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January 11th-14th Wave Train, Is There Any Snow In The Last Car Or Will We Need Feb's Yacht Because Of All The Rain?

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per gefs, our best chance is wave 3, weak on most modeling currently

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11 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

The setup isn't bad. There will be 2 waves. The main one might be a cutter but nothing is set im stone yet. These long range storms have been modeled awful on the models. We have to see how it looks when it's close.

Seriously the skill scores have not been that different from last winter.  Go back a year and you will see the one year anniversary of the back the truck thread.

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15 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Seriously the skill scores have not been that different from last winter.  Go back a year and you will see the one year anniversary of the back the truck thread.

The models use to be great from medium range, especially the Euro. Euro use to nail storms a week out.

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18 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

The models use to be great from medium range, especially the Euro. Euro use to nail storms a week out.

I see no appreciable day seven 500mb drop off in skill scores for the Euro or any model.  I think the Euro does better in nino winters than nina winters or its bias to phase early and often coincides more with nino patterns than other enso states, but its not as if it (or any other model) falls off the cliff in non nino winters.

acz_wave120_NH500mb_day7.png.73341355ecda90bb3663dc887939e3ec.png

 

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31 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

The models use to be great from medium range, especially the Euro. Euro use to nail storms a week out.

We can lol about the actual forecast values, but the Euro pretty much nailed this morning as being cold cold cold from the start at day 10. 

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Lol at the 12z GGEM. Now has the wave 2 in Tennessee 

IMG_0560.PNG

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Looking forward to a soaker. Be nice to get rid of all this salt 

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Looking forward to a soaker. Be nice to get rid of all this salt 

Ggem actually forms a third wave overtop of us with more light rain. Glad I never liked this threat. A big pile of yuk from the get go though I am sure Anthony will be here soon to tell me the GFS was 2.5 miles east this run compared to the 6z run 

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8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Looking forward to a soaker. Be nice to get rid of all this salt 

I am also onboard with one or two soakers since we need the rain. A further west wave 2 gives more room for #3.

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Could be some flooding issues up in New England. Lots of snow going to melt and two soaking rainstorms with frozen rivers is a disaster waiting to happen. 

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gfs has had a wave #3 vort recently;  and 12z isn't that far from snow here. Going to take several days to shake out.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh168_trend1718_12.gif

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So wave one is rain. Wave two is rain and now we are banking on wave three? I have a headache 

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2 minutes ago, Feb said:

Euro and EPS want nothing to do with this threat.?

Doesn't mean it has to be cause of snow.. pretty solid rain maker and over frozen ground could have some issues 

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

Doesn't mean it has to be cause of snow.. pretty solid rain maker and over frozen ground could have some issues 

Yea a lot of rain but it doesn't have any follow waves that might be white. Hopefully the rain isn't as heavy as the euro has 

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4 minutes ago, Feb said:

Yea a lot of rain but it doesn't have any follow waves that might be white. Hopefully the rain isn't as heavy as the euro has 

The majority are rain, but there is a bump up in the snow mean in that late sat-mon period. Not a huge signal there, but it's not completely dead just on life support. 

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Looking forward to a soaker. Be nice to get rid of all this salt 

It's probably because of all of the minor events we have had where they've salted, but I can't remember the last time there was THIS much salt out there.  It's on everything...signs, roads, cars, etc.

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4 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

It's probably because of all of the minor events we have had where they've salted, but I can't remember the last time there was THIS much salt out there.  It's on everything...signs, roads, cars, etc.

Yea I noticed that too. Everything is covered with it and guess what? The NWS has a WWA for tomorrow here in Lancaster for an inch of snow and ice. Guess what that means??? 

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That was a pretty decent signal on the 12z gefs for something late Saturday into sunday.  EPS had a little support no where near as bullish as gefs. 

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1 hour ago, mshaffer526 said:

It's probably because of all of the minor events we have had where they've salted, but I can't remember the last time there was THIS much salt out there.  It's on everything...signs, roads, cars, etc.

Seems like every year the hysteria surrounding winter weather reaches a new fervor, complete with the media saturating us with weenie terms like bomb cyclone and polar vortex.  The various DOT's follow suit with ever increasing salt budgets placating the notion that there can never be a slippery road.    Can anyone remember the days when the roads weren;t brined when there was a flurry in the forecast?    And how many times the roads are brined when nothing happens.     

Back OT, I see reasonable odds that we see something wintry during the minor setback before torchtime gets underway for real days 10-25.

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PNA has been + for a majority of the Met winter from what i remember. Seeing the EPO more + makes me think thats our thaw period. Really liking that slightly-EPO on the 13th with very +PNA. IMO!!... that is a colder storm possibility.

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27 minutes ago, Laddm said:

PNA has been + for a majority of the Met winter from what i remember. Seeing the EPO more + makes me think thats our thaw period. Really liking that slightly-EPO on the 13th with very +PNA. IMO!!... that is a colder storm possibility.

Your post didn't disappear, I moved it into an existing thread about this event.

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