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Chubbs

January 16th-17th, Miller B Goode

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IF you had to draw a line, where is the rain/snow line going?

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Euro cut back from the wet 0z run. Low not as amped up. Still a general 1-3 from nw burbs to LV. Pocs do best 

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Wxsim with 12z has no mixing issues....but very little qpf with only 0.13" - 1" to 1.5" should do it

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The latest outlook from State College (as of 1:30 this afternoon) forecasts 3-5" over the majority of Lancaster County. I would love for that to verify but I have a hard time seeing it.

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http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/  Eric Horst is pretty much 1-3 and I agree that 3-5 is probably too high.  Usually State College is pretty conservative, we'll see.

15 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

The latest outlook from State College (as of 1:30 this afternoon) forecasts 3-5" over the majority of Lancaster County. I would love for that to verify but I have a hard time seeing it.

 

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On 1/16/2018 at 11:38 AM, Rainshadow said:

Veteran's day storm both DC & BOS were rocked and I know NYC wasn't.  Not something you see every day though.

Anyway, just posting these to see who wins.

 

 

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PR_000-120_0000.gif

Of the three at VAY, the RDPS was correct, but for the Poconos and Sussex County/NW NJ it looks like the wettest German model FTW. Maybe not yikes territory after all.

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Of the three at VAY, the RDPS was correct, but for the Poconos and Sussex County/NW NJ it looks like the wettest German model FTW. Maybe not yikes territory after all.

ICON wasn't terrible at philly either. Tight cutoff, looks like .15 on it

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

ICON wasn't terrible at philly either. Tight cutoff, looks like .15 on it

I ended with .21" w/e here.  Icon about a county too north for us.  Looks like a rgem/icon comp would have worked the best here.

PHL ASOS had 0.07" for the event.

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10 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

ICON wasn't terrible at philly either. Tight cutoff, looks like .15 on it

Another look at the Euro.  It was a tale of two Euros.  The night runs were relatively stable, albeit the trof was too deep.  The day runs were all over the place.  This is rare to see that much of a difference at 500mb from 48hrs to 24hrs as occurred on the day run.  Granted these are 12hrs apart in fcst time.  Remember when there were only night runs of the Euro?

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index.giff.gif.c16e3a6eea3f86a93da0c653b89d6068.gif

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