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Chubbs

January 16th-17th, Miller B Goode

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Just now, Chubbs said:

 

Yes still a ways to go on this one. GEFS has a little more amplified look at 06z, stretching the trough southward. One member is closed off with a big snowstorm. A few have more substantial snows from arctic front stalling.  Like the slow moving arctic front better than Miller-B for our area.

 

Agreed big time, lets go with the arctic front instead of miller B, we know how those go. But if we can get this h5 energy to close off under us, I'll take that too.

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16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Agreed big time, lets go with the arctic front instead of miller B, we know how those go. But if we can get this h5 energy to close off under us, I'll take that too.

Our 2 big snows in Jan 14 were from lows on arctic front, so a bigger storm is possible if there is enough amplification

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The younger generation have become very spoiled with all the major snowstorms we have had lately. If they don't see a sub 990 low off the coast that doesn't drop 12+" it's a considered a bad run. If these forums existed back in the 70's and 80's some would have jumped off skyscrapers because all we got were 2-4" 3-6" type storms all the time. And those of us who were alive back then enjoyed everyone 

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43 minutes ago, Feb said:

The younger generation have become very spoiled with all the major snowstorms we have had lately. If they don't see a sub 990 low off the coast that doesn't drop 12+" it's a considered a bad run. If these forums existed back in the 70's and 80's some would have jumped off skyscrapers because all we got were 2-4" 3-6" type storms all the time. And those of us who were alive back then enjoyed everyone 

Back in my day!!!

 

 

image.jpg

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Just my opinion based on the spacing of everything but if it did close off under us I think it would heavily favor inland areas...i think the best bet for the city is a ukie/gfs solution 

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The 06 navgem is very similar to euro: arctic front-->offshore low-->Deep low over NE with closed low at 500 mb

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10 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Just my opinion based on the spacing of everything but if it did close off under us I think it would heavily favor inland areas...i think the best bet for the city is a ukie/gfs solution 

If you can get that closed low under us and get that 2nd low pressure closer, the city wouldn't have an issue either imo. The front would already be through. I mean if this thing hugs or tracks inland then yes different story. I just don't know if we are going to be able to swing that low closer. The flow is progressive. That ridge coming east is going to have to put the brakes on a little allowing the trough to amplify more

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1 hour ago, Feb said:

The younger generation have become very spoiled with all the major snowstorms we have had lately. If they don't see a sub 990 low off the coast that doesn't drop 12+" it's a considered a bad run. If these forums existed back in the 70's and 80's some would have jumped off skyscrapers because all we got were 2-4" 3-6" type storms all the time. And those of us who were alive back then enjoyed everyone 

Lol from March 1967 until January 1978 PHL had no (none, zippo, nada, the big o (not that big o), niente)  events of 7" or greater. 

In the last 11 seasons, there have been 13. 

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

Lol from March 1967 until January 1978 PHL had no (none, zippo, nada, the big o (not that big o), niente)  events of 7" or greater. 

In the last 11 seasons, there have been 13. 

 I'm like you with the thunderstorms, but for me it's in terms of snow. As long as it snows, I'm fine. I don't need monster events, they just create more of a PITA. Not saying I wouldn't want it, but a 1-3" or 2-4" event is just as good to me as a monster storm.

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45 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

ukmet

 

ukm2.2018011612.108.lant.troplant.prp.fc

ukm2.2018011700.120.lant.troplant.prp.fc

Only the UKMET can squeeze >1" water equivalent out of a 1020mb low.

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2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Only the UKMET can squeeze >1" water equivalent out of a 1020mb low.

thats why we love it so much

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Only the UKMET can squeeze >1" water equivalent out of a 1020mb low.

looks like your german model does .5-.6 from a 1023 lol. Actually thats combined from wave 1 and 2, so yes go Ukmet

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

looks like your german model does .5-.6 from a 1023 lol

Hey, hey, hey, no criticism of that model is permitted on this board. ;) 

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

Hey, hey, hey, no criticism of that model is permitted on this board. ;) 

I had to look closer cause I couldn't believe it but thats combined from wave 1 and 2. Not just from the one wave that the ukmet has.

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

I had to look closer cause I couldn't believe it but thats combined from wave 1 and 2. Not just from the one wave that the ukmet has.

When the British and the German's agree lock-it-up

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

I had to look closer cause I couldn't believe it but thats combined from wave 1 and 2. Not just from the one wave that the ukmet has.

06z run?

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Just now, Rainshadow said:

06z run?

yea, it has like 10-15 mm close to philly

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

yea, it has like 10-15 mm close to philly

Then its time to rush to the supermarket today, because its as good as a lock.  Come to think of it, I am going to the supermarket now.

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

Then its time to rush to the supermarket today, because its as good as a lock.  Come to think of it, I am going to the supermarket now.

Make sure you pick up the 12 pack of beer for the 29th

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Just now, Rainshadow said:

Then its time to rush to the supermarket today, because its as good as a lock.  Come to think of it, I am going to the supermarket now.

 

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Make sure you pick up the 12 pack of beer for the 29th

I didnt realize it was a byo.

Getting back to the Euro, curious to see which way the 12z run goes (because after all 120hrs out it is the definitive run, not) if we are falling into the pattern of 00z run hot, 12z run not so hot, or when one of them says uncle. 

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

 

I didnt realize it was a byo.

Getting back to the Euro, curious to see which way the 12z run goes (because after all 120hrs out it is the definitive run, not) if we are falling into the pattern of 00z run hot, 12z run not so hot, or when one of them says uncle. 

Personally, I think it will back off some. That was one of thee most amped up members in the eps. Most of them were further offshore with that low. 

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Gfs def has a stronger vorticity associated with the closed low in the northern plains this run compared to 6z. That may  help to try and dig this thing later on. Looks like a bit more ridging pushing towards the east coast

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it's not as aggressive with diving the closed low above the lakes further south, but it has more energy on the back side. Would think we see more of a coastal low representation on this run if that continues. Just not sure it can go neg tilt in time, it's pretty pos tilted currently. 

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Gfs def has a stronger vorticity associated with the closed low in the northern plains this run compared to 6z. That may  help to try and dig this thing later on. Looks like a bit more ridging pushing towards the east coast

Digging further west and raising heights on EC as front approaches.

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