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Rainshadow

2017-18 Model QPF Comparison, April 15th-16th Event OP EC Scores Another Win & Convection Can't Help The SREF From Avoiding Last Place.

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On 4/8/2018 at 9:58 AM, tombo82685 said:

Euro

4/7 0z: .03

4/7 12z: .02

4/8 0z: .03

4/8 12z: .05

4/9 0z: .04

eps

4/7 0z: .1

4/7 12z: .08

4/8 0z: .05

4/8 12z: .05

4/9 0z: .04

Another event where the models went:

 

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Granted most locales had measurable to PHL's trace, but most nearby locations to PHL measured < .05".  Which once again earns the WEFS a last place finish:

43379.jpg.8496bb359e099e66309221a75501eb80.jpg

Meanwhile, the OP EC once again scored another first place win.  The 2nd place EPS doesn't suffer from the same we better sandbag effect that the WEFS does.  Sigh. :(

NEW2017-8qpf.xlsx

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eps

4/13 12z: 1.6

4/14 0z: 1.8

4/14 12z: 2.1

4/15 0z: 2.03

euro

4/13 12z: 2.4

4/14 0z: 3

4/14 12z: 1.83

4/15 0z: 1.73

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23 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

eps

4/13 12z: 1.6

4/14 0z: 1.8

4/14 12z: 2.1

euro

4/13 12z: 2.4

4/14 0z: 3

4/14 12z: 1.83

00z run the 15th will be the last one needed.  B)

 

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Tom,

Thank the WEFS will need to do the UTC Thursday centric event starting with the 12z run yesterday (16th).

The eps are .1+ as well

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euro

4/16 12z: .3

4/17 0z: .02

4/17 12z: .08

4/18 0z:.07

4/18 12z: .12

4/19 0z: .2

eps

4/16 12z: .2

4/17 0z: .1

4/17 12z: .08

4/18 0z: .12

4/18 12z: .12

4/19 0z: .2

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April 15th-16th Event models for the first time in a long time were too low with qpf. Convection helped.  OP EC had the most accurate forecast while the convective happy arw(s) couldn't save the SREF from a last place finish.

NEW2017-8qpf.xlsx

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Could be a big euro/eps failure for this rain events unless the stuff out by Pittsburgh swings through

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Could be a big euro/eps failure for this rain events unless the stuff out by Pittsburgh swings through

They would not be the only ones. 

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

They would not be the only ones. 

To the euro's credit, most of the rain on last nights run for philly was after 15z. 

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

To the euro's credit, most of the rain on last nights run for philly was after 15z. 

You mean they don't have 5 three hour segments of measurable pcpn like the GFS has? :wacko:

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

You mean they don't have 5 three hour segments of measurable pcpn like the GFS has? :wacko:

Euro wasn't much better. It had .1 through 12z at phl, whoops. .2 in gilly, so far only .04

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On 4/17/2018 at 9:52 AM, tombo82685 said:

euro

4/16 12z: .3

4/17 0z: .02

4/17 12z: .08

4/18 0z:.07

4/18 12z: .12

4/19 0z: .2

eps

4/16 12z: .2

4/17 0z: .1

4/17 12z: .08

4/18 0z: .12

4/18 12z: .12

4/19 0z:

You have the 00z EPS?  Looks like they are on their way to being sandbagged and a NAM victory for PHL.

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