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Chubbs

January 16th-17th, Miller B Goode

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10 minutes ago, Boch23 said:

What is the timing of tomorrows nonsense?

quite the spread. I guess it's the 2 waves?

WinterPrecipOnset.png.4bb6b0d01690d9efa95511cc1fd0d5bf.png

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5 minutes ago, eastonwx said:

quite the spread. I guess it's the 2 waves?

WinterPrecipOnset.png.4bb6b0d01690d9efa95511cc1fd0d5bf.png

Well it’s cause the front gets hung up to the West due to developing low pressure. Once that low moves that’s front comes east 

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GFS was a bit more positive tilt with the trough, which cut back precip N&W, and spread more precip towards the 95/Nj areas. 

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Excuse the banter but I have a 0620 flight out of KABE on Wednesday morning into KPHL with a  0815 departure from there. Seems like this should all go on time, anyone think differently?

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2 minutes ago, Bender said:

Excuse the banter but I have a 0620 flight out of KABE on Wednesday morning into KPHL with a  0815 departure from there. Seems like this should all go on time, anyone think differently?

I can't see philly getting much accumulation right now. There could still be some lingering precip around that timeframe in the city. Also, I think other airports affect philly too? Nyc and boston could have issues. 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I can't see philly getting much accumulation right now. There could still be some lingering precip around that timeframe in the city. Also, I think other airports affect philly too? Nyc and boston could have issues. 

Luckily the philly to ABE flight just goes back and forth and spends the night in ABE. Seems like I should be fine.  In coming flight to DFW is usually not from the east coast.

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This thing really has high bust potential so either of those cities might end up getting less in the end. But delays should be minimal at this point.

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12 minutes ago, cg41386 said:

This thing really has high bust potential so either of those cities might end up getting less in the end. But delays should be minimal at this point.

Or we might end up getting more.

Surface temps are newr freezing for NYC. Very fickle situation.

Upton has 1-3 here

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33 minutes ago, cg41386 said:

This thing really has high bust potential so either of those cities might end up getting less in the end. But delays should be minimal at this point.

Haven't had a bust all season just overperformers. Lock it up 21 pages and counting!! 2+ for my area can we do 3!?....yes we can

 

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For NW Chester County with 18z data WXSIM program showing flurries starting tonight and off and on tomorrow...steadier snow holds off till after 8pm tomorrow with snow ending by 7am on Wednesday morning. Total snow accumulation 2" to 4" 

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Pretty amped up NAM run probably can’t put too much stock in it. Brings some mixing issues 

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22 minutes ago, Feb said:

0z Nam much more generous with the precip 

 

Be nice if that verified, but you know the nam, loves to juice things up

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Be nice if that verified, but you know the nam, loves to juice things up

Like the 18z.... lol 

 

anyhow; 0z NAM:

 

 

IMG_9279.PNG

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Rgem really blows up precip over the region tomorrow night into wed morn. Low closer in and stronger. 

513_100.gif

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KPHL temp profile at beginning of precip. Close, but cold enough for snow me thinks. Should evap cool and stay throughout .

IMG_9280.PNG

IMG_9281.PNG

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