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February 7th Mixed Pcpn Event Potential (AKA Not A Good Day To Have A Parade)

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56 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Very similar storm to super bowl upcoming with a touch more cold air.  Id have to think all things considered this will be more slick nw of the fall line with latitude or elevation.  Nature's way of pruning.  Fortunately the high doesn't stay entrenched but damage potentially done...we'll see

Yup, NAM, GFS already icy for parts of EPA and models were too warm at surface on Sunday.

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7 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Yup, NAM, GFS already icy for parts of EPA and models were too warm at surface on Sunday.

The low track this storm though isn't as favorable. That had a coastal low which had a little bit of a northeast component. This low track looks to be right over philly. Going to be a big temp gradient. Could see 20-25 degree difference between abe and phl 

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19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The low track this storm though isn't as favorable. That had a coastal low which had a little bit of a northeast component. This low track looks to be right over philly. Going to be a big temp gradient. Could see 20-25 degree difference between abe and phl 

Agree on temp gradient. No icing in Philly, but could see pretty good icing from fall line N+W

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This is going to be exceedingly interesting up in my area. Sunday was a much bigger mess (well Monday morning) as soon as you got over the hill into the Lehigh Valley, this could be ugly up here.

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Quick question, if possible. 

How do you forecast the amount of ice/icing? What are the parameters for saying, for example, there will be 1/4" of ice? Of course air and ground temps, and expected precip amounts are part of it.  

 

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Wxsim with 6z data - has snow starting by 6am with S+ by 7am and a heavy mix of snow/IP by 9am then ZR by late AM...it shows temps briefly getting to 33.5 by 3pm and then slipping a bit - very similar to Sunday. Of note - still ice and snow in the trees and even on my road here in East Nantmeal - also snowing lightly currently at 27.3

.

Wednesday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A mix of snow,
 sleet, and freezing rain likely in the morning, then a mix of freezing rain,
 rain, and sleet likely in the afternoon. High 34. Wind east around 5 mph in the
 morning, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow
 or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Above-ground freezing rain
 accumulation up to 0.7 inches.

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WXSIM with 12z pretty consistent with 6z with a little less ZR accumulation

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening, becoming partly to mostly cloudy after
 midnight. A slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 24. Wind northwest around
 3 mph in the evening, becoming east-northeast after midnight. Chance of
 precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a
 tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about a quarter inch.
 
 Wednesday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A mix of snow,
 sleet, and freezing rain likely in the morning, then a mix of freezing rain,
 rain, and sleet likely in the afternoon. High 34. Wind east-southeast around 5
 mph in the morning, becoming south-southwest in the afternoon. Chance of
 precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and
 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Above-ground
 freezing rain accumulation up to 0.5 inches.

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Maybe areas just to the west of the Susquehanna River (Darlington) are more prone to CAD than those just to the east of the Susquehanna River (Port Deposit) and therefore have justified a WWA and more ice accrual west of the Susquehanna River or perhaps Sterling and Mt. Holly need to get on the same page. I think Sterling thinks 4-8 X more ice will accrue than does Mt. Holly.

Maybe Ray and Mitch can discuss hahaha...

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28 minutes ago, Jurassic Wanderer said:

A half inch of ice on trees and power lines would undoubtedly lead to outages. I'm surprised western Chester County isn't under an advisory. 

I’ll take the under on that times a thousand 

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Just now, Jurassic Wanderer said:

I demand the NWS in Mt Holly issue a WWA for western Chester County. ;-) 

You will get it with this afternoon update 

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Looks like the latest NWS snow graphic has cut back on snow and ice totals for Western Chesco....

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18 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

Looks like the latest NWS snow graphic has cut back on snow and ice totals for Western Chesco....

Not surprising models have been ticking NW.

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20 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

Looks like the latest NWS snow graphic has cut back on snow and ice totals for Western Chesco....

Yup, last 24hrs things have amped up a little meaning more warmth faster. Also main slug of precip responsible for thump could miss us to the nw 

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Winter weather adv out for most for light snow and light ice accumulations. 

8388CB22-3721-4CC1-8C77-B301FBD89910.png

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Looks like nothing more than another nuisance event. Starting to wonder if this will be another one of those winters where my cross-country skis sit idly in the closet the whole time.

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25 minutes ago, greg ralls said:

Looks like nothing more than another nuisance event. Starting to wonder if this will be another one of those winters where my cross-country skis sit idly in the closet the whole time.

Yeah I just  don't think we are getting a major winter storm this year. I was psyched a couple of weeks ago when it seemed the pattern was going to set up one system after another but each storm seems to find a way to keep the significant winter precipitation out of our area. I guess we'll see. 

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1 hour ago, Jurassic Wanderer said:

Yeah I just  don't think we are getting a major winter storm this year. I was psyched a couple of weeks ago when it seemed the pattern was going to set up one system after another but each storm seems to find a way to keep the significant winter precipitation out of our area. I guess we'll see. 

I haven't even fired up the snowblower. Just not enough to warrant a blower. 

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My final call, icing will be there also nw of fall line

Untitled2.png

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1 minute ago, Jurassic Wanderer said:

I actually bought one this year! Should have spent the money on a guitar. 

kiss of death buying a snow blower lol

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11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

kiss of death buying a snow blower lol

Yeah of course right? I really thought this was going to be a big year snow wise. I guess I shouldn't write it off yet when we are still 2 weeks away from President's Day. 

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18z data came in slightly colder here in NW Chester County and the WXSIM is now forecasting a somewhat tougher time getting us above freezing....still gets us there but barely. Also raises the ice accumulation back up to 0.7" 

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 23. Wind northwest around 2 mph in the evening, becoming east-northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)      mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about a quarter inch. Wednesday: Dense overcast. A mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain likely in the morning, then a mix of freezing rain and sleet likely in the afternoon. High 33.     Wind southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.7 inches.       

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