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Chubbs

12/14 & 12/15 Clipper Mania

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Which was expected considering they tend to go plentiful usually in qpf. EPS had about .15 or so to philly. 

Your favorite, the German Model has about .12" in PHL, looks like a tenth to Gilly.

PR_000-048_0000.gif.b363ff1b539219fc5ef9230c4dec0c4e.gif

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Wxsim shows 0.13 for my area of Chesco so maybe a little more with ratios than last storm (1.3"). Heaviest out here around the 3pm hour all over by 5pm - quick hitter

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3 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

Wxsim shows 0.13 for my area of Chesco so maybe a little more with ratios than last storm (1.3"). Heaviest out here around the 3pm hour all over by 5pm - quick hitter

When you have it occur in a narrow window of time, there isn't much time for settling cloud microphysics aside. Just on that alone ratios should be greater than 10:1.

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Here is the Cobb table for phl off the 06z NAM. Avg is 15:1. So above average even with some discounting.

 

 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
171215/0700Z   1  36003KT  22.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
171215/0800Z   2  VRB02KT  22.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
171215/0900Z   3  VRB01KT  21.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
171215/1000Z   4  VRB01KT  21.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
171215/1100Z   5  VRB01KT  21.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
171215/1200Z   6  VRB01KT  21.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
171215/1300Z   7  VRB01KT  22.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
171215/1400Z   8  VRB02KT  23.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
171215/1500Z   9  VRB02KT  24.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
171215/1600Z  10  VRB01KT  25.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
171215/1700Z  11  VRB01KT  25.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
171215/1800Z  12  VRB01KT  25.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
171215/1900Z  13  VRB02KT  25.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
171215/2000Z  14  02004KT  24.0F  SNOW   13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   13:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
171215/2100Z  15  02004KT  24.2F  SNOW   15:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034   15:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
171215/2200Z  16  35003KT  24.3F  SNOW   17:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054   16:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10  100|  0|  0
171215/2300Z  17  34003KT  24.5F  SNOW   14:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064   15:1|  2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16  100|  0|  0
171216/0000Z  18  32003KT  24.9F  SNOW   17:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024   15:1|  2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0

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HRRR is a little slower than other guidance to get snow going and favors coastal NJ. RAP is similar.

HRRR11zclipper2.gif

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1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

Was just about to post about the HRRR/RAP...wonder if they're both onto something. Hope not. 

They are also a little further north than other guidance. They were good with the last clipper but were also aligned with the other last minute modeling.

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They were both excellent with the clipper...I do think they are on to something...thinking this is looking like a PHL on east special

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1 hour ago, chescopawxman said:

They were both excellent with the clipper...I do think they are on to something...thinking this is looking like a PHL on east special

Can probably go by start time out here. After one low end, before noon high end.

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

HRRR is a little slower than other guidance to get snow going and favors coastal NJ. RAP is similar.

HRRR11zclipper2.gif

I'm responding to Chubbs's post, but this is open to anyone else who cares to respond.

Sorry to ask this questions since the top posters already know the answer, but for us noobs, will Kuchera represent the best indication of snowfall with respect to ratios? I'm not asking for weenie reasons. The reason I'm asking is that my daughter has an important hockey practice this evening in Aston in preparation for two games against the league leader tomorrow. I would really hate for her to miss the practice, but if we have to drive from Middletown to Aston for two hours in 1"/hour rates, I don't want to risk it (although I'm a Michigander originally, I've only driven in moderate/hard snow twice in the last 20 years).

If we take the HRRR at face value, it doesn't seem to be a big deal. But my P&C said 2.6".

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15 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

I'm responding to Chubbs's post, but this is open to anyone else who cares to respond.

Sorry to ask this questions since the top posters already know the answer, but for us noobs, will Kuchera represent the best indication of snowfall with respect to ratios? I'm not asking for weenie reasons. The reason I'm asking is that my daughter has an important hockey practice this evening in Aston in preparation for two games against the league leader tomorrow. I would really hate for her to miss the practice, but if we have to drive from Middletown to Aston for two hours in 1"/hour rates, I don't want to risk it (although I'm a Michigander originally, I've only driven in moderate/hard snow twice in the last 20 years).

If we take the HRRR at face value, it doesn't seem to be a big deal. But my P&C said 2.6".

I wouldn't take any model at face value. 1-2 is a good call. Heaviest between 2 and 5 on that route and it will taper and end quickly, so probably OK but you will know by 4-5 what conditions will be like.

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10 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

I wouldn't take any model at face value. 1-2 is a good call. Heaviest between 2 and 5 on that route and it will taper and end quickly, so probably OK but you will know by 4-5 what conditions will be like.

Thanks, this is very useful info.

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Even where the northwest drift is the way of life with the models, basically we were sniffing cirrus until the 18z run 24hrs prior to onset.  There was no convection to muddy the waters this time.  I don't have an explanation for this one.  Granted for this area it was a (very poorly timed but nevertheless) climo clipper event, but still to go from 0 to .1 to .2 w/e this close in, that's not good from a modeling perspective.

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58 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Even where the northwest drift is the way of life with the models, basically we were sniffing cirrus until the 18z run 24hrs prior to onset.  There was no convection to muddy the waters this time.  I don't have an explanation for this one.  Granted for this area it was a (very poorly timed but nevertheless) climo clipper event, but still to go from 0 to .1 to .2 w/e this close in, that's not good from a modeling perspective.

Have mentioned this at the office several times. My personal view is we are paying the price for cutting back in AK with the balloon launches. 

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15 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Have mentioned this at the office several times. My personal view is we are paying the price for cutting back in AK with the balloon launches. 

Interesting Mitch. The northwest drift has been worse than average.  

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

Interesting Mitch. The northwest drift has been worse than average.  

I like them when I'm on the outside looking in. If I'm on the inside, I will curse like a sailor. 

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7 hours ago, Chubbs said:

I wouldn't take any model at face value. 1-2 is a good call. Heaviest between 2 and 5 on that route and it will taper and end quickly, so probably OK but you will know by 4-5 what conditions will be like.

It ended up so bad that it took an hour to get from just south of the canal to Christiana Mall and an hour back after giving up in frustration

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It ended up so bad that it took an hour to get from just south of the canal to Christiana Mall and an hour back after giving up in frustration
Four hours from PHL to Allentown... My flight from Dallas to Philly was shorter!

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On 12/15/2017 at 7:06 AM, Rainshadow said:

:bye:

I will stick the beer in the snow to keep it cold.

This looks like a stronger repeat of Wednesday night in which everything happens within a couple of hours with a 1" or greater thump within an hour in the favored area right during the Friday evening commute.  This has all the makings of my 15 minute commute took me an hour to get home. 

 

That was almost a low bias.

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