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Chubbs

January 16th-17th, Miller B Goode

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GFS quicker to get secondary going over Va has 1-3" in area highest in S Jersey.

CMC also in the 1-3 range highest  N+E.

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1 hour ago, Feb said:

Wow at the euro 

The PNA spoke is very impressive.  You gave up the other day when the models didn't show anything. This storm will likely change the pattern.

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06 gfs is a little stronger vs 00z. Warm air near the surface from ocean cuts back totals near shore.

clippergfs11106.png

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Last four Euro night runs for Wednesday:  The way the general 500mb pattern lock down has occurred with the Euro this winter, we are still about two days away.

f240.gif.692b57b9eecc39a936954ad2d6a51930.gif

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f192.gif.02f6e884d3cbf59c0966b58a8e3a3c1e.gif

f168.gif.3279d10289c55e18a13a98c4dc7bbd69.gif

 

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EPS mean now with a notable tick up from 12z yesterday. Philly now at 2.5" on mean. Highest in sne due to typical miller B fashion, but still solid on mean. 

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Six days is an obvious modeling eternity, but at this point the Euro's ensemble mean looks alot like the other globals.

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_7.png.2d5a247cbf52fb563907678fcb3eff97.png

 

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

EPS mean now with a notable tick up from 12z yesterday. Philly now at 2.5" on mean. Highest in sne due to typical miller B fashion, but still solid on mean. 

The 100% we will measure guarantee on the EPS this season is >4.7" (oddly GEFS is lower), so you are only halfway there, please work on it.

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2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Six days is an obvious modeling eternity, but at this point the Euro's ensemble mean looks alot like the other globals.

 

 

Yup, not bad but we need further south cyclogenesis and closer to the coast. This type of system could very easily have a precip swath that moves due north that keeps it east of philly or skirting the coast. 

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

The 100% we will measure guarantee on the EPS this season is >4.7" (oddly GEFS is lower), so you are only halfway there, please work on it.

Yup, then I'll work on the 0s club for you again with snow cover and a pig of a high coming over head. I can just smell the potential

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yup, not bad but we need further south cyclogenesis and closer to the coast. This type of system could very easily have a precip swath that moves due north that keeps it east of philly or skirting the coast. 

I haven't really had a chance to look at much last couple of days and not that I really pay deep attention to anything beyond day 5, but my initial thought that it was too progressive for anything but an advisory type snow, but the 00z run did or inferred an overall slower progression.  Plus I am scheduled to work on the 16th, so everyone has that going for themselves.

 

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Just scrolled through the ems members, probably half and half on precip. Half develop low south of our latitude getting precip in. Other half develop it at our latitude and start to blossom the precip just north of here. Need to get it develop off delmarva or orf to get something solid. 

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

I haven't really had a chance to look at much last couple of days and not that I really pay deep attention to anything beyond day 5, but my initial thought that it was too progressive for anything but an advisory type snow, but the 00z run did or inferred an overall slower progression.  Plus I am scheduled to work on the 16th.

 

Thats what we were discussing yesterday. With that ridge kicking east it's going to act as agood kicker preventing anything from really wrapping up and keep it moving. 

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yup, not bad but we need further south cyclogenesis and closer to the coast. This type of system could very easily have a precip swath that moves due north that keeps it east of philly or skirting the coast. 

This has improved steadily over past couple of cycles. In addition to being N+E, Also small chance that it could get too strong/west, like last nights euro, particularly for SDe and SJ.

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Just now, Chubbs said:

 

This has improved steadily over past couple of cycles. In addition to being N+E, Also small chance that it could get too strong/west, like last nights euro, particularly for SDe and SJ.

Yup, thats very true, could easily wrap up and screw this area too.

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I'll just say it now, since we know it's coming, congrats VAY

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

I'll just say it now, since we know it's coming, congrats VAY

Given its a Miller B, shouldn't you really say, congrats Monmouth County (or is that a given?).

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2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Given its a Miller B, shouldn't you really say, congrats Monmouth County (or is that a given?).

Both are a given

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See how the German has that heavy band right over VAY, it's a given

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29 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

See how the German has that heavy band right over VAY, it's a given

And you wonder why I :wub: the German Model.

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One thing to also watch out for is there is a primary low over the great lakes. So gotta see how much BL warmth is generated from that before coastal gets going. Thats why you want earlier development so you can cut off the southerly wind fetch and shift it to more northeast. Or get that primary low further south.

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