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tombo82685

Potential winter storm threats

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I mentioned this a couple days ago but watch the period around Thanksgiving. This is a pretty solid setup here on the gefs.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_47.gif

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This just popped up on the 6z gfs, was there on the 0z run but was further north. The gefs aren't to excited over it either.Need to get a good pna surge for this so that big closed low can come further south. But there is a piece of energy rotating around on the periphery of it that if you amplify the flow enough and back it could produce something. The 6z gfs run had a coating to an inch over the area with this shortwave for this coming Sunday

Untitled 3.gif

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Again off the 6z gfs, this is for my Thanksgiving chance. But this is pretty solid right here. You have your pna spike. a huge sprawling 50/50 low caught under the west base -nao. In that situation that h5 low would either have to go underneath it or phase with that 50/50 low and just become a massive cut off closed low underneath the block. It could also get sheared out as it's moves east.

gfs_z500a_namer_39.png

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12z gfs continuing to show that s/w embedded in large closed low swinging south of us  this Sunday. That's the best legit chance of some snow falling that I have seen from gfs. 

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You can see it here on 12z gfs. Doesn't look quite as robust as 6z. But these would atleast produce some widespread snow showers. Pretty potent piece of energy embedded in it. 

IMG_1203.PNG

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Tom's turkey day system more robust at 12z - still way out in time but at least it is plausible w 50/50

gfs_z500aNorm_us_39.png

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

Tom's turkey day system more robust at 12z - still way but at least it is plausible w 50/50

gfs_z500aNorm_us_39.png

Gefs showing the tombo turkey mauler potential:

 

 

IMG_7507.GIF

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euro in Dr No mode. Need to get the weekend system that becomes a 50/50 sorted out first.

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6 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

euro in Dr No mode. Need to get the weekend system that becomes a 50/50 sorted out first.

The ridge out west is to far east which causes the trough in the east to be to far east. That pacific look needs to shift too. Can't have a trough right on the west coast, thats where the ridge needs to be. That will give it the spacing to turn the corner and not crushed into FL. 

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3 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

EPS vs GEFS around this time frame:

 

 

 

all about ridge/trough placements. GEFS much more favorable 

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06 gfs has rain--> snow across area on Tday. Big differences remain between euro/eps and gfs/gefs.

gfs_asnow24_eus_37turkey.png

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Euro drives down a reinforcing shot of cold for Tom's Turkey Day possible event.  As he mentioned yesterday shift this west more and we have a better shot.  GFS all about it.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017111400_198_5436_310.png

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weather.us has eps snow depth forecasts out to 15 days. Philly has gone from near zero for tday --->zero in past couple of cycles.

Screenshot-2017-11-14 Weather forecast ensemble for Philadelphia.png

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6-10 day & 8-14 day analogs have one day each with measurable snow at PHL  (1.0") near the loading day. This event on 11/21/2008.  

112112.png.gif.4fd2856f4bf748f8fb4e071be59a8f14.gif

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While not a snow storm, still looking good for flurries and snow showers on Sunday

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

While not a snow storm, still looking good for flurries and snow showers on Sunday

if we only had a little more amplified pattern. Shift the ridge out west further west and amplify it more. This is a potent piece of energy

 

gfs_z500a_us_fh120-150.gif

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Thats a pretty sexy h5 look from day 6 onward on gefs. Would give lots of chances with amplifying pna ridge. 

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End of OP euro run looks interesting. Low turning up the coast with a broad high pressure in the the Great Lakes.

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7 hours ago, Chubbs said:

weather.us has eps snow depth forecasts out to 15 days. Philly has gone from near zero for tday --->zero in past couple of cycles.

Screenshot-2017-11-14 Weather forecast ensemble for Philadelphia.png

Several members showed a snowfall somewhere the region just after Thanksgiving 00z today was much better than 12z , new members should be out in a hour.

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I think the T-giving storm or thereabouts is on life support for wintry weather. Just need seeing jet amplification to tap into some cold air. 

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22 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I think the T-giving storm or thereabouts is on life support for wintry weather. Just need seeing jet amplification to tap into some cold air. 

Probably gotta wait till afterwards , that weekend now. Too much volatility in the med range right now.

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4 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Probably gotta wait till afterwards , that weekend now. Too much volatility in the med range right now.

Yea there are signs on eps in the 26-28th range of NOV

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I'd watch this period, the one I mentioned above. This has a decent look to it. As is always the case this time of year is cold air access. 

eps_z500_norm_noram_240.png

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EPS def showing some potential in the nov 26-29th range. Issue is can we get the shortwave below us cause I think the cold air will be there. 

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