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GFS is showing rain to snow possibility. east and slower again. cold is catching up

 

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1 hour ago, Laddm said:

GFS is showing rain to snow possibility. east and slower again. cold is catching up

 

It doesn't.  I am not sure if you are using tropical tidbits, but these web sites algorithms assign ptype based on the thermal profile at the end of the 3 or 6 hr period.  Not that I believe any GFS output @138hrs, but its rain or nothing at all.

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4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

It doesn't.  I am not sure if you are using tropical tidbits, but these web sites algorithms assign ptype based on the thermal profile at the end of the 3 or 6 hr period.  Not that I believe any GFS output @138hrs, but its rain or nothing at all.

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That cold front is the real deal whenever it comes in

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7 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

That cold front is the real deal whenever it comes in

Having elements for the Falcons to deal with is not going to help them. 

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I view PSU e wall,  tid bits and weather.us. Usually dont give any merit to anything outside 120hr. Today was forecast to b 40 at my local 6 days out and now it may not hit 30.The cold has been winning the battle since early dec.  January thaw always shows up for a week or so then back to normalcy.  I appreciate analytics and such but am somewhat snow bias cause it pays the bills! Besides who dosent like a snowy sloppy game....unless u cant run the ball!

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29 minutes ago, Laddm said:

I view PSU e wall,  tid bits and weather.us. Usually dont give any merit to anything outside 120hr. Today was forecast to b 40 at my local 6 days out and now it may not hit 30.The cold has been winning the battle since early dec.  January thaw always shows up for a week or so then back to normalcy.  I appreciate analytics and such but am somewhat snow bias cause it pays the bills! Besides who dosent like a snowy sloppy game....unless u cant run the ball!

Mitch was pretty astute expecting that was not happening, too much cold air in place.  Plus six days ago some models didnt have it snowing on Thursday and that changed the thermal landscape.  

I am just trying to keep it real here.  There is a difference between posting I think the GFS will be too warm/west on Saturday because of PNA spiking vs posting the GFS is showing rain to snow possibility which neither the 00z or 06z run had "as is".

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Problly out of here before game time.  At 18z which is mid dayish is shows snow. Now if this model is only showing upper level precip then its not possible.gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png GFS on tid bit has back end snow

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24 minutes ago, Laddm said:

Problly out of here before game time.  At 18z which is mid dayish is shows snow. Now if this model is only showing upper level precip then its not possible.gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png GFS on tid bit has back end snow

This is what I was posting to you about, that this algorithm applies the 18z thermal field as the ptype generator for the entire six hour period.  This is LNS, its too warm for snow at 12z, cold enuf for snow at 15z, but nothing falls after 15z.  So that transition .03" is not all going to fall as snow if temps drop linearly, but the ptype algorithm because its cold enough for snow at 18z, applies it to the entire 6 hour period.  The reverse happens when precip starts, it sometimes shows rain when it would not necessarily be all rain depending on the time steps.

 

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Laddm,

I'm going to post this in the other thread too, for better or worse, the bias corrected GEFS is suggesting a faster evolution of the event.  Current 12z GFS has no precipitation after 7 am on Saturday.

Bias corrected left from PSD, NCEP GEFS right.

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t850_anom_f144_usbg.png.1715cbbad4a89ad62874e4c1d6884d22.png

 

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Im always appreciative of the explanations concerning the nuts and bolts of the forecasting and thank you for sharing your knowledge. 

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Windy is a lock, temperatures should be in the 40's or 50's and falling. 

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3 hours ago, Mitchg said:

Windy is a lock, temperatures should be in the 40's or 50's and falling. 

The windier the better!  

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Noles has already proven he can't play in frigid weather. Weather conditions will be nearer his last good game against the Giants. Nothing like being a dog in a game where you have home field advantage against a less than Lombardi team.

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1 hour ago, Harbourton said:

Noles has already proven he can't play in frigid weather. Weather conditions will be nearer his last good game against the Giants. Nothing like being a dog in a game where you have home field advantage against a less than Lombardi team.

I’m a panthers fan so they play Atlanta twice a year... don’t sleep on them they’ve got some talented guys. I think windier/colder the better, they are an indoor/turf team 

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Trends this morning look colder with a faster frontal passage by game time. 

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How quickly they forget how well you played against New Orleans last time you were in the playoffs.  EAGLES!

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NAM into the upper 20's by the end of the game with flurries. 

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Trends continue to freeze out the Falcons, mid 20's during the game with temps below freezing by Saturday morning. 

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34 minutes ago, Harbourton said:

Which Eagle has to bring it besides Noles? My choice is Fletcher Cox.

Big V. I’m still convinced Pederson isn’t going to run the ball enough and if the left side of the O line goes turn style it’s all over...

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1 hour ago, Harbourton said:

Which Eagle has to bring it besides Noles? My choice is Fletcher Cox.

Ajayi - had 130 yards against Atlanta earlier in the season if they give him the ball.

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