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Potential Winter Storm Threats II

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1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

This one has alot of potential with the big PNA spike

Yea the PNA spikes but it is a quick spike and the tough crashes into the west coast. Any storm that forms will be over Bermuda. 

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10 minutes ago, Feb said:

Yea the PNA spikes but it is a quick spike and the tough crashes into the west coast. Any storm that forms will be over Bermuda. 

I'm officially revoking your bus pass.  

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49 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

I'm officially revoking your bus pass.  

You can find me here. Also the euro is a big YAWN. 

IMG_0564.GIF

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6 minutes ago, Feb said:

You can find me here. Also the euro is a big YAWN. 

IMG_0564.GIF

The almighty Euro

Euro still shows a favorable setup at h5 for a snowstorm next sunday.

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A couple pics is fine, but lets try not to clutter this thread up with the yawn or boat pics. This is a potential storm thread, not a banter one.

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I think there are two possible chances before we turn warmer. The Sunday period looks interesting as there is a pretty strong s/w diving down from the northern plains. Issue there is, a lot of s/w floating around and it's not allowing the flow to amplify enough to turn the corner or develop. Also,  the Monday/tuesday period after that which looks like another strong s/w dives down again. 

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I think there are two possible chances before we turn warmer. The Sunday period looks interesting as there is a pretty strong s/w diving down from the northern plains. Issue there is, a lot of s/w floating around and it's not allowing the flow to amplify enough to turn the corner or develop. Also,  the Monday/tuesday period after that which looks like another strong s/w dives down again. 

The Tuesday deal has a better chance but the whole trough is just too Far East. The 18z GFS developes a weak low off the coast simply because the ridge out west is barreling east because of what's behind it. The Sunday deal I would give 5% chance of occurring. The Tuesday deal maybe 20%. I know some are thrilled by the PNA spike but it is a very progressive flow. Nothing like last Thursday 

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25 minutes ago, Feb said:

The Tuesday deal has a better chance but the whole trough is just too Far East. The 18z GFS developes a weak low off the coast simply because the ridge out west is barreling east because of what's behind it. The Sunday deal I would give 5% chance of occurring. The Tuesday deal maybe 20%. I know some are thrilled by the PNA spike but it is a very progressive flow. Nothing like last Thursday 

last thursday was also all reliant on the pna spike. Without that, thursday would of never happened. I agree though it is a progressive flow. Nothing has changed in that regard. I still think both those periods have a chance. 

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25 minutes ago, Feb said:

The Tuesday deal has a better chance but the whole trough is just too Far East. The 18z GFS developes a weak low off the coast simply because the ridge out west is barreling east because of what's behind it. The Sunday deal I would give 5% chance of occurring. The Tuesday deal maybe 20%. I know some are thrilled by the PNA spike but it is a very progressive flow. Nothing like last Thursday 

You do realize the 16th is 9 days away which is an eternity

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10 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

You do realize the 16th is 9 days away which is an eternity

Anthony, I get you see a snowstorm at every turn. I bet you could take a GFS map on July 4th and convince yourself the 15 day map could deliver a snowstorm on July 19th. But you are setting yourself up for disappointment if you think last Thursday is happening again next week. Next week is a very progressive flow. I mean big time. If you watch the ridge on the west coast it is roaring east, leading to the thaw behind it. You are going to need precise timing with everything, no room for error to pull it off. Thankfully I can voice my opinion here unlike other places where it is frowned upon 

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Several of the 18z GEFS have a decent look early next week. Timing differences but many have some snow or nearby misses. Until the EPS become more interested in the threat I still think it is a long shot. This is also about early next week and not the short term thread started for the January 11th-14th threat. 

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7 minutes ago, Feb said:

Several of the 18z GEFS have a decent look early next week. Timing differences but many have some snow or nearby misses. Until the EPS become more interested in the threat I still think it is a long shot. This is also about early next week and not the short term thread started for the January 11th-14th threat. 

Like you stated, it's gonna depend on how fast that ridge kicks east as that will punt the trough east. The amplitude of that ridge though is darn impressive. 

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Like you stated, it's gonna depend on how fast that ridge kicks east as that will punt the trough east. The amplitude of that ridge though is darn impressive. 

Yes it is. i have no doubt a storm will form somewhere. But is it in the Tennessee Valley which would be great or is it 400 miles off shore?? 

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Like you stated, it's gonna depend on how fast that ridge kicks east as that will punt the trough east. The amplitude of that ridge though is darn impressive. 

Its hard to champion/expect a more zonal flow to win in January, the OP GFS is delivering one of the more amplified solutions among its members, especially the 12z run.

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Let's see if the EC produces at hrs 204-228. Looks interesting at 198. 

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4 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Let's see if the EC produces at hrs 204-228. Looks interesting at 198. 

 

R4lGMSo.gif

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5 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Let's see if the EC produces at hrs 204-228. Looks interesting at 198. 

Euro shows light snow for Philly

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Just now, Snowlover11 said:

Euro shifted way further east. It still shows alot of rain for the coast but rather icy for interior areas of PA and NY

That is the weekend storm. 

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42 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Let's see if the EC produces at hrs 204-228. Looks interesting at 198. 

it has a solid pna spike out west but the energy crashing into the west coast is going to argue for that to come east. This was one of the 2 possible shots of some wintry weather before we get into more sustained warm temps

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19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

it has a solid pna spike out west but the energy crashing into the west coast is going to argue for that to come east. This was one of the 2 possible shots of some wintry weather before we get into more sustained warm temps

I planed a househunting trip in BGM land on the 19th to time it perfectly with the warm-up ;). Wouldn't give up on middle of next week but after that the main act of the thaw starts. 

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10 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

I planed a househunting trip in BGM land on the 19th to time it perfectly with the warm-up ;). Wouldn't give up on middle of next week but after that the main act of the thaw starts. 

still a decent signal for middle of next week on eps that is worth watching. 

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

still a decent signal for middle of next week on eps that is worth watching. 

What kind of signal? Coastal or Miller B?

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