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Rainshadow

Meteorological Autumn Discussion, Can You Smell The Crispness In The Air?

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I was looking for an unsure emoticon on this tablet, I couldn't tell. 💃

heres one for you  image.png

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11 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

heres one for you  image.png

Ugh.

Anyway next couple of days will tell if the EPS is onto something, or just on something.  GEFs PNA skill drops to zero about half a day later than its NAO skill, so maybe day 8.5 vs day 8. 

This is why week 3 and beyond is often for entertainment purposes only, too far east overall, but nailed the Yukon perfectly:

 

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_2.png

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_3.png

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54 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Ugh.

Anyway next couple of days will tell if the EPS is onto something, or just on something.  GEFs PNA skill drops to zero about half a day later than its NAO skill, so maybe day 8.5 vs day 8. 

This is why week 3 and beyond is often for entertainment purposes only, too far east overall, but nailed the Yukon perfectly:

 

 

 

 

That looks pretty horrible to me for verification. 

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The gefs continue to go full on weenie mode in long range with the pna flexing and a longer duration -nao before that flattens out. EPS are brown turd pattern, but the run last night definitely showed some good variability in the PNA region. Looks like a lot of spread among-st members in that feature. Though, the 6z gefs went towards the eps, so not sure if that was an off run or a move towards it

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

The gefs continue to go full on weenie mode in long range with the pna flexing and a longer duration -nao before that flattens out. EPS are brown turd pattern, but the run last night definitely showed some good variability in the PNA region. Looks like a lot of spread among-st members in that feature. Though, the 6z gefs went towards the eps, so not sure if that was an off run or a move towards it

:wacko:  is for below:

 

index.gif

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

The gefs continue to go full on weenie mode in long range with the pna flexing and a longer duration -nao before that flattens out. EPS are brown turd pattern, but the run last night definitely showed some good variability in the PNA region. Looks like a lot of spread among-st members in that feature. Though, the 6z gefs went towards the eps, so not sure if that was an off run or a move towards it

We have had the EPS vs GEFs difference the last couple of days and after looking at the ERSL site with the outlooked teleconnections I was trying to wrap my head on why the GFS was so cold beyond MJO forcing which doesnt look that superly robust to be a game changer.  Anywho I looked yesterday and noticed this, but wanted to wait for another run to make sure it was the same.  ERSL's bias corrected GEFs at the least is not as cold as the "OP".  Again its beyond day 10, so I take it with a shrug waging based on their morning outlook the -nao starts recycling pacific air here around the 25th. I get paid the same either way.

  t850anom_f240_usbg.gif.f05206bb9ce23f0e6ffff7c41e3b5a8c.gif

t850_anom_f240_usbg.png.f8304df9c3bb1b030dd18864fc4b569e.png

t850anom_f312_usbg.gif.0b5e6de90dbdd65b6203d1f09d5499ac.gif

t850_anom_f312_usbg.png.f2e5d173d939d86e41d6de4eb362428d.png

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5 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

We have had the EPS vs GEFs difference the last couple of days and after looking at the ERSL site with the outlooked teleconnections I was trying to wrap my head on why the GFS was so cold beyond MJO forcing which doesnt look that superly robust to be a game changer.  Anywho I looked yesterday and noticed this, but wanted to wait for another run to make sure it was the same.  ERSL's bias corrected GEFs at the least is not as cold as the "OP".  Again its beyond day 10, so I take it with a shrug waging based on their morning outlook the -nao starts recycling pacific air here around the 25th. I get paid the same either way.

 

Also, the bias corrected ones have a warmer mjo phase too 

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The EPS tendency to crush ridges in the long term is to the GEFS tendency to weenie out on the pna spikes. Both models aren't verifying well with it. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

The EPS tendency to crush ridges in the long term is to the GEFS tendency to weenie out on the pna spikes. Both models aren't verifying well with it. 

There was a time when the GFS used to crush PNA ridges within 48 hours.

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I really don't see a snow producing pattern yet. I mean outside the GEFS constantly wanting to send the pna to santa's house. Everything else looks a little to zonal with PAC puke involved. Granted it looks a little below normal. But you need some man cold with height flow from the yukon. Hgt flow from Central Canada that will get torched from downsloping flow off the Rockies, combined with bringing that airmass over non snow covered land is rather meh. Need that western ridge to really go up to tap a good cold air source. 

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9 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I really don't see a snow producing pattern yet. I mean outside the GEFS constantly wanting to send the pna to santa's house. Everything else looks a little to zonal with PAC puke involved. Granted it looks a little below normal. But you need some man cold with height flow from the yukon. Hgt flow from Central Canada that will get torched from downsloping flow off the Rockies, combined with bringing that airmass over non snow covered land is rather meh. Need that western ridge to really go up to tap a good cold air source. 

Agree. Its early and a ninaish pattern with best snow chances along US/Can border. I'm guessing we will have to go through a relaxation period before better snow chances arrive.

 

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9 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Agree. Its early and a ninaish pattern with best snow chances along US/Can border. I'm guessing we will have to go through a relaxation period before better snow chances arrive.

 

If we can pop a good +pna things can certainly change. We also will have to flush the garbage out of Canada too. 

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perfect example of -nao just blocking slop. Granted that slop yield a little below normal for us, but not enough to warrant snow. If this wan January it could work, not mid to late NOV. 

eps_t850_anom_noram_264.png

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Also, to illustrate GFS bias in longer term. Once past 7 days it's bias is to go to positive with the pna. Once at 7 days and inside it's decent

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlooks

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9 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Also, to illustrate GFS bias in longer term. Once past 7 days it's bias is to go to positive with the pna. Once at 7 days and inside it's decent

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlooks

Yeah, you need a cor > .71 or so to show skill, so basically I have an equal of chance of getting a forecast right by sinking a 9 foot right to left sharply breaking putt on the 18th hole beyond day 8 or so.

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10 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

 

Bias is in the eye of the beholder, once we get to day 7, the OP Euro has been better than the OP GFS in the Conus.  

GFS is top map, Euro bottom.  GFS 168hr 12z warm bias is even worse.

 

Capture.JPG

Capture.JPGa.JPG

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

They need to change the gefs to wefs

No $$$ being spent on this generation GFS.  All efforts pretty much on the next gen. GEFs might have fallen victim of following the OP off a cliff. There were many runs this past week where the OP was near the coldest version just like in summer one is very likely to get a torch OP run time after time. 

  

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