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Rainshadow

EPS VS GEFS Eight Day Snowfall Outlooks For PHL. Final Results Are In!

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3/26 0z: 0

3/26 12z: .1

3/27 0z: .3

3/27 12z: 1.3

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3/28 0z: .3

3/28 12z: .9

3/29 0z: 1

3/29 12z: .4

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14 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

3/31 0z: 2.2

3/31 12z: 4.4

There has only been one zero forecast this season in which PHL measured (0.3"), 2nd test incoming.

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On 4/1/2018 at 7:59 AM, Rainshadow said:

There has only been one zero forecast this season in which PHL measured (0.3"), 2nd test incoming.

I don't know if Philly managed to scrape one tenth after 8 am today, but either way, the "zero test" held.

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4/1 0z: 5.1

4/1 12z: 6.3

4/2 0z: 5.5

4/2 12z: 2.6

4/3 0z: 4.4

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

4/1 0z: 5.1

4/1 12z: 6.3

4/2 0z: 5.5

4/2 12z: 2.6

4/3 0z: 4.4

In the 100% Philly will measure range. (>4.7")

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12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

4/3 12z: 4.4

4/4 0z: 8.1

4/4 12z: 6.3

If Philly does not measure, this would be the biggest EPS bust of the season.

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4/5 0z: 2.9

4/5 12z: 1.5

4/6 0z: .9

4/6 12z: .3

4/7 0z: .1

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

4/7 12z: 0

4/8 0z: 0

4/8 12z: .1

Yeah 00z run on the 10th we will call it a day.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

0 remainder on eps

I am going to have to wait til the 18th to post results.  In spite of the biggest bust of the season still not totally factored in, the bias should end up less than last season, although accuracy is going to be worse.

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Here are a couple of tables and charts.  Overall bias was better than last season, but skill dropped by an average of about half an inch.

 

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