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chescopawxman

Winter 2017-18 Chester County PA Forecasts

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Back by popular demand....here we go with the 1st...but not last Wxsim forecast for snow events for the new winter season

Forecast initialized at 7pm on 12/7/17

Saturday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. High 28, but temperatures falling in the
 afternoon. Wind northeast near calm in the morning, becoming north in the
 afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches.
 
 Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Moderate fog. A slight chance of snow. Low 22.
 Wind chill ranging from 15 to 26. Wind west around 3 mph in the evening,
 becoming 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. No snow
 accumulation expected.

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Wxsim forecast for NW Chester County Pa using 6z NAM/GFS

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A
 chance of snow after midnight. Low 15, but temperatures rising after midnight.
 Wind chill ranging from 6 to 19. Wind northeast near calm in the evening,
 becoming 6 mph, gusting to 16 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 40
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch.
 Snow accumulation about half an inch.
 
 Thursday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. High 19. Wind chill around 3. Wind
 north-northwest around 15 mph, gusting to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation 80
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an
 inch. Snow accumulation 3 to 5 inches.

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Wxsim text forecast with 12z data - also of note has quite a bit of sleet and IP Monday night into Tuesda AM....one event at a time here

WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at  1:00 PM Jan 3, 2018
 _______________________________________________________________________________
 
 This afternoon: Partly cloudy. High 27. Wind southeast around 2 mph.
 
 Tonight: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after
 midnight. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after
 midnight. Low 15. Wind chill ranging from 5 to 19. Wind east-northeast around 2
 mph in the evening, becoming north around 7 mph after midnight. Chance of
 precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a
 quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches.
 
 Thursday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in
 the afternoon. High 20. Wind chill around 3. Wind north around 14 mph, gusting
 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches.

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With the 18z data not surprisingly beginning to lower forecasts for the NW burbs...a general 3" to 5" for now

 WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at  6:00 PM Jan 3, 2018
 _______________________________________________________________________________
 
 Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A
 chance of snow after midnight. Low 17. Wind chill ranging from 6 to 23. Wind
 north-northeast around 2 mph in the evening, becoming 7 mph, gusting to 16 mph,
 after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2
 inches.
 
 Thursday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in
 the afternoon. High 20. Wind chill around 4. Wind north-northwest around 15 mph,
 gusting to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches.

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12 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

With the 18z data not surprisingly beginning to lower forecasts for the NW burbs...a general 3" to 5" for now

 WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at  6:00 PM Jan 3, 2018
 _______________________________________________________________________________
 
 Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A
 chance of snow after midnight. Low 17. Wind chill ranging from 6 to 23. Wind
 north-northeast around 2 mph in the evening, becoming 7 mph, gusting to 16 mph,
 after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2
 inches.
 
 Thursday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in
 the afternoon. High 20. Wind chill around 4. Wind north-northwest around 15 mph,
 gusting to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches.

Whatever the nam and gfs do, that will just regurgitate. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Whatever the nam and gfs do, that will just regurgitate. 

Exactly I have it set as a 50/50 split between those 2 models - so hopefully the forecast is a good middle of the road solution

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40 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

Exactly I have it set as a 50/50 split between those 2 models - so hopefully the forecast is a good middle of the road solution

I figure if we can get a good .2 qpf we should be good for 3-4

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WXSIM not quite as enthused for a sub zero low as my NWS point and click...NWS has one below and WXSIM says + 2...I generally side with NWS but I think WXSIM will win this one as I see us staying on the plus side of zero tonight....lower spots - for sure below but here it is a very rare event. WXSIM. Regarding the Monday winter event...WXSIM sees only .08" of liquid but sees a bit more snow or sleet than ZR....with a high of 31 vs the NWS 32 - either way timing will be the issue...even .05" of liquid irrespective of whether the air temp it's 31 or 33 will freeze with the cold ground and snow cover etc. I would expect at WWA tomorrow even though it is minimal regarding accumulation/accretion

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