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Rainshadow

EPS VS GEFS Eight Day Snowfall Outlooks For PHL. Final Results Are In!

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Well we will see how our ensemble competitors do this snow season.   Last season there was a general 2:1 overforecast of snow for PHL, aided by the Sleet/freezing Rain & Not Snow Storm in March.  The worst underforecast was the truck back up storm of early January.  Last winter, if you wanted a guarantee for Philly to measure snow, the EPS mean had to be at least 2.3" and the GEFS 2.5".

Here are a few graphs from last snow season.  GEFS starts out this season with a 1.1" average (10:1 ratio) through 7 pm December 8th. Forecasts are along the X axis, observed Y axis.

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

euro

12/1 0z: 0

eps

12/1 0z: .4

You don't have to do the OP til we get within 84hrs of an event.  The .4" is 11:1?

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

You don't have to do the OP til we get within 84hrs of an event.  The .4" is 11:1?

ok, makes it easier on me. Yea it was .4, times that by 1.1 and it got .44, so rounded down

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8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

ok, makes it easier on me. Yea it was .4, times that by 1.1 and it got .44, so rounded down

Yes.  For the record that makes the GEFS three times snowier (1.2") than the EPS. 

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4 hours ago, Mitchg said:

I'm going to sadly wager we only get 50% of the ensemble promised snow this winter. 

Think positive!! ;)  It will be a record setting year of snow. Snow will stick around until August!!

 

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36 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

12/3 12z: 2.2

Close to the "measuring" guarantee of last year.  Converting to 11:1 would be 2.5" for this season.   Also third straight ensemble clustering in which the EPS was snowier than the GEFS.

 

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11 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

LOL is 12z, going to be zero?  Its gone 3, 2, 1....

12z will be 6

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