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Rainshadow

2017-18 QPF Comparison Ending November 19th Event: Euro & EPS Share 1st Place, NAM Thanks The GEFs For Saving It From Last Place (Again).

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I will check with Tom on when to start and the logistics.  The 0.1" criteria with the GFS giving out qpf as if it was Halloween candy we had nearly 50 predicted (thanks GFS) or observed events last cold season.  Anyway comes as little surprise that the NAM averaged the most inaccurate while the EPS averaged most accurate (and the lowest wet bias, all models averaged too wet) last cold season.

Sheet 1 on this attachment has some highlights.  The most accurate model for the specific event is highlighted in red, the least accurate highlighted in green.  I will try to add the snow results on Sunday.  These are average errors:

Capture.JPG.33f4b534292edac07811f63b5505be9b.JPG

new2016-7qpf.xlsx

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euro

11/6 0z: .05

11/6 12z: .78

11/7 0z: .47

11/7 12z: .8

eps

11/6 0z: .27

11/6 12z: .43

11/7 0z: .52

11/7 12z: .67

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Roughly (and pending the 7/12z) looks like the EPS may have left off from where it was last season and the nam wins the non al dente soggy noodle contest also.  PHL pcpn total looks like 0.38".

 

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First evaluated event of the cold season, the EPS won and the NAM lost.  At least for one event, this is the same pattern that occurred last cold season, the EPS was most accurate, the NAM most inaccurate. Also the NAM did especially poorly during the first half of the cold season.  This is 12km NAM qpf.  There is old spread sheet data beyond November 7th, I want to do for the snow what I did for the qpf.

NEW2017-8qpf.xlsx

 

 

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Tom,

PHL has been NAMmed with 0.9" on Monday.  Backtracking the runs, can we go back to the 00z run on the 10th?  Looks like that would cover the event (or non event if GFS is right).

 

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Euro

11/10 0z: 0

11/10 12z: 0

11/11 0z: .06

11/11 12z: 0

11/12 0z: 0

11/12 12z: .07

11/13 0z: .12

EPS

11/10 0z: .06

11/10 12z: .03

11/11 0z: .07

11/11 12z: .07

11/12 0z: .09

11/12 12z: .08

11/13 0z: .18

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15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Euro

11/10 0z: 0

11/10 12z: 0

11/10 0z: .06

EPS

11/10 0z: .06

11/10 12z: .03

11/11 0z: .07

Thanks, the nam is a thing of beauty:

index.gif.bea7550cb4c376086258eddfc17b9e6d.gif

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On 11/11/2017 at 7:07 AM, tombo82685 said:

Euro

11/10 0z: 0

11/10 12z: 0

11/11 0z: .06

11/11 12z: 0

11/12 0z: 0

EPS

11/10 0z: .06

11/10 12z: .03

11/11 0z: .07

11/11 12z: .07

11/12 0z: .09

I think early or impending enough that the 00z run on the 13th will be the last.

 

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If this was cold enough for snow, a pleasant surprise would be bandied about if one took the model output literally.  Other than the SREF and one NAM run, the models were way too dry, often pretty much zero.  There was some missing data on one SREF run and in spite of that, it left the other models in the mud.  Congrats NAM 2 of 2 in being dead last.
 

NEW2017-8qpf.xlsx

 

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Tom,

I will text you jic.  00z/14th NAM had 0.11".  Congrats for it.

How far back can you go on the Euro 00z/13th?  I will match the other models as far back as you can see. 

 

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euro

11/13 0Z: 0

11/13 12z: 0

11/14 0z: .02

11/14 12z: .08

11/15 0z: .26

11/15 12z: .11

11/16 0z: .06

eps

11/13 0Z: .03

11/13 12z: .03

11/14 0z: .03

11/14 12z: .12

11/15 0z: .11

11/15 12z: .1

11/16 0z: .06

 

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

euro

11/12 12z: 0

11/13 0Z: 0

11/13 12z: 0

11/14 0z: 0

eps

11/12 12z: 0

11/13 0Z: 0

11/13 12z: 0

11/14 0z: 0

 

Thank-you.  18z nam up to .13". 

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6 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Thursday morning.

Oooo when I read your text it seemed like it was for tonight. Thats gonna change, I'll re do it tonight. 

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Oooo when I read your text it seemed like it was for tonight. Thats gonna change, I'll re do it tonight. 

Ok.  As long as you can back to the 00z run on the 14th at the least that would be good.

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7 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

euro

11/13 0Z: 0

11/13 12z: 0

11/14 0z: .02

11/14 12z: .08

eps

11/13 0Z: .03

11/13 12z: .03

11/14 0z: .03

11/14 12z: .12

 

Thanks!

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On 11/14/2017 at 12:06 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

11/13 0Z: 0

11/13 12z: 0

11/14 0z: .02

11/14 12z: .08

11/15 0z: .26

11/15 12z: .11

eps

11/13 0Z: .03

11/13 12z: .03

11/14 0z: .03

11/14 12z: .12

11/15 0z: .11

11/15 12z: .1

 

00z run the 16th tonight will be the last for this one, then I'll let you know about the weeknd.....

The-Weeknd-1.jpg.5df14492b5a820acf9ba481fa2f74d17.jpg

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On 11/14/2017 at 12:06 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

11/13 0Z: 0

11/13 12z: 0

11/14 0z: .02

11/14 12z: .08

11/15 0z: .26

11/15 12z: .11

eps

11/13 0Z: .03

11/13 12z: .03

11/14 0z: .03

11/14 12z: .12

11/15 0z: .11

11/15 12z: .1

 

Dude, when you have a chance, please post the 00z, there is a race to the bottom between the NAM & Op EC on this one.  PHL had .01" & the GFS won.

We can start the weekend system with the 12z run today.

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euro

11/16 12z: .4

11/17 0z: .37

11/17 12z: .5

11/18 0z: .32

11/18 12z: .32

eps

11/16 12z: .4

11/17 0z: .37

11/17 12z: .53

11/18 0z: .4

11/18 12z: .35

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On 11/16/2017 at 6:22 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

11/16 12z: .4

11/17 0z: .37

eps

11/16 12z: .4

11/17 0z: .37

If Philly catches the rain prior to 7 pm tonight, make the 11/18/12z run the last.

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On 11/16/2017 at 6:22 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

11/16 12z: .4

11/17 0z: .37

11/17 12z: .5

11/18 0z: .32

eps

11/16 12z: .4

11/17 0z: .37

11/17 12z: .53

11/18 0z: .4

Yeah 12z today (the 18th) last day.

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