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Rainshadow

Meteorological Winter Pattern Discussion, Hello Nina

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We are out in weenie-ville, but umm got NINO? That is not at all a nina look, very nino esque with Aleutian low/ ridge on west coast, split jet. You have your polar jet to the north and southern jet to the south. Not over powering cold nor is it warm either. Certainly would be stormier. 

eps_z500_anom_noram_360.png

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19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

We are out in weenie-ville, but umm got NINO? That is not at all a nina look, very nino esque with Aleutian low/ ridge on west coast, split jet. You have your polar jet to the north and southern jet to the south. Not over powering cold nor is it warm either. Certainly would be stormier. 

eps_z500_anom_noram_360.png

Yeah southeast ridge on the side of a milk carton.

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

Yeah southeast ridge on the side of a milk carton.

Mitch loves the se ridge

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

What's not to love?  :wub:;)

9pm sunsets

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

We are out in weenie-ville, but umm got NINO? That is not at all a nina look, very nino esque with Aleutian low/ ridge on west coast, split jet. You have your polar jet to the north and southern jet to the south. Not over powering cold nor is it warm either. Certainly would be stormier. 

eps_z500_anom_noram_360.png

Ehhh,.. I don't think that's as promising as it looks. Retreating PV into Siberia and PAC jet on roids blasting into mainland Canada. Call me skeptic I guess. 

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21 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Ehhh,.. I don't think that's as promising as it looks. Retreating PV into Siberia and PAC jet on roids blasting into mainland Canada. Call me skeptic I guess. 

Agreed it's not a great look was just showing that we are going opposite of what we should be looking at right now. It's not a cold pattern nor warm but stormier.  Stratosphere wise though, it's a better pattern. Aleutian low+Siberian high helps with pv disruption.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Mitch loves the se ridge

;) don't jinx it or it will start showing on the models. 

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Just now, Mitchg said:

;) don't jinx it or it will start showing on the models. 

Ooo it's coming for you Mitch

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Ooo it's coming for you Mitch

Hopefully a repeat of last Jan where the nw shift due to the ridge  brought the snow inland. 

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23 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Hopefully a repeat of last Jan where the nw shift due to the ridge  brought the snow inland. 

yea the storm where I was under 35 dbz and the sun was coming out lol. Then it goes over your area and it's 2"/hr snow

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Charlie, I moved the outlooks into the outlook thread, not that they would necessarily be easy to find, but in here they almost definitely will get buried.

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I would certainly take this look moving forward. That would offer some chances IMO if that look held. Split flow with northern and southern stream coming together.

eps_z500_norm_noram_336.png

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Out in weenie-ville and probably will be gone but I don't think I have ever seen a wave 3 hit on the strat like the euro op had

 

ecmwf_z50a_nh_40.png

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Not a ton of change in EPS run today. Very nino look with split flow, ridging into AK, trough in southwest. Se ridge comes alive but is also met with a PV close to Hudson Bay area. So you get a very compressed flow right over or just to our north.  Could get lucky if we can minimize the se ridge look, because I think it will be pretty stormy in that timeframe with energy spitting out of the Southwest. I'd rather be in Detroit area to Burlington though. 

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Some big warming in enso 1.2 this week while 3.4 had a big drop off. They are now equal in terms of temps. Not sure it's an east base still right now

IMG_1231.PNG

IMG_1232.PNG

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1.2 always has alot of volatility.  The natural progression with ninas (or ninos) is for the first sign of decay is in this region.  Not saying this is the case now, just speaking in generalities.

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2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

1.2 always has alot of volatility.  The natural progression with ninas (or ninos) is for the first sign of decay is in this region.  Not saying this is the case now, just speaking in generalities.

Makes sense then why feb is usually warmest month?

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