the I95 corridor hit.

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Getting that heavy precip rate helps keep it snow. Tony's favorite dynamical cooling. 

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