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irishbri74

Major Hurricane Irma

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More subtle shifts SW with Irma. Across the conus, little more energy in the trough. Close call for PR/Haiti. Not a good trend for the Bahamas. 

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Wouldn't shock me if models continue to play catch up with this sw track and this goes into pierto rico or Haiti and possibly weakening significantly 

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11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Lol this thing keeps getting pushed back. FL landfall getting higher %

The GFS from a few days ago wasn't trying to bring this thing in by Saturday. But that's before it took the long way down by the Bahamas. I think the euro was more on board with this timeframe. 

Not sure how much slower this can get??

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Candain and UKMET continue the western path into FL before turning north. Main thing today is OTS less likely. 

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I'd give the FL landfall highest chance right now with models continuing adjusting southwest. Trough just not deep enough as of now to pick it up and out

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EPS is the only one holding out for a more eastern track. If 12z Euro still shows a more western track, I will be more locked into a devastating Myrtle Beach hit.

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I'll bet Lynch an invisible dollar the euro goes into FL

I'll bet the number of EPS members OTS shrinks by about half with 12z. 

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13 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I'll bet Lynch an invisible dollar the euro goes into FL

If you really were confident, you'd bet him a Kirkland ball. Rumor has it none of them found any ponds last week.  ;)

Getting back to Irma, the trend is not good.  The track forecasts as stated adjusted south; the trof exit is not any slower and if anything gfs wise slightly less deep overall.

 

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6 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

If you really were confident, you'd bet him a Kirkland ball. Rumor has it none of them found any ponds last week.  ;)

Getting back to Irma, the trend is not good.  The track forecasts as stated adjusted south; the trof exit is not any slower and if anything gfs wise slightly less deep overall.

 

Well for our backyards it's looking better. Heck with that big high over/just to our north that thing may just block Irma from bringing really any big rain here too if it hits south of NC

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Well fornour backyards it's looking better. Heck with that big high over/just tonour north that thing may just block Irma from bringing really any big rain here too if it hits south of NC

A met I knew who used to work at WPC was saying this was reminding him of Hugo and its sadly not trending away from that.

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

In the shorter term, Irma is back moving to the west, its going to have start moving southwest pretty much now to make NHC's 00z forecast point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-jsl-short.html

Did the models continue sw or were they west in terms of movement for next 6 hours 

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Def north of the track right now and could be by a good bit if it continues west track 

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Did the models continue sw or were they west in terms of movement for next 6 hours 

HWRF turns slightly more sw next 6 hours

HMON just a steady wsw (looks like it should be better than the HWRF at 00z)

GFS steady wsw

GGEM less wsw overall and should verify the best of the four at 00z (barring a sharper left turn).

 

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