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Rainshadow

Weekend of November 18th-19th Rapidly Intensifying Great Lakes System With Predicted Strong LLJ Over Our Area

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While we will initially on the warm sector side, its Canadian journey will pump up the -nao again for an increasing confidence cold Thanksgiving week.  This has been fairly consistent the last couple of days and we are nearing that day 5 threshold where the model bias of over intensification at longer forecast ranges disappears.  Pretty intense intensification for a land based system, but not unusual for November. 

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Just looking at the placement of that low over the lakes, it makes me think of the Edmund Fitzgerald.  Superior is going to be impassable of that verifies!

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11 hours ago, mshaffer526 said:

Just looking at the placement of that low over the lakes, it makes me think of the Edmund Fitzgerald.  Superior is going to be impassable of that verifies!

Frightening for you, I thought the same thing a couple of days ago.

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For only the 2,939,013,867th time, the GFS is fastest with the cfp of the big four models next weekend:

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GFS has trended weaker on this 12z run, Canadian looks equally as strong (and thus slower).  At this point I would go for op modeling consensus vs thinking either of these has keen insight.

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Ginger Zee said "Look out for number 2" tonight.

I think she meant storm #2 this coming weekend? :o

Hype machine revving up?

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11 hours ago, cbelke said:

Ginger Zee said "Look out for number 2" tonight.

I think she meant storm #2 this coming weekend? :o

Hype machine revving up?

Maybe meant the one near Thanksgiving Day?  The weekend one is all rain Philly metro.

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The Euro oddly weakest of the big 4 with the weekend system.  Also the slowest.  But fear not, for 2,939,013,869th time, the GFS has the fastest cfp solution.

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Time sensitive again and don't know if this was too weak of an op run, but there was a paradigm shift with the upper air pattern on the 00z run vs last night's:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f120.php

The ensemble mean is about equally a more positive tilt/progressive solution, but not sure if its a follow the leader occurrence (could say the same thing about the GEFs in the opposite direction).  120 hours is normally around the time that the models come close to a reasonable scenario solution to the upper air pattern (surface details always take longer).  This day run has more meaning than usual.  

 

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14 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Time sensitive again and don't know if this was too weak of an op run, but there was a paradigm shift with the upper air pattern on the 00z run vs last night's:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f120.php

Euro started breaking with the pack on yesterday's 12z run. A coup if right.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Jeez look at the difference in the pna region

The PNA spike on the Euro comes midweek and really digs the cold down into the Northeast.  Both models show the Great Lakes low becoming a 50/50 under the -nao which aids in buckling the flow, comes down to positioning

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7 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Maybe meant the one near Thanksgiving Day?  The weekend one is all rain Philly metro.

Nope, the one this coming weekend. Looked like snow up NY State and N.E., rain down this way on Sat.

Just me being sarcastic as well for the way the "World News" hypes 30 billion people in the path of this storm... Then hands off to Ginger Zee who does her entire forecast in 10 seconds.  I like Ginger, but she can't cover what's really happening in the time allotted.

 

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In terms of a slower cold frontal timing and a later intensification, it sure is edging the Euro's way:

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Future runs will tell where we go from here with this, but for now both the GFS & Euro have about an 80 mph llj @ 850mb passing over our region on Saturday night.  (This map is in kph)

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The Euro is equally as strong with about 75 mph at 850 mb saturday night, the GFS and other models were down to 65-70 mph at that level.

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What's the timing of this on Saturday? Still Saturday afternoon/evening?

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1 minute ago, cbelke said:

What's the timing of this on Saturday? Still Saturday afternoon/evening?

looks later now. More like night into sunday morning. 

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Thanks. That's what I thought. Might be heading out to see my wife's nephew at State College, PA and maybe go to the game at 4 PM. Guess I'll take some rain gear with me.

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1 minute ago, cbelke said:

Thanks. That's what I thought. Might be heading out to see my wife's nephew at State College, PA and maybe go to the game at 4 PM. Guess I'll take some rain gear with me.

GFS has a burst of rain sat aftn. Then more rain night into sunday morning. Euro is overnight into the morning

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I didnt check the Euro, but the GFS's predicted LLJ tonight remains around 65 to 70 mph.  The soundings are not adiabatic and mixing some of those strong winds down is dependent on thunder or tremendous pcpn loading neither of which looks that likely.  But on Sunday, the predicted sounding goes adiabatic (more so than our last strong wind threat), so gusts reaching 40 to 45 mph seem the most likely outcome for most of our area.  

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